Could November bring unexpected weather?

As the nation prepares for Tuesday’s election, meteorologists are monitoring a low-pressure system forming in the western Caribbean, which is expected to affect the U.S. later this week, although the specifics are still unclear.

This system, labeled potential tropical cyclone 18, has led both the Cayman Islands and Jamaica to declare a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning, respectively, according to the National Hurricane Center. Cuba is also likely to be affected.

According to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski, this system could develop into a tropical storm within a day, potentially named Rafael, and may even reach hurricane strength if it veers west of Jamaica rather than hitting it directly in the following days.

Regardless of its path, Pydynowski anticipates that Rafael will have some impact along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, urging residents in these areas to prepare.

“Even if it encounters cooler waters and wind shear that slow its intensity as it moves north, it will still produce significant wind and rain,” Pydynowski told YSL News. “There will be effects even if it becomes just a tropical storm.”

A Devastating Hurricane Season

These concerns arise during a tumultuous hurricane season that has already caused significant damage thanks to storms like Beryl, Helene, and Milton. This year, the U.S. has faced five hurricanes, resulting in at least 300 fatalities and approximately $130 billion in damages.

Historically, only four hurricanes have made landfall on the U.S. mainland in November, with the most recent being Nicole, which struck Florida just two years ago. The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.

Details regarding the current system’s path and chances of intensifying remain vague. The National Hurricane Center noted that an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was collecting further data on Sunday.

Pydynowski emphasized that conditions in the Caribbean are conducive to strengthening, with low wind shear and slightly elevated mid-80s temperatures.

The crucial factor for the U.S. will be the storm’s behavior after it moves north of western Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, possibly by Wednesday. It might gain strength initially before facing harsh wind shear and cooler waters that could weaken it as it approaches U.S. shores.

“It’s typically challenging for storms to reach hurricane status and strike the central Gulf Coast this late in the season, but it’s not impossible,” noted Pydynowski. “The waters are still warm, lingering in the upper 70s. If the storm moves quickly, it might avoid cooler waters.”

Residents along the southeast coast, particularly in hurricane-prone Florida, would prefer the storm slows down and cooler water dominates.

Ongoing Concerns

The hurricane center reported that a low-pressure trough near the southern Bahamas has triggered showers and storms but will likely merge with the developing storm, which may become Rafael by late Monday.

Despite this, there are signs of more activity in the northern Caribbean and perhaps the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas, Pydynowski highlighted, reminding us that the hurricane season lasts for nearly another four weeks.