Penn State showcased a strong defense during their 38-10 victory over SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

The offense took a backseat, as the Nittany Lions scored twice through interception returns and capitalized on another turnover to add a touchdown just before halftime. With a commanding 28-0 lead at the break, Penn State advanced to face Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinals.

This stout defense is a major reason why the Nittany Lions are predicted to advance to the national semifinals, aiming for their first national championship since 1986.

Nevertheless, the offense will need to rise to the occasion eventually. Although the ground game performed well against SMU, quarterback Drew Allar must elevate his performance for Penn State to defeat stronger opponents like Oregon, Ohio State, Notre Dame, or Texas.

For Boise State, the key to pulling off an upset lies in utilizing their star running back Ashton Jeanty, who ranked second in the Heisman Trophy voting after an impressive junior year.

Here are critical factors to watch in the Fiesta Bowl:

Can Penn State Contain Ashton Jeanty?

No team has succeeded so far, although Penn State has the tools to mitigate the threat posed by one of the top rushers in Bowl Subdivision history.

Jeanty enters the playoffs with an FBS-leading 2,497 rushing yards, edging closer to Barry Sanders’ single-season record. He has surpassed the 200-yard benchmark six times, including twice in his last two games, and registered at least 128 rushing yards in every contest against Bowl Subdivision teams.

In a game reminiscent of the upcoming Fiesta Bowl, Jeanty rushed for 192 yards and three touchdowns on 7.7 yards per carry against Oregon in a close 37-34 defeat.

Penn State has witnessed five opponents rush for over 100 yards, with Southern California leading the way with 189 yards and a touchdown in a narrow victory back in October. The Nittany Lions rank seventh nationally for rushing yards allowed and are tied for third in allowing just seven rushing touchdowns.

Can Boise Make Allar Carry the Load?

The Broncos possess one of the top run defenses in the Group of Five conferences. Against Oregon, they allowed only 109 rushing yards and a touchdown on 3.1 yards per carry. During the regular season, UNLV was the only team to run effectively against Boise, totaling 405 yards across two matchups—over a quarter of the Broncos’ entire rushing yardage conceded.

From a defensive strategy standpoint, Boise’s best chance for an upset lies in limiting Penn State’s passing attack and compelling Allar to shoulder the offensive burden.

This tactic could potentially backfire; while Allar can be erratic, he is an all-conference caliber player with the arm strength and awareness to compete at the next level. However, he has struggled recently, completing 50 of 87 passes for 524 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three games.

Can Penn State’s Pass Rush Be Contained?

Penn State’s run defense ranks among the best in the FBS, despite a lack of large interior linemen. Their success is largely due to effective schemes and a consistent effort along the defensive front.

Nonetheless, there is significant speed on the edges, with standout players like All-America defensive lineman Abdul Carter posing considerable challenges for Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen. However, Boise has excelled at protecting their quarterback; they are tied with Ohio State for the fewest sacks allowed among playoff teams, with just 12.