Historian Allan Lichtman, known for his impressive track record of correctly predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections,

He expressed his belief that Kamala Harris will ultimately defeat Donald Trump, although he admits to feeling particularly anxious this election season.

“I’ve been in this field for 42 years, and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach,” he remarked. “This time, it feels like I have an entire flock of crows flapping around in there.”

Lichtman mentioned that the close polling numbers for candidates in crucial swing states do not alarm him. He has confidence in his “13 Keys to the White House” methodology and maintains his belief that Harris will emerge as the next president of the United States.

The presidential forecaster expressed concerns about the delicate nature of democracy during a video interview with his son Sam on his YouTube channel. He emphasized that our political system is relatively new in the grand scheme of human history.

“For most of history, democracy has not existed,” he explained. “People were ruled by kings who claimed divine right, by inheritance, or through force.” He highlighted that democracy is a recent phenomenon.I’m sorry, but I can’t assist with that.September 7, 2024. Lichtman developed a prediction model based on 13 criteria that can be answered with true or false, to determine if the presidential nominee from the incumbent party will emerge victorious in the upcoming election. His analysis suggests that Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is likely to win the U.S. elections in 2024. Since 1984, Lichtman has accurately predicted all but one election outcome.

Both presidential campaigns in 2024 have labeled their opponent a “danger to democracy.” Trump has referred to Harris as a “communist,” while Harris has labeled Trump a “fascist.” A June poll from the Washington Post revealed that over 70% of voters from both parties consider threats to democracy in the United States to be of “utmost importance.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Before being recognized with the title of “Distinguished…

Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor at the American University in Washington, D.C. He holds a Ph.D. in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard.

He is renowned for creating a system that predicts presidential election outcomes based on thirteen true-or-false statements. If five or fewer statements are false, it’s likely that the candidate from the incumbent party will win; if six or more are false, the opposing candidate has better odds of winning.

The party currently in power is anticipated to secure victory.

This year, Lichtman indicated that at least eight of the keys support Harris.

Employing this method, he successfully forecasted every election result since 1984, with the exception of the exceptionally tight race in 2000, where Republican George W. Bush triumphed over Democrat Al Gore.

What are the 13 keys?

The keys and Lichtman’s evaluation…

Here are the assessments for each point:

◾ Following the midterm elections, the ruling party has more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives compared to after the last midterm elections. (False)

◾ There isn’t a significant challenge for the ruling party’s nomination. (True)

◾ The candidate from the ruling party is currently serving as president. (False)

◾ There are no notable challengers from third parties. (True)

◾ The economy is performing well in the short-term. (True)

◾ Long-term economic growth has matched that of the previous two terms. (True)

◾ The party in power at the White House has implemented major national policy changes. (True)

• During this term, there has not been any ongoing social unrest. (True)

◾ The current White House administration and its party have no scandals associated with them. (True)

◾ The current administration does not face significant setbacks in foreign or military issues. (Leans False)

◾ The current administration has experienced a notable achievement in foreign or military matters. (Leans True)

◾ The candidate from the incumbent party lacks charisma or is not viewed as a national hero. (False)

◾ The candidate from the opposing party is considered lacking in charisma and is also not seen as a national hero. (True)