The NWSL playoffs begin on Friday, and we might be heading into the most exciting postseason in the league’s history.

The Orlando Pride achieved historic milestones on their way to winning the NWSL Shield, closely pursued by the Washington Spirit, NJ/NY Gotham FC, and the Kansas City Current, making this the strongest top four teams the league has ever witnessed.

Meanwhile, the North Carolina Courage have displayed their ability to challenge any team on their day, and the Portland Thorns, Bay FC, and Chicago Red Stars possess enough talent to create upsets.

Here’s Pro Soccer Wire‘s in-depth playoff analysis, exploring each team’s chances of claiming the title, potential pitfalls, and the key player who could influence their playoff journey.

1. Orlando Pride

Do they have what it takes to win it all?

The Pride set records with 60 points and 18 wins, remaining unbeaten until their 24th match, and they managed to keep their rivals scoreless in half of their league games. With an MVP contender in Barbra Banda, a revitalized veteran in Marta, and solid depth throughout the squad, they have successfully adapted to different strategies, whether through maintaining possession, counter-attacking, or dominating set pieces.

Considering them anything less than serious title contenders would be unwise.

What could go wrong?

Although the Pride was the top team in the league, they do not have the highest expected goals margin— that honor belongs to the Kansas City Current, who have an impressive +29.1 margin. The Pride’s expected goals against (xGA) stats suggest they conceded more scoring opportunities than their actual goals allowed indicate. This discrepancy signals potential vulnerabilities in their defense.

Additionally, Orlando’s recent performance has declined, suffering two losses in their last three matches. Since their 2-0 victory over Washington on October 6, they haven’t displayed their best form. If they can’t recapture their apex performance, other teams could easily dethrone them.

Key Factor: Will Banda regain her form?

In her inaugural 918 minutes in the NWSL, Banda found the back of the net 12 times and provided five assists, showcasing her ability to score in diverse ways and create opportunities for teammates. However, her form diminished during the latter part of the season, where she scored just once and assisted only once in her next 913 minutes.

If the Pride can unleash the unstoppable Banda we saw in the beginning of the season, they stand a great chance of securing their second trophy in a remarkable year. Conversely, if she only manages to perform at a good level, the competition will have a better opportunity to eliminate them.

2. Washington Spirit

Can they clinch the title?

The Spirit matched the record for most wins in a season shortly after Orlando broke it, and they boast the versatility and balance needed for NWSL champions. Their roster is a blend of top-notch skill, creativity, athleticism, experience, and fresh talent, all guided by coach Jonatan Giráldez, who has a strong track record in crucial matches.

Whatever challenge they face, the Spirit likely have a strategy in place. The season-ending injury to Croix Bethune could have crippled their offense, especially given Ouleymata Sarr’s back problems. Yet, Trinity Rodman stepped up, and when she faced her own injury, Ashley Hatch surged into strong form. Even after Andi Sullivan’s injury, which took away a key player, the Spirit adapted effectively, showcasing an all-rookie midfield in dominating performances.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see this team claim another star on their badge.

Potential issues?

While finding solutions has helped the Spirit adapt throughout the season, they have often been forced to change formations and strategies, which may have hindered their cohesion. The team had to reinvent itself multiple times as players unexpectedly became unavailable for critical roles.

If they fall short of a championship, it might stem from this inconsistency, preventing them from perfecting a seamless style, system, and player dynamic.

Key Factor: Is it Rodman’s moment to shine?

In 2024, Rodman has shown exceptional talent, likely earning her a nomination for MVP with her outstanding performance following a successful Olympic stint. She possesses an innate ability to make significant plays during crucial match moments.

However, her comeback from a back injury has been gradual, as Giráldez prioritized her readiness for the playoffs over immediate participation. If Rodman not only returns to play but is also at peak performance, Washington’s chances of success significantly increase.

The discussions around the likelihood of the thinking neutral’s champion becoming a reality are complex. If that doesn’t happen, the Spirit’s journey to triumph will become significantly more challenging.

3. NJ/NY Gotham FC

Is a championship within their reach?

