Following last year’s record-breaking warm winter, meteorologists predict that this winter may also be unusually mild across much of the United States, as announced by federal forecasters on Thursday.

Experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center indicated that warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected for the southern U.S. and the East Coast this winter. Additionally, the southern half of the country, stretching from southern California to the Carolinas, is likely to experience less precipitation, which raises concerns about potential droughts.

“An emerging La Niña is expected to shape our winter patterns, particularly regarding precipitation forecasts,” stated Jon Gottschalck, head of the Operational Prediction Branch at the Climate Prediction Center.

This forecast covers the months of December, January, and February, which are collectively referred to as meteorological winter.

Milder winter expected in the South and East

The forecast unveiled on Thursday suggests that warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely from the southern U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, the Eastern Seaboard, New England, and northern Alaska. The highest probabilities are found along the Gulf Coast and much of Texas, according to NOAA.

During a news briefing, Gottschalck noted that the occurrence of the polar vortex is expected to be lower than usual this winter.

In contrast, the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, and southern Alaska are forecasted to experience below-average temperatures this winter.

Where to expect a wetter winter?

The Great Lakes region is projected to have wetter conditions, with higher-than-average rainfall also anticipated in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern U.S. The strongest probabilities for increased precipitation are identified in parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky, according to NOAA.

On the other hand, states close to the Gulf of Mexico, along with Texas and southern New Mexico, are expected to have drier-than-normal conditions.

Weak La Niña forecasted

While the expected La Niña phenomenon has yet to manifest, it is anticipated to develop within the next month.

The Climate Prediction Center recently stated there is a 60% probability that La Niña conditions will appear by the end of November, and once established, it is expected to continue through January-March 2025.

Drought remains a concern

The forecast indicates that drought conditions may either develop or intensify in areas of the Southwest and Gulf Coast.

“Unfortunately, despite a brief period in spring 2024 with minimal drought, over a quarter of the continental U.S. is currently experiencing at least moderate drought,” expressed Brad Pugh, operational drought lead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “And the outlook for winter precipitation does not bode well for significant relief.”

What about winter storms?

The recent forecast primarily outlines the possibilities of above- or below-average temperatures and precipitation, without determining whether it will come as rain, snow, or ice. Predicting specific snowfall amounts is challenging, as it typically depends on the severity and path of winter storms, which can only be accurately forecasted up to around a week ahead of time.

Nevertheless, Gottschalck mentioned that

The path that nor’easters take along the East Coast may bring milder temperatures to the major cities in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, which could lead to more rainfall instead of snowfall in those areas. However, experts caution that snowstorms are still a possibility, depending on the exact weather conditions at the time.

Exclusions from Current Forecasts

Current weather forecasts do not consider certain climate patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation, which can cause very cold temperatures in the central and eastern United States. This is because such patterns are not predictable more than one or two weeks ahead of time.

Furthermore, large-scale atmospheric climate patterns, like the Madden-Julian Oscillation, can impact the frequency of heavy rain on the West Coast and contribute to extreme weather events across the United States, including outbreaks of arctic air during winter months, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

Interestingly, the forecast also omits factors like the snow cover in Siberia, which other meteorologists often use to inform their winter weather predictions.

Last Winter Influenced by El Nino

The winter season of 2023-24 was significantly affected by a strong El Nino. This led to the 2023-24 winter being recorded as the warmest in history for the contiguous United States. In fact, eight states in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast experienced their hottest winter on record, as reported by NOAA.