As the nation focuses on key swing states that will be crucial for the 2024 presidential election, it could take several days to determine the winners in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The regulations in these states about when ballots can be processed might lead to a situation similar to 2020, when Pennsylvania’s election results weren’t finalized until the Saturday following the election, at which point Democratic candidate Joe Biden secured enough votes for the Electoral College.

After the prolonged wait in 2020, many states revised their voting laws to expedite the counting of mail-in, absentee, and overseas ballots. Although Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are generally grouped with Michigan as part of the “blue wall” of Rust Belt swing states, they differ significantly from Michigan: Michigan permits election workers to start counting mail-in ballots more than a week before Election Day, although results are kept secret until the polls close.

Unfortunately, the legislatures in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not implemented similar changes, meaning their election outcomes are expected to roll in later than those from Michigan and other swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin require election officials to wait until 7 a.m. on Election Day before they can start opening and counting absentee ballots, all while also managing in-person voting.

The Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania describes this situation on its website: “Hundreds of thousands – sometimes millions – of mail ballots are cast in every election, and current state law prohibits counties from beginning to open these ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. This means that county election officials cannot even start to remove the ballots from their envelopes and prepare them for scanning until that time, which coincides with managing over 9,000 polling locations statewide.”

No early processing available for mail-in or absentee ballots

Research from the Brennan Center for Justice indicates that 43 states permit the pre-processing of mail-in ballots. This process involves verifying voter details and eligibility, opening the ballot envelope, and extracting the ballot itself.

Carolina Lopez, the executive director of the Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions, emphasized that the lack of pre-processing is not an indication that Pennsylvania or Wisconsin are inefficient or have procedural issues.

“Not all states operate on the same level. For instance, Florida can deliver results faster because it allows for 22 days of pre-processing,” she explained. “In contrast, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin must wait until Election Day to start, so it’s purely a numbers game. This doesn’t imply that Florida’s systems are better or worse – it indicates differing legal frameworks.”

‘People need to remain patient’

Election officials in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have consistently urged their legislatures since 2020 to allow for the pre-processing of ballots, noted Lawrence Norden, Vice President of the Elections & Government Program at the Brennan Center for Justice.

“In both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, officials have been advocating for years, especially post-2020, to permit them to start processing mail ballots earlier, akin to other key swing states, so that they can report results directly on election night. However, their legislatures have not responded,” he commented.

Due to the lack of legislative action, local administrators are attempting to address the issue independently.

In Pennsylvania, the Democratic-run House and the Republican-led Senate could not reach an agreement on a bill that would permit early ballot processing. Republicans wanted to link it to stricter voter ID laws, which Democrats opposed. When Republicans had control of both chambers in 2021, they tried to expand voter ID laws, but the Democratic governor vetoed it.

Pennsylvania has made strides since 2020, and it’s anticipated that the ballot counting won’t take as long as last time. County election officials now have several election cycles under their belt with mail-in voting and have received funding through state grants to purchase new machines that will help them process mail-in ballots more efficiently.

According to Abigail Gardner, a spokesperson for Allegheny County government, officials are ready to handle up to 250,000 absentee ballots and about 450,000 votes cast in-person. She mentioned that ballot counting could be quicker than in 2020 due to a lower expected number of absentee ballots, along with the hiring of additional staff and the acquisition of high-speed envelope opening machines.

In Wisconsin, where Republicans control both legislative chambers, a Republican initiative to permit early ballot canvassing faced a setback in the Senate back in February. The state Assembly had previously approved a bill in November that would allow election workers to begin processing absentee ballots the day before the election. The Democratic governor indicated he would approve the bill if it reached him.

Local election officials can decide whether to count mail-in ballots at their polling places or at a central location. Most larger districts have opted for central locations and purchased high-speed machines for quicker processing, according to Marge Bostelmann, a member of the Wisconsin Elections Commission, speaking to YSL News.

“Counting may be a bit quicker this time, but it really hinges on how fast the ballots are processed and how quickly the machines can read them once they’re submitted,” Bostelmann noted.

As of October 31, Wisconsin had received over 1.2 million absentee and mail-in ballots. In the previous election in 2020, the Associated Press called the result around 2 p.m. the day after the election. State election officials have cautioned that it could be late at night or even Wednesday before all mail-in ballots are counted.

Jay Heck, the executive director of the good-government organization Common Cause in Wisconsin, indicated that in-person votes are expected to be tallied by midnight on Election Day. However, the counting of absentee ballots for final unofficial results might take until 2 a.m.

“People need to practice patience,” Heck advised.

In 2020, Trump claimed victory before all votes were counted

In the last election, then-President Donald Trump, who is running again as the Republican nominee in 2024, did not wait for the mail-in votes to be tallied. He announced victory while he was ahead, as his supporters were more likely to have voted in person. Later, he made unfounded claims of midnight “ballot dumps” of illegal votes when the mail-in ballots were counted, which in many states occurred during the night.

When the final count revealed that Biden won Pennsylvania by nearly 80,000 votes, Trump alleged, without evidence, that the election was being stolen from him in that state. He also alleged fraud when Biden secured a win in Wisconsin by a margin of 20,700 votes.

Polls consistently show a tight competition between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in critical states, including Wisconsin, where a late October YSL News/Suffolk University poll shows Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point at 48% to 47%, and in Pennsylvania, where Trump leads by less than a point in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Trump has urged his supporters at rallies to anticipate a significant win on Tuesday, mentioning on October 30 that he could only foresee losing “if it was a corrupt election.”

“If millions of people think this election can only have one winner, imagine the shock if that candidate loses and how that could lead to anger and potentially violence after the election,” warned David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research.

‘Just don’t have the money or the staffing’

In Pennsylvania, an additional complication arises as some voters opt for mail-in ballots instead of voting early in person. Many counties that lack early voting options let individuals apply for a mail-in ballot in person, allowing them to fill it out and drop it off immediately.

As of October 31, nearly 2.2 million absentee and mail-in ballots had been received by the state.

Data from Pennsylvania reveals that while more Republicans are voting by mail, they are still outnumbered by Democrats in this regard.

Wesley Leckrone, a Political Science Professor at Widener University with expertise in Pennsylvania politics, expressed that he expects larger metropolitan areas to process those ballots efficiently due to sufficient funding to hire staff. However, he worries that suburban counties with high populations, which play a crucial role in determining election outcomes, might struggle to process results by Tuesday, and the final outcome could take several more days.

“Many counties simply lack the necessary funds or staff for this process,”

He mentioned, “It’s possible that Trump will be announced at 10 o’clock on Tuesday night, but not all the mail-in ballots may have been counted by then.”