Tropical Storm Rafael is gaining strength on Tuesday as it moves through the warm waters of the Caribbean, heading towards the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, while officials are keeping a close eye on its potential effects on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Predictions indicate that Rafael will pass near Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon and is likely to strengthen into a hurricane close to the Cayman Islands, gathering more power just before it is expected to make landfall in Cuba on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center noted that “the storm is in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that supports its strengthening.”

As the long-range forecast remains uncertain, the National Hurricane Center stated that it is too early to predict any impacts Rafael might have on the northern Gulf Coast.

Forecasts suggest the storm could hit land anywhere from the Texas coastline to the Florida Panhandle over the weekend, with AccuWeather mentioning that the highest likelihood of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast. Other possible scenarios include a shift to the west, taking the storm over western Mexico.

In positive news, drier air and stronger vertical wind shear are expected to lessen the hurricane’s strength as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. AccuWeather’s forecast indicates, “This will not result in a powerful hurricane making landfall in the U.S., but something less intense in terms of wind strength.”

However, the storm is likely to bring heavy rainfall, mudslides, strong winds, and hazardous surf and rip current conditions to western Cuba, which is still recovering from Hurricane Oscar and the failure of its electrical grid.

The Cayman Islands and most of Cuba are under hurricane warnings as of Tuesday morning, as stated by the hurricane center, which advised that “Preparations to safeguard life and property should be accomplished promptly.” Tropical storm warnings and watches are also in effect for parts of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Florida Keys.

Where is Tropical Storm Rafael located?

As of the latest update from the hurricane center at 10 a.m., Tropical Storm Rafael was approximately 60 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and around 200 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman island. The storm is exhibiting winds of 60 mph and is moving northwest through the Caribbean at a speed of 13 mph.

Rafael is expected to pass close to Jamaica on Tuesday, potentially resulting in heavy rainfall that might cause mudslides in the elevated regions. There is also a chance of minor coastal flooding.

As the storm continues moving north over the warm Caribbean waters, it is predicted to strengthen and reach near hurricane status when it nears or crosses the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, producing hurricane-force winds, storm surges, and damaging waves, according to the hurricane center.

On Wednesday, it is forecast to further intensify before landfall in western Cuba, where it could cause a rise in water levels of 6 to 9 feet above normal levels. Cuba, along with certain areas of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, may receive between 3 to 6 inches of rain, with some areas potentially receiving up to 10 inches.

Later on Wednesday, Rafael will move past the Florida Keys, expected to bring 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. The hurricane center has also noted, “There might be a few tornadoes on Wednesday across the Keys and the southwestern part of the Florida mainland.”

Rafael marks the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, as assessed by Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. The typical year averages 14 named storms.

What impact can Rafael have on Florida?

The storm is expected to make its closest approach to Florida late Wednesday into Thursday, which will increase the chances of rain across the state as bands of precipitation and strong winds affect the Florida Keys.

Florida meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut, associated with the YSL News Network, states that Rafael is projected to stay well southwest of the Keys. Tropical storm conditions are anticipated in the lower and middle Keys on Wednesday, per the National Hurricane Center.

Heavy rain is likely to spread north into Florida and neighboring areas.“`html

The hurricane center has indicated that the Southeast U.S. might experience impacts from a storm during the middle to latter half of the week. There could also be a few tornadoes on Wednesday in the Keys and on the southwestern coast of Florida.

“Fortunately, while Rafael could enter the Gulf as a hurricane by mid-week, there’s a slim chance of it making landfall as a hurricane,” noted Truchelut.

– Cheryl McCloud, YSL News Network-Florida