President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans for a significant conversation regarding childhood vaccines with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., his nominee to lead health agencies in the U.S.

In a recent interview with Time magazine, where he discussed the “Person of the Year,” Trump speculated whether vaccines given to children might be linked to rising autism rates—a notion debunked by extensive research.

“We’re going to have a big discussion,” Trump stated. “The autism rate is at a level that nobody ever believed could exist. If you observe the current situation, there has to be a cause.”

Having overseen the development of the COVID-19 vaccine during his previous term, Trump expressed his desire to “see the numbers.” He added that after reviewing the research, “we’ll determine what’s beneficial and what’s harmful.”

‘Which diseases should we bring back?’

Kennedy, a lawyer, clarified that he does not oppose all vaccines. He has stated that he himself is vaccinated and has vaccinated his children, while advocating for parental “choice” regarding vaccinations.

However, he has propagated conspiracy theories regarding several vaccines in public forums and court cases, particularly against those for measles and COVID-19. If appointed as Health and Human Services Secretary, Kennedy would oversee the CDC, which manages the country’s vaccination program for children.

On Monday, a group of 77 Nobel laureates warned that Kennedy would “endanger public health.”

Health experts have also raised concerns regarding his nomination.

Dr. Paul Offit, who directs the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, criticized Kennedy’s anti-vaccine views as “harmful.” He questioned, “What diseases does he wish would return?”

Taking measles as an example, if vaccination rates fall below 95% in the community, outbreaks can occur, threatening those who cannot be vaccinated due to age or health issues. Prior to the introduction of vaccines in the U.S. in 1963, nearly every child contracted measles before turning 15, and it resulted in about 48,000 hospitalizations and 500 deaths annually, according to the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Disproven Association between Vaccines and Autism

The false belief that vaccines are linked to autism originated from a discredited 1998 study by Andrew Wakefield, a former British doctor who lost his medical license. This controversial paper was published in the journal The Lancet.

Trump had met with Wakefield prior to his 2016 election victory and even invited him to his inaugural celebrations in 2017.

Wakefield’s study was based on a very small sample of 12 children in the UK with developmental challenges, claiming that eight of those who received the MMR vaccine exhibited autism-like symptoms within two weeks post-vaccination.

However, this study was widely criticized for its serious flaws, and nearly all co-authors later retracted their names from it.

Numerous studies from 1999 to 2019, involving hundreds of thousands of children, have found no link between vaccinations and autism development, regardless of their MMR vaccination status.

While any medical treatment carries the risk of side effects, vaccines are subject to rigorous safety testing since they are given to healthy individuals.

“No medical treatment undergoes as much scrutiny as vaccines,” stated Dr. Matthew Boulton, a professor of epidemiology and internal medicine at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

Individuals experiencing adverse reactions to vaccines are encouraged to report these incidents to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, a federal program part of the Department of Health and Human Services.

This system was utilized, for example, to trace blood clots associated with the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine.

The initial vaccine utilized during the pandemic, as reported by the Yale School of Public Health, resulted in six instances of blood clotting out of a total of 6.8 million administered doses before it was removed from the U.S. market.

Concerns Regarding Increasing Autism Rates

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological and developmental condition that influences how individuals communicate, interact, learn, and behave. Symptoms typically emerge early in life. Since ASD is a spectrum, some individuals exhibit only mild symptoms, while others may be nonverbal, which can be distressing for families.

There has been a notable rise in autism cases over the past few decades. According to the CDC, around 1 in 36 children born in 2012 are estimated to have an autism spectrum disorder, a significant increase from 1 in 150 in 1992.

The reasons behind this sharp rise remain unclear, leading to various theories, one of which suggests a possible relationship with childhood vaccinations. However, no conclusive evidence has ever established this link.

Several research-backed factors contributing to the increase in autism include improved diagnosis of less severe disorders. Approximately 100 genes have been linked to autism, and research indicates that if one identical twin has autism, the other twin has an 80% chance of also being affected, highlighting a strong genetic component. Additionally, maternal infections during pregnancy are thought to elevate the risk of autism in offspring.

Environmental factors have also been associated with autism, although the specific elements of the environment that may contribute remain unknown. For example, a study indicated that exposure to air pollution during pregnancy could increase the risk of autism, occurring prior to the child’s vaccination.

Potential Threat to the Vaccines for Children Program

While Trump and Kennedy have not specifically indicated a desire to dismantle the federal Vaccines for Children Program, health experts express concern that the new administration may aim to undermine it.

This program ensures that over half of U.S. children receive vaccinations, regardless of their family’s financial situation or insurance coverage. Private insurance companies often base their vaccine coverage plans on the vaccines included in this program.

The program was established by Congress following a measles outbreak from 1989 to 1991 that resulted in over 160 preschooler fatalities and 11,000 hospitalizations.

Dr. Walter Orenstein, a professor emeritus at Emory School of Medicine who led the U.S. Immunization Program during its inception, cited cost as a major factor preventing children from receiving the measles vaccine.

A recent study by the CDC estimated that the program has saved 1.13 million lives and $2.9 trillion by preventing illness, school absenteeism, and work absenteeism, as well as long-term health issues like deafness or blindness.

According to Jason Schwartz, an associate professor of health policy at Yale School of Public Health, eliminating the Vaccines for Children program, which is a congressional entitlement program, would likely necessitate legislative action. However, Schwartz noted that Trump and Kennedy could still diminish the program’s effectiveness without formally terminating it.

The new administration could potentially adjust or lessen the CDC’s vaccination schedule for children, which would impact both those with private insurance and families on Medicaid or without insurance.

Boulton from Michigan stated, “Essentially, we would create a scenario where access to vaccines would depend on one’s ability to pay. If you can afford them, you get them; if not, you don’t.”

Concerns Regarding Other Vaccines

Kennedy has also criticized additional vaccines beyond the MMR, including the COVID-19 vaccine. A lawyer allied with Kennedy requested the FDA to rescind the approval of the polio vaccine in 2022. Should Kennedy become HHS Secretary, he would have oversight of the FDA.

During an interview on “Meet the Press,” Trump expressed his support for the polio vaccine, which was first licensed in the U.S. in April 1955, shortly before his ninth birthday.

“The polio vaccine is a tremendous achievement,” he remarked.