Indeed, it is. In the last two months, Gotham FC has convincingly established itself as one of the top teams in the NWSL, boasting an impressive record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, alongside an outstanding plus-28 goal difference during this period. This includes strong victories over three teams that made it to the playoffs.

Despite the demanding schedule faced by their star players, who are also part of the national teams, as well as events like the Concacaf W Champions Cup and the Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup final, Gotham’s current performance surpasses that of their journey to the 2023 NWSL Championship.

What challenges could arise?

While on this hot streak, Gotham has experienced a couple of setbacks, such as a 4-4 tie against Tigres from Liga MX Femenil and a 3-0 defeat by the Orlando Pride. These results suggest that Gotham may not be as consistent as the other title contenders. Their record against the top five teams in the NWSL is just 2 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, and their expected goals metrics (9.4 vs. 11.7) reveal a deficiency in these crucial matchups.

The most troubling news for Gotham is Washington’s recent 1-0 victory, which secured them a second-place finish. This sets the stage for a major semifinal showdown at Audi Field, rather than Red Bull Arena. This year, Washington has defeated Gotham 2-0 in both league matches, and their home record of 10 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses is the second-best in the league. Facing such a formidable opponent on the road in a must-win playoff match could spell trouble.

Key player: Can Esther keep up her excellent play?

While it might be tempting to highlight other key players on Gotham’s illustrious roster, veteran Spanish attacker Esther has recently shone the brightest. Whether playing as a forward or attacking midfielder, Esther has demonstrated exceptional form. In her last four matches, she netted five goals and provided an assist, which weren’t just simple finishes:

On October 5, against Bay FC, Esther was largely marked out of the game with only 11 touches. Despite this, she remarkably scored twice and assisted once in a resounding 5-1 victory. Every time she gets the ball at the moment, there’s a palpable threat, which is precisely what Gotham supporters hope to see.

4. Kansas City Current

Is victory truly feasible for them?

Several analytics point to the Current as potentially the best team in the NWSL for 2024. In terms of expected goal difference, they lead with a remarkable plus-29.1, while Elo rankings also position them just ahead of Gotham, Washington, and Orlando.

With the championship match scheduled for CPKC Stadium, the Current have the opportunity to host the final, no matter which teams advance. Temwa Chawinga is a strong MVP candidate, proving difficult for opposing teams to contain this season, and new defensive players Almuth Schult, Alana Cook, and Kayla Sharples have greatly reinforced a previously vulnerable defense.

In a league often described as transitional, the Current stands out as a frontrunner, owing to their ability to transition effectively and maintain top form.

What could pose a risk?

Focusing on the Current’s principal issue noticed among the top four teams: they’ve had difficulties defending set pieces throughout the season. With 12 goals conceded from dead-ball scenarios, they’re tied with Racing Louisville for the worst record in the league.

Although Cook and Sharples have provided some aerial strength, the Current still struggle to adequately defend against set pieces, allowing opponents easy opportunities based on positioning. Seven of those 12 goals conceded came from finishing off the initial service, the highest such statistic in the league.

Gotham and Orlando accounted for 11 goals from set pieces, while Washington and Bay FC closely followed with nine each. If the Current continue to struggle in set piece defense, it’s reasonable to assume an opponent will capitalize on corners, free kicks, or throw-ins to score a crucial goal against them.

Key player: Is Chawinga fit enough?

Chawinga, who holds the Golden Boot and single-season goal record, missed the Current’s last regular season game due to a knee injury. While the coaching staff noted it’s a day-to-day situation, reports indicate that she has resumed non-restricted training. However, typically, the portion of training observed by the media includes only light warm-ups at the start.

This brings multiple considerations: Will Chawinga be able to play? Can she start? And if those hurdles are passed, will she be at her peak performance? Losing a player like Chawinga during the playoffs could be detrimental, especially with Bia Zaneratto already confirmed to miss the quarterfinals, meaning the Current is up against a significant challenge.

5. North Carolina Courage

Do they have what it takes to achieve ultimate victory?

The Courage are known for their possession style, holding the ball for 57.2% of their matches this season and accumulating over 1,700 more touches than any other team. This not only reflects their intent to dominate possession but also their ability to control the game’s tempo. Throughout the regular season, no team has out-possessed the Courage in a match, with only one instance (a March 30 win over Gotham) resulting in an even possession split.

