Despite common worries that global crop yields have remained static in recent years, a thorough investigation into global food production reveals that yields have consistently increased at a similar pace since the 1960s. This report, authored by John Baffes from the World Bank and Xiaoli Etienne from the University of Idaho, U.S., was published on November 27, 2024, in the open-access journal PLOS ONE.
With almost 10 billion people projected to live on Earth by 2050, enhancing agricultural production will be vital in meeting the food needs of this expanding population. Over the past sixty years, much of the growth in food production has been driven by technological advancements, including the development and adoption of improved crop varieties. However, some research has indicated that production growth may have plateaued, raising concerns about future food supplies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries experiencing rapid population increases.
In their latest research, the team established standardized measures for production and yield across 144 types of crops, which represent 98 percent of the world’s agricultural land. These metrics enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate agricultural productivity across various countries and regions. The study indicated that there hasn’t been a significant slowdown in global crop yield growth over the last sixty years—any declines seen in particular crops, regions, or nations have been balanced out by increases elsewhere. Their results demonstrate that crop yields have risen annually by approximately 33 kg of wheat per hectare.
While the study’s results provide reassurance regarding global food supply, the researchers warn that ensuring sustainable food production and maintaining food affordability will continue to pose challenges for global food security. They stress that these issues are especially important given the intensifying effects of climate change and the rising demand for food driven by population and income growth.
The authors state: “By employing a comprehensive caloric-based index of production and yield for 144 crops, covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output, this paper shows that, in total, global yield growth—a crucial measure of agricultural productivity—has not diminished in the past sixty years. This consistent growth represents an annual increase of about 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare, underscoring ongoing productivity progress worldwide.”
