This week, winter weather may disrupt travel plans as many people travel for Thanksgiving.

In the western United States, a significant atmospheric river is forecasted to arrive with a low-pressure system on Tuesday, bringing “anomalous moisture” across southern and central California, the Great Basin, and the Central Rockies, as stated by the National Weather Service.

The NWS indicated that “heavy rain along the coast and in the mountains may cause flash flooding, especially in the southern Sierra Nevada foothills below 8,000 feet, where excessive rainfall could lead to landslides or mudslides.”

In higher mountain regions of the Sierra Nevada and much of the Intermountain West and Central Rockies, snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet are possible on Tuesday.

“We’re monitoring a storm moving into Northern California on Tuesday, which may bring rain and snow to the East in a couple of days,” said Bernie Rayno, Chief On-Air Meteorologist at AccuWeather, in a Tuesday forecast.

Rayno added, “There are various factors we are still examining regarding this storm, with track and intensity being critical in determining where the rain and snow line will settle and how much snow will fall in the Midwest and Northeast.”

AccuWeather reports that as the storm moves east, it will absorb more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, gaining strength from Wednesday night to Thursday night.

“The degree to which the storm strengthens in the East will influence how far north it travels, the rain-snow boundary, and whether snow accumulates or makes travel difficult,” Rayno explained.

Snow showers are also likely in the Great Lakes this week, with parts of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and areas downwind of Lake Ontario expected to receive 4 to 8 inches of snow by Thursday morning, according to the NWS forecast.

Arctic chill to impact much of the US post-Thanksgiving

Extremely cold air directly from the Arctic is expected to spread across almost the entire eastern half of the country this weekend and into early next week, according to forecasters on Monday, and this cold snap may linger.

This marks the first major Arctic outbreak of the season, set to hit the northern Rockies and northern Plains on Thanksgiving and Friday, the National Weather Service reported. The cold air will then push further south and east throughout the Plains and Midwest this weekend.

How cold will it get? By Saturday morning, about 196 million people could wake up to temperatures below freezing, according to Weather.com.

Many areas’ temperatures this weekend will resemble those typical of mid-January, as noted by the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey, in a post on X.

Record travel expected

Any travel disruptions could come at an exceptionally busy period for flights.

The Transportation Security Administration reported last week that it anticipates this to be the busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record, expecting to screen 18.3 million passengers between Tuesday and December 2. This would indicate a 6% rise from 2023.

In 2024, passenger numbers have reached unprecedented levels, showing a 17% increase since 2022, as per a TSA statement. TSA Administrator David Pekoske noted that all ten of the busiest travel days in TSA history have occurred in 2024 and that this trend is likely to persist.

Low gas prices likely to drive record travel

AAA predicts that 79.9 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home for Thanksgiving from Tuesday to December 2, marking an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year and a rise of 2 million compared to 2019.

“Thanksgiving is the peak travel holiday, and this year, we anticipate breaking records across the board for driving, flying, and cruising,” stated Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel.

Lower gas prices are expected to contribute to this record-breaking travel period, with national averages potentially falling below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021.