The offseason strategies have significantly benefited No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon, who will face each other this Saturday in a Big Ten matchup featuring two top teams with dynamic offenses in the Bowl Subdivision.

Both teams ended last season in search of a new quarterback. Kyle McCord, now at Syracuse, departed Ohio State last December after receiving lukewarm support from coach Ryan Day following a loss to Michigan. After setting records over two seasons, former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix was picked in the first round of the NFL draft this year.

Rather than promoting from within, both programs opted to seek new talent through the transfer portal. Ohio State tapped Kansas State’s Will Howard, while Oregon brought in Dillon Gabriel, who had previously played at Central Florida and Oklahoma. Both players have integrated smoothly into their new teams, leading the Buckeyes and Ducks toward potential College Football Playoff berths.

“When you come to a school like Ohio State, you want to shine on a big stage. That’s what you signed up for,” Howard remarked. “This is the essence of college football and a childhood dream.”

Each winter, a similar scenario unfolds across the FBS landscape. The introduction of the transfer portal and the heated competition for name, image, and likeness (NIL) earnings have transformed the dynamics of quarterback recruitment, making it a high-stakes game that can significantly impact a team’s chances of making the College Football Playoff.

Since the start of the 2021 season, following the implementation of NIL and the transfer portal in college sports, 77 quarterbacks have transferred to Power Four programs and taken on starting roles for at least one season.

This trend has escalated yearly, reaching a record number in 2024. Currently, there are 41 transfer quarterbacks starting in Power Four programs, affecting almost every team in the Big Ten. In contrast, only nine transfer quarterbacks were starting in the Power Four back in 2021.

“On my first day, we had 10 offensive starters in the transfer portal, including the quarterback from last year,” said Indiana’s first-year coach Curt Cignetti. “It’s a completely different environment now.”

Assessing the success of transfer quarterbacks

To evaluate the effectiveness of these quarterbacks, YSL News Sports analyzed Power Four transfers within the context of the portal and NIL era, focusing on two key areas. The first category considers individual achievements like touchdowns, turnovers, passing yards, performance against ranked teams, and end-of-season honors. The second category focuses on team accomplishments, primarily assessed through win-loss records, postseason success, and overall improvements or declines in quarterback play.

The outcomes for 15 transfer quarterbacks starting in the Power Four this season are still pending. According to our analysis, 34 of the remaining 62 transfers—about 55%—are categorized as successful, while 28 did not meet expectations.

The successful transfers include the last two Heisman Trophy winners, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, as well as current favorites like Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, and Quinn Ewers.

An examination of these quarterbacks revealed three critical questions that can help coaches and programs effectively recruit at this pivotal position and avoid potential mistakes:

1. Does the quarterback have prior starting experience, and is it from a Power Four conference or from Group of Five and Championship Subdivision?

2. Is the quarterback an upperclassman transferring as a graduate student, or does he retain multiple years of eligibility?

3. Do any coaching staff members have previous connections with the player, either through high school recruitment, past games against the quarterback, or prior coaching experiences together?

The significance of starting experience

The presence of previous starting experience is often the most significant indicator of a transfer quarterback’s potential success.

Seventeen transfers during this period entered the portal with less than a full season of starting experience. Among this group, 10 did not fulfill expectations, including former Colorado QB J.T. Shrout, former Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister, and current Purdue QB Hudson Card.

Conversely, the seven who defied the odds have become some of the most successful quarterbacks in recent FBS history. This group includes Dart and Ewers—who had only three starts as a true freshman at USC in 2021—as well as former Kentucky QB Will Levis and current Utah QB Cam Rising.

Overall, 27 out of 34 transfers that met our criteria for success had at least one full season of starting experience prior to their transfer.

“There were many exceptional players in the portal last year for quarterback, but we believed he was the best option,” said Syracuse quarterbacks coach Nunzio Campanile about McCord.

We believed that bringing him here, along with his experience, skills, and talent, could significantly benefit the team.”

This trend suggests that having starting experience often correlates with success in a new program, yet there are cases that demonstrate the unpredictability attached to acquiring a transfer quarterback.

