Hurricane Milton is heading towards Florida’s west coast and is predicted to make landfall late Wednesday into early Thursday. In the past few days, meteorologists have frequently changed its classification, trying to assess the storm’s potential for destruction.

The winds have been reported at times as strong as a Category 5 hurricane, but by Wednesday morning, they decreased to Category 4. However, experts believe this classification does not fully convey the storm’s actual threat level.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rates hurricanes based on their maximum sustained wind speeds, which can range from 74 to 157 mph or more. This scale, however, overlooks other perilous aspects of hurricanes such as storm surge, rainfall, river flooding, and tornadoes.

For Hurricane Milton, analysts are especially worried about its increasing size and the likelihood of significant storm surges affecting densely populated regions — factors that aren’t considered in a simple category rating. In contrast, with Hurricane Helene, the wind strength was a major concern since it struck a less populated area with more trees and fragile buildings.

“Milton might be one of the most destructive hurricanes in recorded history for west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center has cautioned.

No matter the category, a threatening and extremely destructive storm surge is expected near and just south of where the hurricane’s eye makes landfall, according to AccuWeather. In fact, as the hurricane approaches Florida, it is growing in size, despite changes in wind speed.

‘An Unprecedented Event’

The hurricane center mentioned, “Milton’s wind field is anticipated to expand further as it nears Florida.” The latest projections indicate that by landfall, the area affected by hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds could double in size. This means that damaging winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall could reach far beyond the expected forecast path.

As of Wednesday morning, the tropical-storm-force winds from Milton extended about 125 miles from its center, and they could reach up to 200 miles from the center at landfall.

According to WeatherTiger’s meteorologist, Ryan Truchelut, Milton will likely cause a storm surge that is unprecedented in recent memory for west-central Florida, with only the major hurricanes of 1848 and 1921 being similar in terms of coastal flooding height and impact.

“The strong wind field in the eastern part of Milton will push a large volume of water onto the Gulf’s shallow continental shelf,” he cautioned. “Even if the maximum wind intensity drops at the last moment, the sheer volume of water hitting land will remain formidable.”

Understanding the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

The Saffir-Simpson scale correlates wind speeds with the kind of damage and effects those winds might cause in the U.S. Typically, as the category increases, the potential damage grows by a factor of about four.

This scale was conceived by structural engineer Herbert Saffir in 1969 during a United Nations initiative, later modified by meteorologist Robert Simpson in the early 1970s. The National Hurricane Center states that it has since been a vital resource for informing the public regarding the potential consequences of various hurricane intensities.

What Damage Could Milton Inflict on Florida?

The actual damage from Milton will depend on where it comes ashore and how its other effects, like flooding, storm surge, and tornadoes, play out. However, the wind speed and category at the point of landfall will significantly indicate the likelihood of power outages and destruction.

A Wednesday morning forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicts the hurricane will approach landfall tonight as a Category 4 with wind speeds around 130 mph.

If it makes landfall as a Category 4 storm, it will likely cause “catastrophic” damage. The National Hurricane Center reports that Category 4 storms can severely damage well-constructed homes, potentially causing them to lose both roofs and walls. Most trees may be broken or uprooted, and power lines may fall.

“Power outages could last for weeks or even months. Much of the area may become uninhabitable for a long time,” the hurricane center warns regarding Category 4 storms.

A Category 3 storm, though not as intense, is still significant. “Electricity and water services could be out for several days to weeks after the storm passes,” the center notes concerning Category 3 hurricanes.

What is Considered a Major Hurricane?

While all hurricanes possess potentially life-threatening winds, those categorized as Category 3 and above are referred to as major hurricanes. Major hurricanes can result in severe to catastrophic wind destruction and loss of life. Every category of hurricane can produce dangerous storm surges and rain-related flooding risks as well.

What are the 5 categories of hurricanes?

Category 1 hurricane: 74-95 mph Winds are very dangerous and can cause minor damage. Well-built homes might suffer some harm to the roof, shingles, vinyl siding, and gutters. Large tree branches can break, and trees with shallow roots may fall. There will likely be significant damage to power lines, leading to outages that may last for a few days to several days.

Category 2 hurricane: 96-110 mph Winds are extremely dangerous and can lead to major damage. Well-constructed homes might sustain serious damage to the roof and siding. Many trees with shallow roots could snap or be uprooted, making several roads impassable. Power loss is likely, with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Category 3 hurricane (major): 111-129 mph Significant damage will happen: Well-constructed houses may experience major roof damage or even lose roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking many roads. Power and water may be unavailable for several days to weeks after the hurricane passes.

Category 4 hurricane (major): 130-156 mph Catastrophic damage can be expected: Well-built homes could suffer severe damage, including the loss of most of the roof and some exterior walls. Most trees will snap or uproot, taking down power poles. Fallen trees and poles may isolate neighborhoods, leading to power outages that last weeks or potentially months. The area may remain uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Category 5 hurricane (major): 157 mph or higher Catastrophic damage is likely: A large number of framed homes will be destroyed, leading to total roof failures and wall collapses. Trees and power poles will fall, isolating communities. Power outages could extend for weeks to even months. Most areas may not be livable for weeks or months.

(This article has been revised to include new information.)