Oscar Nomination Predictions: Who’s Likely to Shine and Who Might Be Left Out This Year
This Oscar season brings an eclectic mix of characters, featuring a Jewish architect, a stripper from Brooklyn, a duo of witches from Oz, and an aspiring group of popes.
However, there isn’t a clear front-runner at this time.
While recent awards like the Golden Globes and nominations from the Screen Actors Guild have pointed towards possible frontrunners, with films like “Emilia Pérez” and “Conclave” gaining attention, the road to the Academy Awards on March 2 still feels uncertain. This unpredictability adds an element of excitement to the prediction game for Thursday’s nominations! (Not to forget the impact of the Los Angeles wildfires on this award season’s timing.)
Here’s a breakdown of the likely contenders and those that might miss the mark across the six major Oscar categories:
Best Picture
The Favorites: Although there isn’t an overwhelming favorite, many are speculating on the front-runners in this category. Films like “Anora” and “A Complete Unknown” are in contention alongside guild winners (actors, producers, writers, and directors). Traditionally, nominees from the Directors Guild of America have a good shot at the Oscars, which likely includes Golden Globe winners “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez,” alongside “Conclave.” The musical “Wicked” is also a strong candidate, backed by its SAG nomination for best cast, while films like “A Real Pain,” “The Substance,” and “Dune: Part Two” hold nominations from the Producers Guild and Globes.
The Others: What could fill the last available spot? Given that the Producers Guild Awards are a reliable indicator, “September 5” appears to be in a favorable position. Critically acclaimed films like “Nickel Boys,” nominated for a first-time director DGA award and a Globe, and “Sing Sing” can’t be overlooked even if they haven’t garnered as much praise in the awards season. Plus, “Challengers,” which has a Globe nod, shouldn’t be disregarded as a potential surprise entry.
Best Actor
The Favorites: Adrien Brody, starring in “The Brutalist,” has received an abundance of accolades this year, making him a likely candidate for a nomination (and potentially a win). Also strong contenders appear to be Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), and Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), all of whom received SAG and BAFTA nominations.
The Others: The last nomination is up for grabs, and there’s an interesting situation with Sebastian Stan. He won a Golden Globe for his acclaimed performance in “A Different Man,” yet he’s also nominated for a BAFTA as Donald Trump in “The Apprentice.” This could split his votes and jeopardize his chances. Without a SAG nomination, he might miss out, paving the way for Daniel Craig (“Queer”) to sneak in. Another name to consider is Hugh Grant, a BAFTA nominee who has yet to secure an Oscar nod despite his remarkable career, gaining praise for his role as a horror villain in “Heretic.”
Best Actress
The Favorites: Demi Moore’s notable comeback in “The Substance” stands out as a compelling narrative this awards season. She’s looking solid for a nomination alongside potential first-time nominees Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Karla SofÃa Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), the latter on the verge of making history as the first trans actress nominated in this category. Expect Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) to secure her third career Oscar nomination as well.
The Others: The fifth nomination spot is open for several talented actresses. Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), once considered likely nominees, now seem to be on the periphery. Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) has a Globe win but was snubbed by the SAG. Previous nominees Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), both with BAFTA nominations, are still in the running. Then there are Kate Winslet (“Lee”) and Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), familiar faces at the Oscars, alongside Globe nominee Zendaya (“Challengers”), who could also make a surprising entrance. The current favorite gaining momentum is Pamela Anderson, recently nominated for a SAG award, enjoying a groundswell of support for her performance in “The Last Showgirl.”
Best Supporting Actor
The Favorites: Kieran Culkin from “A Real Pain” has firmly established himself in this race, appearing poised not just for a nomination but also a win, impressing audiences with his spirited acceptance speeches. He is expected to be nominated alongside his former “Succession” co-star Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”), emerging talent Yura Borisov (“Anora”), and Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), all of whom boast nominations across the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA.
The Others: Jonathan Bailey has earned a surprising SAG nomination, yet it remains uncertain if “Wicked” will appeal to Oscar voters as much as it has to SAG members. He might still gain a nomination, but he faces strong competition, including Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) and Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”). The latter, who seems likely to grab the fifth spot, notably missed out on a SAG nomination. Clarence Maclin’s BAFTA nomination keeps him in contention, although early enthusiasm has faded as “Sing Sing” has struggled for Oscar recognition.
Best Supporting Actress
The Favorites: Following her Globe win, Zoe Saldaña appears to have a solid chance of securing her first Oscar nomination for her role in “Emilia Pérez,” in what seems to be a competitive race. Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) is also likely to secure a nomination, having nominations from SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes to her name.
The Others: This category is particularly competitive, with seven actresses vying for three nominations. Continued recognition for “Emilia Pérez” could support Selena Gomez, Saldaña’s co-star, who has also garnered BAFTA and Globe nods. However, Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) and Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) find themselves in a precarious position without SAG backing. This opens the door for dark horse Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”), although Jamie Lee Curtis, another SAG nominee, might clinch a nomination thanks to the recent “Last Showgirl” momentum and her recent win in this category. Globe nominee Margaret Qualley could gain attention from her notable moments in “The Substance,” while Danielle Deadwyler, nominated by SAG, remains an underdog despite “The Piano Lesson” being largely overlooked in the award discussions.
Best Director
The Favorites: Historically, it has been reliable to see four out of five DGA nominees in the Oscars, though last year marked an exception with only three making it. Assuming that trend corrects itself, expect to see BAFTA nominees Sean Baker (“Anora”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), Edward Berger (“Conclave”), and Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), who recently won a Globe.
The Others: James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”), the fifth DGA nominee, could find himself out of the running, while BAFTA and Globe nominee Coralie Fargeat, known for her unique body horror film “The Substance,” is a compelling contender to prevent an all-male nominee list. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) may also make the final cut due to his BAFTA nod, and other notable longer shots include Globe nominee Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light”), RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”), and Jon M. Chu (“Wicked”).
