Hunter Biden is on the verge of possibly becoming the first child of a president to face imprisonment due to gun and tax charges. He will be sentenced in November for the gun violations and in December for tax-related issues. However, legal experts believe that he is likely to receive a milder sentence rather than the lengthy prison time that has been suggested by the charges.

The two convictions result from a comprehensive five-year federal investigation. On Thursday, Biden admitted guilt to all nine counts for failing to pay taxes between 2016 and 2019. During his June trial, he faced emotionally charged testimonies regarding his crack cocaine addiction during that period, and he chose to spare his family further distress by unexpectedly pleading guilty to the tax charges.

Biden, aged 54, is now preparing for sentencing, which could range up to 25 years for the gun charges on November 13, and as much as 17 years for the tax charges on December 16. These convictions arose after a plea deal failed in July 2023 that could have allowed him to avoid prison completely.

However, many legal analysts believe that Biden, being a first-time offender, is unlikely to face the maximum penalties when U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika sentences him for the gun case and when U.S. District Judge Mark Scarsi addresses the tax charges.

Federal officials will determine the sentencing guidelines based on the specifics of the crime, mitigating factors like addiction issues, the over $1.4 million in unpaid taxes, and the aim to deter future criminal behavior. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the judges are not obligated to follow these guidelines, and the defense team may request a lighter sentence.

Shanlon Wu, a previous advisor to Attorney General Janet Reno during the Clinton administration, expressed that he would be surprised if Biden faces significant jail time as a first-time offender.

“I believe we should anticipate a relatively light sentence,” Wu commented. “Given the circumstances, it wouldn’t be surprising if the judge opts for probation or home detention.”

Experts suggest that Biden is likely to emphasize his recovery from addiction, the settling of his tax debts before the legal action, and the absence of a need for deterrence regarding potential future offenses.

“At sentencing, I expect he will argue that his issues stemmed from his addiction, which he has since managed and that he has endured challenges that an average citizen, without a political lineage, might not experience,” said Julian Andre, a former federal prosecutor. “The assumption here is that he intends to seek probation, citing the government’s previous stance on the matter two years ago.”

Here’s what to note about the upcoming sentencing:

Experts Believe Biden’s Status Shouldn’t Influence Sentencing

Biden’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, contended that additional charges were brought against him post-plea agreement collapse due to political pressure on Justice Department special counsel David Weiss. However, Weiss stated to Congress that political factors did not influence the investigation.

Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond, mentioned that Scarsi, who is overseeing the tax case in Los Angeles, might impose a harsher sentence given the attention this case has received. “I sense he might be strict at sentencing, particularly because this case has garnered extensive coverage,” Tobias noted.

Nonetheless, Andre remarked that it would be “complicated” for either court to impose a longer sentence because Hunter’s father is the current president.

“I believe the court will uphold that his prominence is not relevant, and he should be treated like anyone else who has pleaded guilty to similar crimes,” Andre stated.

Biden’s Defense May Argue Rarity of Charges

The charges against Biden, which involve lying about his drug use when purchasing a handgun in 2018 and possessing it for 11 days before it was discarded by a romantic partner, are not often prosecuted unless the weapon was used in a violent crime, according to legal experts. Similarly, tax offenses are rarely pursued when the owed amounts have been reimbursed, experts explained.

Additionally, it is uncommon for a defendant to admit guilt on all counts without a predetermined sentencing agreement with prosecutors. Biden can advocate that he accepted full responsibility and repaid the owed sums.

“This is quite an unusual situation,” Wu mentioned. “This allows Lowell to assert that he has completely accepted accountability here.”

What occurred with Hunter Biden’s plea deal?

The plea deal that fell apart in July 2023 was aimed at having Biden admit guilt to two misdemeanor tax offenses related to failing to pay taxes and agreeing to a pretrial program for making false statements while purchasing a gun while under the influence of drugs.

However, there was a disagreement at the plea hearing between prosecutors and defense attorneys regarding whether the agreement would shield Biden from other possible charges in the future. Judge Noreika ultimately rejected this plea deal due to such conflicts.

Biden was worried because he was also facing an investigation regarding potential lobbying for foreign entities, which could violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act. This concern arose from his business arrangements with firms in Ukraine, China, and other nations, something Republicans have highlighted. Nevertheless, he has not yet been charged with foreign lobbying.

Hunter Biden paid his back taxes but was unable to inform the jury

During his guilty plea this week, Biden shared his disappointment that he could not inform the jury about his repayment of taxes and penalties back in October 2021, facilitated by a wealthy friend, Kevin Morris.

“When I was dealing with addiction, my focus wasn’t on taxes; I was striving to survive,” Biden stated. “However, the jury would not learn that I have paid every cent of my past taxes along with penalties.”

Prosecutors opposed this disclosure, arguing it might hinder the enforcement of tax regulations, as someone might simply pay fines to evade charges. Biden revealed he was under investigation in December 2020, and he settled his unpaid taxes and penalties 10 months later.

Hunter Biden became a target for GOP criticism

Political undertones have consistently been present throughout this investigation. Hunter Biden has been a prominent target for House Republicans scrutinizing his father, even after President Joe Biden chose not to run for reelection.

Three committees—Judiciary, Oversight and Accountability, and Ways and Means—published an impeachment report on the opening day of the Democratic National Convention, laden with allegations of influence peddling and obstruction against President Biden.

This report, although not suggesting an impeachment vote, claimed that President Biden was involved in a conspiracy to facilitate financing for his family through interactions with foreign entities during dinners and phone meetings.

In response, the president dismissed these corruption claims as “falsehoods.” Both his brother, James Biden, and his son, Hunter, have denied any involvement by the elder Biden in their business transactions. There was no proof that he discussed business matters during calls with his son while meeting clients.

“It was mere small talk about general subjects like geography or the weather,” commented Devon Archer, a business associate of Hunter Biden, during testimony before a House panel.

Following a March hearing, even some Republicans in the House expressed doubts about the evidence presented against the president.

“What remains elusive, after years of examination, is the definitive link connecting his son’s alleged corruption,” wrote former prosecutor Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., in an opinion article.

Ultimately, it was the Justice Department under his father, employing a prosecutor appointed by Donald Trump—rather than House Republicans—that made significant moves against Hunter Biden. Regardless of the outcome, Joe Biden has stated he will not grant his son a presidential pardon or clemency.