As Week 11 concludes, there are only three more weekends of college football left to determine the conference champions and playoff contenders in the upcoming 12-team postseason. With fewer chances remaining, the recent results carry more weight. Some perceptions may hold true, but there’s always a chance for overreaction, even at this late point in the season.

We’re revisiting various regions across the nation to provide some context to the latest developments. Here are five significant overreactions following a hectic round of games.

Texas is back — as the SEC favorite

The Longhorns have regained their position as the top-ranked SEC team in the US LBM Coaches Poll, and they seem to have proven themselves as the strongest contender in a competitive conference after their victory over Florida. Currently, the standings reflect that Texas is one of only three teams with just one conference loss, joining Tennessee and Texas A&M. This suggests that if Texas can overcome Texas A&M later this month, they will compete for the conference title, right?

Well, sort of, but there are still tasks the Longhorns need to focus on first. Their upcoming adversaries, Arkansas (away) and Kentucky (home), are capable of causing upsets despite being lower in the rankings. In an ideal world, Texas dispatches these two teams, and Tennessee wins its remaining games to set up a showdown between the Longhorns and Aggies in Atlanta. But let’s be real, who truly believes it will be that straightforward?

Miami is back — to mediocrity

In reality, neither the perception of Miami nor its actual position in the ACC standings has shifted significantly after their loss to Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes had previously scraped by in several close matches and were not viewed as an overwhelmingly dominant team among the undefeated contenders to start with. In terms of conference standings, Miami still holds the tiebreaker against Clemson due to their win over Louisville, meaning they can still reach the title game by winning against Wake Forest and Syracuse.

However, what has shifted is Miami’s status in terms of playoff potential. If they suffer another loss, even in the conference finale, their playoff chances would look shaky, highlighted by a non-conference victory over Florida that lacks significant weight. The silver lining for Miami is they have a week off to regroup before facing a series of manageable games, but they need to secure their spot without leaving room for error.

Colorado is set to take the Big 12

It’s worth noting that currently, no team in the Big 12 is performing better than the Buffaloes. Colorado stands alone in second place, eliminating the need for assistance to reach the championship game.

They do, however, have three significant challenges ahead, with the next two likely being the hardest. Next week, they host Utah, a team that has faced letdowns this season but still boasts a strong lineup. The Utes will also come into this game motivated after a disappointing outcome in their recent encounter with league leaders Brigham Young. Following that, Colorado travels to Kansas, which, although struggling with a losing record, remains a threat – just ask Iowa State. If the Buffaloes can overcome those two challenges and an Oklahoma State team that appears to have lost focus this season, they could find themselves in a championship match against BYU.

The unfortunate reality for Colorado and the rest of the Big 12 is that it’s likely a one-bid league, unless BYU can achieve a perfect 12-0 record and lose in the title game. Nevertheless, enthusiasm in Boulder is at an all-time high, and their on-field performance is finally aligning with that excitement.

There will be little suspense in the Big Ten

While the situation in the SEC is still uncertain, the Big Ten landscape appears to be mostly resolved. Oregon is set to clash with the winner of the matchup between Ohio State and Indiana for the conference title, and those three teams, along with Penn State, are likely to make the playoff field.

Honestly, this might not even qualify as an overreaction. The only remaining potential spoilers are Wisconsin, who will host Oregon next week, and Minnesota, who will match up against Penn State at home on November 23. Yes, Ohio State does have to contend with Michigan, but envisioning an upset there seems like a stretch.

The Army/Boise State dilemma

Before diving into the complex scenario we’re about to outline, let’s recap the details. The 12-team playoff format includes the five highest-ranked conference champions along with seven at-large selections, with the top four automatic qualifiers receiving guaranteed first-round byes.

Since this system was introduced, many analysts have assumed that the first-round byes would go to the champions of the four major conferences, while the fifth spot would be claimed by the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five leagues.

The Army Black Knights have a slim chance at the playoffs if they manage to win their remaining games within their conferences. However, could the situations shift to where both teams qualify instead of just one? With the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and Big 12 potentially being limited to only one playoff spot, it’s possible both the Mountain West and American Athletic Conference champions could outperform the winner of one of those conferences.

Let’s focus on Army, which absolutely must defeat Notre Dame in two weeks for this scenario to stand a chance. If the Black Knights succeed and then finish their American Athletic Conference schedule with a victory against Texas-San Antonio, followed by a win against the victor of next week’s Navy-Tulane clash for the conference title, that achievement would be hard to overlook. Meanwhile, the Broncos wouldn’t have a signature win to match and would be relying on a close loss to Oregon, hoping the Ducks maintain their status as the top seed.

In essence, both teams must win all their remaining games, and they may require significant changes in one of the other major conferences for this to unfold. Still, it’s certainly a scenario worth considering as the next few weeks progress.