RIO DE JANEIRO – When Donald Trump first won the presidency, he caught the diplomatic community off guard by engaging in unsolicited calls with foreign leaders straight after the election—defying the norms of American diplomacy. The Obama administration was understandably displeased.

This time, the White House appears unfazed, even as international leaders divert their focus from President Joe Biden, who is attending his last G20 Summit, to the next president, who won’t officially influence U.S. foreign policy for another two months.

Trump’s anticipated return is prompting foreign governments to strategize, establishing connections with his future national security team and attempting to gain favor with the Republican before he implements his campaign promises that could jeopardize America’s military and economic ties.

“Currently, our trading partners and allies are focusing on establishing relationships with the incoming president-elect, Trump, and his potential team,” stated Kelly Ann Shaw, former deputy director of the National Economic Council during his initial term.

Trump has expressed intentions to pressure China and Europe through tariffs and other measures, and has also indicated he might re-exit the Paris climate agreement.

He has suggested that Europe should repay the U.S. for aid in military equipment for Ukraine, although the specifics are unclear, and he has promised to bring an end to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine swiftly, even prior to taking office.

“All this campaign rhetoric could be just the starting point for modifying trade practices that favor the U.S. more,” noted Andrew Payne, a lecturer at City St George’s, University of London. “However, cumulative effects could arise, and if stretched over time, they might begin to undermine the existing international order.”

In Washington, diplomatic personnel are rapidly analyzing Trump’s selected national security appointees, attempting to interpret what these appointments may imply for international relations with their countries and organizations such as the United Nations and NATO, where the U.S. has historically played a pivotal role.

“We approach this with pragmatism and realism. While we recognize the significance of the U.S., we believe it is essential to shape our own destiny without excessive dependence on them,” remarked a European diplomat.

Trump’s earlier comments this year suggesting that he had told a NATO ally that Russia could “do whatever the hell they want” with nations not investing sufficiently in defense left U.S. partners taken aback prior to last summer’s Washington summit. In response, they shifted away control of security assistance to Ukraine from the U.S. to NATO.

When Biden stumbled in a debate against Trump just days before the NATO Summit, uneasy allies began to realize the necessity of hastening efforts to decrease their dependency on the U.S.

In Eastern Europe, “regional preparations for an alternative military and geopolitical alliance are already in progress,” explained Rachel Beatty Reidl, a public policy professor at Cornell University and head of the school’s Center on Global Democracy.

“There is no misunderstanding regarding the implications of a new presidency for Russia’s strategies and their own security,” Reidl added.

In a briefing shortly after the election, Olena Prokopenko, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund and former advisor to Ukraine’s finance minister, told reporters: “There’s a recognition in Europe that Donald Trump’s return forces it to take responsibility for its defense, necessitating greater investment in military capabilities and reducing reliance on the United States.”

Leaders Rush to Connect with Trump

Four years ago, Japan’s then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the first leader to engage with Trump post-election, a move seen as beneficial. Japan was among the countries Trump visited during his inaugural year.

This time, Javier Milei, Argentina’s far-right libertarian leader, had the honor of being the first to meet Trump in-person. The two met on Thursday at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club during a conservative event.

Argentina is part of the G20 and Milei will join the group that Biden will convene this week in Brazil.

The president-elect has had over 80 congratulatory calls with international leaders since his election victory earlier this month, all while at his Florida resort, according to a source familiar with Trump’s agenda.

The transition period in the U.S. extends longer than in most other nations, leading to some awkward dynamics as incoming and outgoing leaders strive to collaborate with Biden while avoiding any hint of favoritism and potential backlash from Trump.

Biden will participate in the G20 Summit and holds presidential authority until Trump takes office on January 20. However, the chance for meaningful outcomes seems bleak. Ahead of a meeting in Peru with China’s Xi Jinping, the U.S. was unable to articulate its expectations beyond issuing warnings to Beijing regarding actions deemed detrimental and maintaining open communication lines.

“No one is eager to appear as if they are making deals under Biden, with Trump poised to take office in two months,” remarked Justin Logan from the Cato Institute, which has a libertarian viewpoint. “He will resent those he considers to have plotted with Biden before he officially assumes power.”

The Biden administration claims to be unaffected by Trump’s outreach to foreign leaders.

“It’s standard for every president-elect to receive calls from world leaders, and it’s not out of the ordinary,” stated White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Tuesday.

Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met separately with Biden. Since the U.S. election, they’ve also sought discussions with Trump. Both leaders are newcomers, having taken office this fall.

“Many new leaders are now representing significant global economies,” Shaw stated.

Milei is among the new G20 leaders succeeding those from Trump’s initial term. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was elected in 2022, while U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer took office last summer.

A divide and conquer strategy is anticipated from Trump

While the European Union has typically acted cohesively, there are concerns that if nations led by right-wing governments accept Trump’s terms, it could result in fragmentation within the bloc. Not long after the NATO summit last summer concluded, Hungary’s Viktor Orban traveled to Florida, even before Americans once again elected Trump.

French President Emmanuel Macron has warned that Trump will leverage trade policies to create rifts between China and Europe, pushing nations to choose sides. Since the U.S. election, he has actively urged Europe to defend its interests, mimicking Trump’s “America first” stance.

According to Payne, a lecturer at City in London, “Trump’s tactic will likely involve a divide and conquer methodology.”

“We can expect a shift away from collaborative strategies regarding security and economics towards a more protectionist and domineering ‘America first’ approach, aiming to coerce even traditional allies into changing their behavior to favor U.S. interests,” he explained.

Even if world leaders feel prepared, Payne predicts there will be a “shock in Europe when these actions commence.” Unlike during his previous presidency, he noted that “Trump may actually follow through with these threats this time.”

Even the current U.S. president has attempted to persuade Trump to retain established foreign policy goals. Biden welcomed Trump to the White House for a two-hour discussion where they addressed issues such as Ukraine, the conflict in Gaza, and tensions between Israel and Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon.

“Biden reinforced that ongoing support for Ukraine aligns with U.S. national security interests,” conveyed Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Adviser, to reporters. “Maintaining a stable Europe and countering aggressors and dictators is crucial to ensuring we avoid being dragged into another war, a situation we’ve experienced twice in the 20th century on the European continent.”

Trumpism’s return, but for how long?

Reflecting on a previous meeting of G7 leaders a few months into his presidency, Biden recounted telling Macron that “America’s back,” to which Macron questioned, “For how long?”

Since then, Biden has noted that numerous leaders have confided in him at international summits, urging him not to let Trump win another term.

During his discussions at the G20, Biden will emphasize that the U.S. is a steadfast partner as he attempts to maintain the alliances he cultivated with nations like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the U.K. through the AUKUS partnership from being disrupted.

“He will advocate to our allies, and even our adversaries, that the U.S. is committed to its alliances and expects its partners to continue stepping up, which they have done over the past four years, as it is fundamental to America’s strength on the global stage,” Sullivan stated.

Biden might now find his efforts rebuffed.

“The election results indicate a complete rejection of the Biden administration’s policies,” Shaw commented. “The incoming Trump administration feels strongly that it has a mandate to redirect the U.S. economy.”