A recent study found that primary health care, conditional cash transfers, and social pensions in Brazil have saved 1.4 million lives over the last twenty years. The Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) coordinated the study, and their research suggests that if these programs are expanded, an additional 1.3 million deaths and 6.6 million hospitalizations could be prevented by 2030. These findings highlight the potential for further impact and positive outcomes from these initiatives.
To prevent an additional 1.3 million deaths and 6.6 million hospitalizations by 2030, global efforts are needed to address the exacerbated poverty and social inequalities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The ongoing war in Ukraine and rising inflation are expected to further exacerbate these issues, leading to what is known as a polycrisis: multiple crises interacting in a way that amplifies their collective impact. The deteriorating socioeconomic conditions also contribute to higher disease rates.The impact of economic crises on health can be severe, particularly for the most vulnerable individuals in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, social programs have the potential to alleviate the health implications of such crises. Brazil has been at the forefront of one of the largest expansions of the welfare state in the last twenty years. This includes the implementation of a universal public healthcare system, as well as conditional cash transfer programs (Programa Bolsa Familia) for the poorest families and social pensions (Beneficio de Prestacao Continuada) for the elderly and disabled.
Reductions in hospitalizations and mortality
In a recent study, Davide Rasella, a researcher at ISGlobal, and his team examined the combined impact of these three programs.The impact of Brazil’s social assistance programs on hospitalizations and deaths has been studied over a period of almost two decades, from 2004 to 2019. According to the study coordinator, Rasella, this is the first comprehensive evaluation of cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care over such a long period in a low- to middle-income country. The study, which utilized data from 2,548 Brazilian municipalities, found that widespread coverage of these programs resulted in decreased hospitalization and mortality rates, particularly among young children and older adults. In total, the programs averted 1.46 million deaths.From 2004 to 2019, the research team utilized forecasting methods to demonstrate that extending the programs to include the newly poor and vulnerable could prevent up to 1.3 million additional deaths by 2030.
“We have clearly shown that expanding these three programs is a feasible strategy to lessen the health impact of the current global crisis,” explains Daniella Cavalcanti, co-first author of the study. “Conversely, implementing fiscal austerity measures would only lead to a significant number of preventable deaths.
