Tropical Storm Rafael emerged in the Caribbean on Monday afternoon and is projected to undergo “rapid intensification,” according to the National Hurricane Center. It is likely to turn into a hurricane as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico, a rare occurrence for November. Wind shear, dry air, and cooler water temperatures are expected to weaken it as it nears the northern Gulf by the weekend.

Rafael marks the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, as reported by Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher from Colorado State University. Typically, an average season sees 14 storms.

Instances of named storms in November

Since 2013, eight named storms have formed in November. Of these, only four made landfall, with just two hitting the U.S. mainland.

Rarity of hurricane landfalls in the U.S. during November

According to NOAA’s records dating back to 1851, only four hurricanes out of 287 that made landfall in the contiguous U.S. occurred in November. Three of these made landfall in Florida, and one in North Carolina.

Common locations for storm formation in November

Most storms develop in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico and usually move north and northeast as they are carried away by an eastward-flowing trough. This pattern often brings storms near the Florida peninsula. A similar scenario occurs in October, but there are far fewer storms in November.

Storms typically become less frequent in November due to less favorable atmospheric conditions. Additionally, those that do develop face more challenges in making U.S. landfall, as cold fronts become more prevalent. These cold fronts can either divert storms away from the East Coast or keep them stuck in the Caribbean.

Current season storm count

This hurricane season has produced 17 named storms, ten of which have intensified into hurricanes, and three of those have become major hurricanes.

Current state of Rafael

Although the official end of hurricane season falls on Nov. 30, the activity may not be over yet. This season could be among the busiest ever recorded, according to NOAA’s forecast from August. While tropical activity usually decreases after mid-October, there may still be storms forming into December this year.