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HomeSportSEC Secures Fifth Spot in CFP Bracket as Unbeaten Big Ten Team...

SEC Secures Fifth Spot in CFP Bracket as Unbeaten Big Ten Team Drops Out

 

CFP Bracket Forecast: SEC Expands to Five Teams as Big Ten’s Undefeated Team Falls Out


 

LSU’s chances of making it to the College Football Playoff ended on Saturday night, but the playoff landscape remains unclear.

 

The situation has actually become more complicated after Miami lost its unbeaten status and Ole Miss pulled off an upset against Georgia.

For weeks, I limited the SEC to four playoff teams, but I’ve returned to my initial belief that the SEC could have five teams qualify.

As we approach the rankings update on Tuesday, here is my updated prediction for the CFP bracket. The top four seeds will receive a bye in the first round, while teams seeded 5 through 8 will host first-round playoff matches.

 

1. Oregon (Big Ten)

Dillon Gabriel kept himself in the Heisman Trophy race by throwing three touchdown passes in Oregon’s 39-18 victory over Maryland. My only concern about the Ducks is their lack of challenging road games against currently winning teams. How will Oregon perform outside the comfort of Autzen Stadium during the playoffs? Last week: No. 1 seed.

 

2. Alabama (SEC)

With a crowded SEC standings, complicated tiebreaker scenarios might come into play for the conference championship game. I can’t guarantee Alabama will make it to Atlanta. With two losses in the conference, the Crimson Tide will need some assistance. If they do qualify, I believe they can defend their SEC title successfully. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is back in form, and Alabama has bounced back from their struggles in October with a convincing win over LSU. Last week: Not in playoff.

 

3. Brigham Young (Big 12)

BYU spent much of its rivalry matchup against Utah justifying the CFP committee’s cautious ranking of the Cougars. However, BYU is continuing to fight hard. They pulled off a narrow 22-21 win with a late field goal, marking their fourth win by six points or fewer. The committee’s hesitance towards the Cougars means they have a clear goal: Win the Big 12 or risk not making the cut. Last week: No. 4 seed.

4. Miami (ACC)

Georgia Tech scored a surprise upset against the Hurricanes with a 28-23 win, demonstrating a solid strategy for defeating Miami: control the ball to keep their powerful offense benched. Georgia Tech’s pass rush effectively pressured Cam Ward, Miami’s standout quarterback. The Hurricanes now have to win the ACC to secure a playoff spot, yet Ward is skilled enough to pull through in tight games for Miami most of the time. Last week: No. 3 seed.

 

5. Ohio State (at-large)

If Ohio State continues to win – with an undefeated Indiana visiting soon – and finishes 11-1, they’ll have another chance against Oregon. If they defeat the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship, Ohio State could soar to the No. 1 seed. If they lose, the committee is unlikely to penalize them significantly, especially now that Georgia has suffered a second loss, increasing Ohio State’s chances to land the No. 5 spot. Last week: No. 5 seed.

6. Penn State (at-large)

Penn State might lack a statement victory, but they have a strong schedule and finishing 11-1 could help distinguish them from a cluster of two-loss SEC teams. The committee seems open to rewarding teams for a “good loss,” and Penn State’s narrow defeat to Ohio State doesn’t hurt them and may actually enhance their overall resume. Last week: No. 6 seed.

 

7. Notre Dame (at-large)

While other playoff hopefuls face tough conference games, the Irish benefit from their independent status. Army’s undefeated record also helps Notre Dame. If the Irish defeat the Black Knights, it could convince the committee to give them a home game in the first round. Last week: No. 8 seed.

 

8. Mississippi (at-large)

Ole Miss’ investment in new defensive players has paid off, as they dominated Georgia and reignited their playoff ambitions. With other SEC teams at risk of further losses, Ole Miss’s upcoming games against weaker opponents like Florida and Mississippi State could lead to blowout victories, which would impress the committee. Last week: Not in playoff.

9. Georgia (at-large)

While the committee may try to avoid rematches from the regular season, if the SEC successfully secures numerous bids, they could be forced to accept at least one rematch. Georgia plays Tennessee this Saturday and needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. From this seeding, it seems I expect Georgia to recover and protect their home field. Last week: No. 2 seed.

10. Texas (at-large)

Georgia’s recent loss has hurt Texas’ playoff positioning. If Georgia had continued to win, the Longhorns could have dismissed their defeat against them in Austin. Now that Georgia looks more vulnerable, Texas risks dropping in the seeding and could potentially fall out of contention altogether with another loss. Last week: No. 6 seed.

11. Tennessee (at-large)

If Tennessee loses to Georgia and Indiana also falls to Ohio State, the committee may have to choose between the two-loss Volunteers and one-loss Indiana for the last at-large spot. If that situation arises, would the committee really disregard Tennessee’s notably stronger schedule compared to Indiana’s, especially considering Tennessee’s win against Alabama? Historically, the selection committee has a strong preference for the SEC. Last week: No. 10 seed.

 

12. Boise State (Group of Five)

You might have expected Ashton Jeanty to slow down, but not at all! Boise State’s reliable running back racked up 209 yards and three touchdowns in their victory over Nevada. While Army is also in the running for the Group of Five’s bid, Boise will secure the spot as long as it keeps winning. Last week: No. 12 seed.

 

Reasons why Indiana is not in my latest projection

Ole Miss’s victory over Georgia has added more teams into contention for at-large spots. Indiana appears to qualify as a playoff contender, but its less competitive schedule makes it vulnerable.

 

Tennessee may not have many major wins, but their triumph over Alabama gives them an edge that Indiana cannot match unless they upset Ohio State in Columbus.

I initially thought Indiana would still be in contention even with a loss to Ohio State. However, if the committee has to choose between a two-loss SEC team with a win over Alabama and a one-loss Big Ten team with a win over a .500 Michigan, I believe the SEC team will secure the spot.