A prominent example of this inconsistency is DJ Uiagalelei, a former Clemson quarterback. After making notable improvements last season at Oregon State, he represented one of the challenges Florida State faced before sustaining a possibly season-ending hand injury during a loss to SMU last month.

The significance of starting experience is further highlighted by comparing the success rates of players from the Group of Five or lower-tier competitions with those from the Power Four conferences.

Among the 12 Group of Five or FCS transfers in this timeframe, nine were successful, featuring current starters like Shedeur Sanders at Colorado, Diego Pavia at Vanderbilt, and Kurtis Rourke at Indiana. Out of these, only two lacked full-season starting experience prior to entering the transfer portal: Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos and former Central Florida quarterback John Rhys Plumlee.

“He plays like an NFL veteran,” Cignetti remarked about Rourke. “He remains composed under pressure; he’s as cool as can be.”

“Having been around the game all my life, I can tell you there are players who can excel but aren’t necessarily found in the (Power Four) right now.”

The Risks of Short-Term Rentals

Evaluating quarterbacks over this period reveals the challenges involved with one-year transfers. This group of transfers had become the norm until the NCAA allowed all players to switch schools without sacrificing a season of eligibility.

Since 2021, 26 transfers fall into this category, with only 11—around 43%—meeting expectations for success. Among those, six quarterbacks switched this off-season: Howard, Gabriel, Ward, McCord, Pavia, and Rourke. The 15 who didn’t perform well during their senior years account for more than half of the 28 total transfers that did not meet expectations.

On the other hand, 23 out of 34 successful quarterbacks transferred with at least two years of eligibility remaining. Eleven were redshirt freshmen or sophomores at the time of transfer.

As it becomes harder for coaches to develop high school recruits into starters—especially with numerous Power Four quarterbacks entering the transfer portal after losing out in offseason competitions—programs that can secure an underclassman transfer have more time for player development.

In total, 18 of the 25 transfers who started multiple years with their new teams were considered to have been successful acquisitions.

The Advantage of Pre-existing Relationships

Though it’s challenging to quantify, there’s significant anecdotal evidence that coaches enhance their chances for success by recruiting transfers they have some familiarity with—often from their high school days, or sometimes from having coached the player previously.

“We aim to find players who meet our talent threshold,” stated Kentucky coach Mark Stoops. “However, we also seek intangible qualities that integrate well with our team culture, hoping that these players can step into their roles, earn the team’s trust, and emerge as leaders.”

For nine consecutive seasons, Kentucky has had a transfer quarterback as its primary starter, including Brock Vandagriff from Georgia this year. The Wildcats have experienced various levels of success during this time, with Terry Wilson and Will Levis leading their teams to 10-win seasons, while Devin Leary from North Carolina State had a lackluster campaign in 2023.

In such scenarios, programs can feel more secure about the new quarterback’s capability to manage the pressure of starting or the fact that the quarterback might already be familiar with the offensive system, thus eliminating the need for an immediate adjustment period.

Caleb Williams followed Southern California coach Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma, while Gabriel’s offensive coordinator at Oklahoma, Jeff Lebby, had also been his coordinator during his freshman year at Central Florida. Ewers initially committed to Texas before joining Ohio State and later transferred back to the Longhorns after his freshman season.

Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea not only brought in Pavia from New Mexico State this past season but also several former assistants from there, including offensive coordinator Tim Beck. Jerry Kill, the former New Mexico State head coach, was brought on as chief consultant and senior offensive advisor.

Numerous Syracuse coaches had previously recruited McCord, the Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year during his senior year at St. Joseph’s Preparatory School in Philadelphia. McCord’s extensive starting experience in high-pressure situations at Ohio State made him one of the most sought-after transfers last year.

While no assistant had worked with McCord during his time at Ohio State, these established relationships simplified the decision to target him as a key transfer for Syracuse. Knowing what they were getting helped them eliminate much of the uncertainty.

“We understood his character and work ethic would align perfectly with our program,” Campanile explained. “Additionally, we had observed his growth throughout high school and were able to track his performance at Ohio State. We were confident he would excel, but more importantly, we knew he was a great person who we wanted on our team.”