The recent changes in college football, including conference expansions and the removal of divisions, have complicated the process of determining which teams will rise to the top in the Power Four.

This summer’s significant realignment has enlarged conference sizes, creating situations where several teams might enter December tied at the top of the standings. Unlike previous seasons, many of these teams won’t have faced each other during the regular season, which has historically been a crucial factor in deciding the top contenders.

This situation opens the door for intricate tiebreaking rules to play a vital role in determining standings.

For instance, in the Big Ten, the initial tiebreaker is the outcome of head-to-head games. The second method evaluates teams based on their records against common opponents in the conference. If teams remain tied, the third method examines records against conference opponents with the best overall records. The fourth method compares the overall winning percentage of all conference opponents.

If the ties persist, the Big Ten will look at the ranking system from SportSource Analytics, which also contributes data to the College Football Playoff. Should that still not resolve the tie, the conference will resort to a “random draw.” Meanwhile, in the Big 12, a coin toss would be the final method of breaking ties.

We can hope that the upcoming weeks will bring more clarity to these conference races. Here’s the latest on the situation within the Power Four:

ACC

Contenders: Miami (5-0), SMU (5-0), Clemson (5-1), Pittsburgh (3-1).

This competition might conclude quietly if Miami and SMU win out, finishing November tied for the ACC lead. If that happens, Miami would almost certainly secure a playoff position, irrespective of the outcome. Clemson and Pittsburgh will face each other on November 19, making that game crucial for the loser. Neither of these teams is currently viewed as a strong candidate for an at-large playoff slot.

If Miami, SMU, and Clemson end up tied, the Hurricanes and Mustangs hold the advantage because they both defeated Louisville, whereas Clemson lost to them. This scenario significantly diminishes the Tigers’ chances, forcing them to win all remaining games while hoping one of the front-runners loses twice. Pittsburgh could finish the remainder of their games successfully but may still miss the chance to play in Charlotte due to a prior loss to SMU.

Louisville’s surge to fifth place in the standings has given them a slight chance, but their losses to both the Hurricanes and Mustangs by narrow margins keep their hopes dim.

Big 12

Contenders: Brigham Young (5-0), Iowa State (4-1), Colorado (4-1), Kansas State (4-2), Texas Tech (4-2).

BYU currently has a one-game advantage and is well-positioned to make it to the conference championship. The Cougars hold the tiebreaker over Kansas State and will not be facing Iowa State or Colorado.

Even if BYU loses once this month, they could still finish as the outright first-place team if Colorado loses again and Kansas State defeats Iowa State in the final game of the season. In that instance, Kansas State would match up with BYU due to winning tiebreakers against Colorado and Iowa State.

If Colorado and Iowa State end the month tied at 8-1 in Big 12 games, Iowa State would prevail according to the league’s third tiebreaker, which considers the teams’ highest-ranked common opponent, Kansas State. In this case, the Wildcats would claim a win against Colorado and a loss to Iowa State.

Big Ten

Contenders: Oregon (6-0), Indiana (6-0), Ohio State (4-1), Penn State (4-1).

Oregon has some leeway to lose a game this month and still secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship, thanks to their victory over Ohio State last month. Their lack of games against Indiana or Penn State also works in their favor. Ohio State’s head-to-head win against Penn State makes their upcoming game against Indiana on November 23 crucial.

Penn State needs Ohio State to win against Indiana but lose to Michigan. This scenario would create a tie between OSU and PSU, with both teams sharing a loss to the Buckeyes. The Big Ten would then resolve the tie by comparing the teams’ records against all conference opponents.

Currently, Penn State’s opponents have a joint record of 22-30, while Indiana’s stand at 19-32. This slight difference will likely change soon, as Indiana is set to play against Ohio State, Michigan, and Purdue. Penn State will conclude their games against Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland. If both teams remain tied after that evaluation, the Big Ten will refer to the SportSource rankings.

SEC

Contenders: Georgia (5-1), Texas A&M (5-1), Tennessee (4-1), Texas (3-1), LSU (3-1), Vanderbilt (3-2), Mississippi (3-2), Alabama (3-2).

There are eight teams still in the hunt for the SEC title.

The regular season has concluded with two losses on record. However, things may become clearer after Saturday’s games, where Alabama will go up against LSU, and Georgia will take on Mississippi. Upcoming matches include the Bulldogs hosting Tennessee and Texas A&M competing against Texas. The simplest outcome could see Georgia and Texas A&M emerge victorious, ending the season as the sole one-loss teams in the SEC.

If LSU manages to win all their remaining games and Texas defeats A&M in the final match of the season, the Tigers will be in a strong position. In the event of a three-way tie between LSU, Georgia, and Texas, the Longhorns would be eliminated due to their defeat by the Bulldogs and the Tigers having a superior overall winning percentage against conference opponents. Currently, the Tigers’ opponents have a record of 23-20, whereas the Longhorns’ opponents stand at 20-25.