When facing NC, opponents are well aware that they will likely struggle to maintain possession, limiting their strategic options. As a result, the Courage enter matches comprehensively understanding how the game is likely to unfold, playing on their terms.

This consistency in dictating match flow gives the Courage a strong chance to secure victories each time they take the field.

What obstacles might they face?

Finishing fifth means that the Courage must navigate at least one away game to progress, and realistically may have to achieve results in three consecutive matches outside of WakeMed Soccer Park.

This is no easy feat for NC in 2024. They suffered 10 losses in 13 road games during the regular season, averaging under one goal per game. This aligns with expected goal statistics and is also evident from gameplay observation. Although they excel at ball possession, the execution, alongside their defensive focus, leads to diminished goal-scoring capacity away from home.

Key player: Can Sanchez and Kerolin collaborate effectively?

Ashley Sanchez has had a fantastic first season with the Courage, despite the fact that she shared the pitch with former NWSL MVP Kerolin for only 209 minutes, which were spread across five games. This was anticipated, considering Kerolin’s recovery from a torn ACL sustained late last year, and combining these two talents has been a strategic advantage for NC.

Building attacking chemistry can take some time, and while Sanchez mentioned building a quick rapport back in August, it hasn’t fully materialized in games yet. This isn’t a critique of either the players or the coaches; rather, it illustrates that if the NWSL season is akin to a theatrical performance, a spectacular goal from Sanchez to Kerolin could be seen as a Chekhov’s Gun waiting to be realized.

We’ve witnessed Kerolin shine during the postseason in the past, and Sanchez has scored one of the most remarkable goals in NWSL playoff history — a moment that feels like it belongs in a science fiction story where the protagonist perceives five dimensions. However, what we have yet to see — and what the Courage will likely require to secure a trophy — is a cohesive effort between these two standout players.

6. Portland Thorns

Are they truly contenders?

To be honest, the Thorns have generally underperformed throughout the season, aside from a brief period of success from late April to mid-June. Since the end of the Olympic break, they have only clinched two league victories, showing weaknesses, particularly in defending during transitions. It’s noteworthy that the Thorns haven’t won on the road since May, and now they must replicate that success at least twice.

Given their wealth of talent, experience, and drive, there’s always potential for an upset. However, the team hasn’t jelled well in 2024, making it difficult for impartial observers to envision Portland making another deep playoff run.

What could go wrong?

The “good” version of the Thorns has emerged occasionally, with victories against Orlando and Angel City. However, they’ve also displayed the “bad” side just as frequently, particularly with disappointing losses against Racing Louisville and the San Diego Wave, most notably a 2-1 defeat at Providence Park against Utah.

A failure to apply adequate pressure or maintain a solid team structure has made it too easy for opponents to play through, around, and over the Thorns, raising doubts about their ability to mount effective defensive efforts in three consecutive matches.

X-factor: Can Smith and Coffey lead Portland?

Soccer matches can be notoriously unpredictable, and the scarcity of goals means that an individual moment of brilliance or misfortune can be decisive. Having world-class talents on the field gives Portland a glimmer of hope.

This is promising for Portland, as Sophia Smith and Sam Coffey are key USWNT starters occupying pivotal roles. Smith will need to perform with sheer creativity, while Coffey must deliver play reminiscent of Julie Ertz’s outstanding contributions in the 2019 World Cup, consistently covering any gaps that are currently unlikely to be closed. If both shine in the upcoming weeks, Portland could still be a contender.

7. Bay FC

Are they really contenders?

Bay FC has some statistics that prevent a straightforward dismissal of their chances. One notable point is their strong finishing to the season (after coach Albertin Montoya transitioned from a strict possession style to a more press-focused, transitional approach). In the last 13 matches of the season, they garnered 22 out of 34 points, and if they had maintained that average of 1.69 points per game, Racheal Kundananji and her teammates would have landed in fifth place. This squad, at present, is above the seventh place NWSL team in terms of capability.

