Climate change is reshaping the landscape suitable for agriculture and timber production, leading to heightened competition for these essential resources, according to a recent study.
A new study suggests that climate change is altering the land available for growing food and timber, creating competition between these two critical resources.
In England, the rise of vineyards reflects changing agricultural conditions due to increasingly warmer summers. However, this positive development masks a troubling reality: climate change is shifting where crops can be grown across the globe.
Researchers from the University of Cambridge have identified a pressing issue: as arable land nudges further north, it will increasingly encroach upon areas designated for tree growth. The timber harvested from these trees is vital for many aspects of modern life, from packaging materials to construction.
The experts argue that the growing competition for land between timber and food production, spurred by climate change, has been largely overlooked but will emerge as a significant concern as the demand for both resources continues to rise.
The study presents a grim worst-case scenario for climate change, where failure to decarbonize results in more than 320 million hectares of forestry land—roughly equivalent to India—transitioning to more suitable agricultural land by the century’s end.
Currently, the majority of timber-producing forests are situated in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the US, Canada, China, and Russia. By 2100, around 90% of all existing forestry land that will become suitable for crops is expected to be located in these four countries.
Notably, vast expanses of timber land in Russia will become optimal for agriculture, surpassing the combined potential of the US, Canada, and China, making it more feasible to cultivate crops like potatoes, soy, and wheat.
“There’s only a limited amount of land on Earth that can be used for growing food and wood—both of which are crucial resources for society. As agriculture shifts northward due to climate change, it will increasingly challenge timber production,” said Dr. Oscar Morton, a researcher in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, who co-led the study.
“We must think long-term; if we hope to secure timber in the future, we need to start planting now. The trees we will harvest by the end of this century are already growing and take significantly longer to mature than food crops,” explained Dr. Chris Bousfield, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Plant Sciences and co-leader of the study.
With global food demand predicted to double by 2050 due to population growth and rising affluence, wood demand is also set to double in this period, largely given its reputation as a low-carbon alternative to concrete and steel in construction.
Relocating timber production deeper into boreal or tropical forests is not a viable solution, as these trees have remained untouched for millennia, and logging them would result in massive carbon emissions and threats to biodiversity.
“The increased competition for land between agriculture and forestry poses a significant environmental risk, potentially pushing wood production into the primary forests of the tropics and boreal regions. These harbors of biodiversity hold the Earth’s most diverse ecosystems, making their conservation vital,” cautioned David Edwards, a Professor of Plant Ecology at the University of Cambridge and senior author of the study.
To derive their findings, the researchers analyzed global satellite data on intensive forestry and combined it with future predictions of agricultural land suitability for key crops, such as rice, wheat, maize, soy, and potatoes, under different climate change scenarios.
Even under the most favorable scenario where net-zero targets are met, the researchers anticipate significant alterations in areas appropriate for food and timber production.
This study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Timber production adds over $1.5 trillion annually to the global economy. However, rising temperatures and wildfires have recently led to considerable timber losses worldwide. Climate change is also exacerbating the spread of pests, such as the Bark Beetle, that threaten tree health.
As climate change progresses, it will render tropical regions too hot for agricultural viability and cause significant reductions in productivity in southern Europe for both food and timber.
“The impact of climate change on timber production is already evident. Coupled with the increasing demands from agriculture, this creates a complex array of challenges,” remarked Bousfield.
“Ensuring a sustainable wood supply may not seem as urgent as securing food for survival, but wood plays an equally essential role in our lives, necessitating proactive strategies for future food and wood security,” emphasized Morton.
