The initial semifinal of the College Football Playoff is set to take place in sunny Florida, while the rest of the country deals with a chilly spell during the first full week of the new year.

Notre Dame and Penn State are set to face off in the Orange Bowl, with the victorious team securing a spot in the national championship game and a chance to end their long title drought. The last time the Irish held the top spot in college football was in 1988, while the Nittany Lions won their latest title in 1986.

An interesting aspect of this matchup is that both teams are coached by Black coaches: Marcus Freeman of Notre Dame and James Franklin of Penn State. This guarantees an historic moment, as it will be the first time a Black coach competes in the Bowl Subdivision national championship game.

On the field, the teams are quite similar. Both feature top-tier defenses but struggle with offensive explosiveness against high-quality adversaries. This game is shaping up to be a classic battle where a single turnover or a major play could determine the outcome. So, who will emerge victorious? Our analysts share their insights.

Scooby Axson

Anticipate this game to be a defensive slugfest; thus, the team that can maintain a strong running game and effectively utilize their quarterback will likely secure the win. Typically, in contests featuring two top 10 defenses, the team that reaches 17 points first tends to prevail. Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard doesn’t necessarily need to rely on his passing arm, similar to the strategy in the victory over Georgia, but making plays with his legs to extend drives could be crucial. Notre Dame 24, Penn State 9.

Jordan Mendoza

The real question is: which defense will stand out? Both Penn State and Notre Dame have been effective in containing their opponents, so both offenses will need to earn every point. While Penn State’s offensive unit appears more dynamic than Notre Dame’s, the Fighting Irish are adept at forcing turnovers and have recorded the most this season. Notre Dame manages to exploit Drew Allar’s vulnerabilities and squeaks past the Nittany Lions in a tough contest. Notre Dame 20, Penn State 16.

Paul Myerberg

The clash of two top-tier defenses will determine who moves on to the championship game. The Orange Bowl will likely hinge on turnovers and which quarterback can best cope with pressure and convert on third downs. While Penn State has stronger passing options, Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard’s mobility will be a significant advantage for extending plays during critical moments. Expect a low-scoring showdown that comes down to the wire, with the Irish emerging victorious. Notre Dame 23, Penn State 16.

Erick Smith

James Franklin’s struggles against formidable opponents are well-documented, and Penn State has frequently stumbled in critical matchups partly due to questionable coaching choices. Will he and the Nittany Lions finally overcome that trend? They boast a stronger offense, with Tyler Warren posing a unique threat that Notre Dame may struggle to contain. However, similar to most significant games featuring elite defenses, this one should be closely contested and may hinge on a few pivotal plays. The Fighting Irish have demonstrated a stronger ability to secure wins in such scenarios, making them favorites once again. Notre Dame 20, Penn State 17.

Eddie Timanus

This matchup doesn’t favor Penn State; they will require substantial contributions from their passing game, which may be stymied by Notre Dame’s exceptional secondary. While the Fighting Irish also have challenges in the passing game, quarterback Riley Leonard’s ability to escape pressure adds a new dynamic that could prove decisive. Notre Dame 26, Penn State 13.

Dan Wolken

The nuances of the new College Football Playoff system are becoming evident. Despite Notre Dame’s impressive initial victories, they are carrying injuries. Key defensive lineman Rylie Mills is out for the season, and tight end Cooper Flanagan faced an injury recently. Although running back Jeremiyah Love and defensive lineman Howard Cross appear to be participating after their injuries, Penn State’s greatest concern is Abdul Carter, their top defensive player who exited the quarterfinals early. His condition will be pivotal. Ultimately, I lean towards the healthier team. Penn State 27, Notre Dame 23.