However, this improvement might not suffice to challenge a true title contender. If Bay were to pull off a significant upset by winning at Audi Field, they would likely have to return to the East Coast faced with a formidable Gotham FC, followed potentially by tough matches against Orlando or Kansas City in the finals.

Bay has had an impressive season, but winning a championship seems out of reach in their inaugural year.

What could go wrong?

This has been a fantastic debut season marked by numerous positives. Yet, arriving as a strong team during a time when four of the best and most consistent clubs in NWSL history are present poses a challenge.

The expansion team faced difficulty against the top-tier teams, losing all eight of their matchups against the top four clubs. Except for a narrow 1-0 defeat to Orlando, the outcomes in those matches were just. The league’s leading teams effectively shut out Bay five times, allowing only four goals during those encounters. Just a month ago, Gotham overwhelmed Bay with a 5-1 scoreline, while Washington and Kansas City both outperformed them in their matches.

While facing the elite competition can be challenging, there have been seasons where teams similar to Bay have triumphed. However, this year is particularly competitive, as power is heavily concentrated among four teams, considerably reducing the likelihood of a “good” team making a deep postseason run.

X-factor: Can Katelyn Rowland excel?

Regardless of the tactical considerations for Bay, goalkeeping has proven to be an issue. Montoya made the appropriate decision to give Katelyn Rowland a chance after Lysianne’s performance felt inadequate.

Proulx has faced challenges early in the season, yet the experienced NWSL player has rightfully held onto her position.

Nonetheless, Rowland’s performances have not stood out when compared to her playoff rivals. Among the eight starting goalkeepers heading into the playoffs, Rowland holds the seventh position with a Goals Added of minus 0.72 and a post-shot expected goals plus/minus of +0.7, just ahead of Portland’s Shelby Hogan. It’s worth noting that Hogan has recently improved her performance, boasting a G+ of 0.11 that ranks fifth among the predicted starters since August 1, while Rowland has seen a decline with a score of minus 1.63.

Despite slightly better results, Bay has struggled to assert dominance in matches, which makes her performance a critical factor. As an expansion team, they require their goalkeeper to shine, and it appears that this expectation may be too much to ask right now.

8. Chicago Red Stars

Do they have what it takes to win it all?

This is a tall order. Chicago is in the process of rebuilding both on and off the field, and simply making it to the postseason is already a success for 2024. Lorne Donaldson has implemented a defense-focused, tough mindset, which has turned the Red Stars into a formidable counter-attacking team. Perhaps most significantly, they excel at playing defensively, alleviating the pressure of away games during the playoffs. Chicago managed to gather 20 points on the road but a mere 12 at home.

While it feels ambitious to discuss a championship run, the prospect of an upset is not entirely off the table. Chicago’s recent visit to Orlando ended in a 1-1 draw, and they also managed to secure a point in Kansas City. Historically, we’ve seen teams that seemed less likely to succeed make surprising runs in past NWSL playoffs.

Potential pitfalls?

The two draws against top-four teams are Chicago’s only instances of avoiding defeat in such matchups. They faced four losses by a margin of two goals and were limited to less than 1.0 expected goals on six occasions. Additionally, they suffered two losses against North Carolina, both ending in 3-1, and only recorded two wins throughout the entire season against the other seven playoff contenders.

Throughout the season, Chicago has served as a benchmark in the NWSL. Winning eight out of twelve matches against the league’s lower-tier teams demonstrates their ability to maintain a solid level of performance. However, playoff success demands a higher peak in performance, and it can be argued that every other team in the postseason has the potential to reach greater heights than the Red Stars.

X-factor: Naeher and Swanson give this team a unique advantage

It’s just a fact: the Chicago Red Stars have one of the premier match-winners in global soccer, Mallory Swanson, and a goalkeeper, Alyssa Naeher, who has a proven track record of excelling in high-pressure situations. Both players have been pivotal for the USWNT and possess the capability to drive their team to victory.

If both players deliver performances akin to their major tournament form on Friday night, Orlando’s impressive season could come under serious threat. The same could apply in the semifinals and finals. While that’s a tall order for both players, Chicago must also maintain strong defensive play to make the most of their extraordinary individual skills. It’s clear that Naeher and Swanson can fulfill their responsibilities effectively.