Atrial fibrillation (A-Fib), characterized by a fast and irregular heartbeat that can result in stroke or even sudden death, appears to be three times as prevalent as previously believed. New estimates indicate that it affects nearly 5% of the general population, approximating 10.5 million adults in the United States, according to a recent study from UC San Francisco.
Atrial fibrillation (A-Fib), which is a condition marked by a rapid and irregular heartbeat that may lead to stroke or sudden death, is now considered to be three times more prevalent than earlier estimates suggested, impacting close to 5% of the population, or about 10.5 million U.S. adults, as outlined by recent findings from UC San Francisco.
A-Fib has been increasingly diagnosed over the last decade, largely due to an aging population along with rising incidences of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. Previous estimates suggested that 3.3 million U.S. adults were living with A-Fib, a figure that hasn’t been revised in more than 20 years.
This study was published on September 11 in JACC.
“Atrial fibrillation doubles the risk of death and is among the leading causes of stroke. It can also lead to heart failure, myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease, and dementia, all of which decrease quality of life,” explained Jean Jacques Noubiap, MD, PhD, the study’s first author and a postdoctoral scholar at UCSF focusing on global cardiovascular health.
“The good news is that atrial fibrillation is preventable; with early detection and proper treatment, the negative consequences can be significantly minimized,” he added.
Increasing Incidence Highlights the Urgency for Improved Prevention and Treatment
Researchers at UCSF analyzed medical records of nearly 30 million adult patients who received some form of acute or procedural care in California from 2005 to 2019. Of these, around 2 million had been diagnosed with A-Fib, and the prevalence increased from 4.49% in the period from 2005 to 2009 to 6.82% in the years 2015 to 2019.
The findings were adjusted to represent the national landscape, estimating that approximately 10.55 million people currently have A-Fib. The data also indicated that during the study period, A-Fib patients were generally younger, less likely to be female, and had a higher incidence of hypertension and diabetes.
A-Fib can lead to various complications, including shortness of breath, dizziness, blood clots, strokes, and heart failure. Research has indicated that individuals with A-Fib may be up to five times at higher risk for a stroke. The authors believe that these updated estimates could assist in healthcare planning, resource distribution, and public health strategies.
“Doctors realize that atrial fibrillation is often found in nearly every area of medical practice,” noted Gregory M. Marcus, MD, MAS, the senior and corresponding author of the study, who is a cardiologist and electrophysiologist at UCSF Health. “These findings provide concrete evidence that previous projections significantly underestimated the true prevalence of this condition.”
New digital technologies might reveal an even greater prevalence than currently reported.
“With the increasing use of consumer wearables designed to detect atrial fibrillation and the advancement of safer and more effective treatment methods, the current numbers might soon be eclipsed by future healthcare demands related to the disease,” said Marcus.
Authors: Other contributors to the study include Janet J. Tang, PhD, MPH; Justin T. Teraoka; and Thomas A. Dewland, MD, all affiliated with UCSF’s Division of Cardiology.
Funding: The study received support from the NIH/NHLBI (R01HL158825-01).
