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HomeSportCrunching the Numbers: Forecasting the SEC Teams in the College Football Playoff...

Crunching the Numbers: Forecasting the SEC Teams in the College Football Playoff Ranking Top 10

 

 

Projection of College Football Playoff Rankings: How Will SEC Teams in the Top 10 Position Themselves?


This week, Georgia is expected to improve its standing in the College Football Playoff rankings thanks to Tennessee’s defeat, while Brigham Young University (BYU) is likely to slide down after their loss to Kansas on Saturday night.

 

The playoff selection committee has already highlighted the importance of head-to-head matchups when evaluating two-loss SEC teams. Although Georgia secured a 31-17 victory against Tennessee last weekend, it’s unlikely they will surpass Alabama and Mississippi in the rankings.

BYU was ranked sixth last week but is expected to drop by seven or more positions following their narrow 17-13 loss to Kansas. If the Cougars manage to defeat Colorado in the Big 12 championship, they may regain a higher ranking than Boise State, but the Broncos are projected to rank higher on Tuesday, indicating a Group of Five team could secure an opening-round playoff bye.

No changes are anticipated in the top five after Oregon narrowly defeated Wisconsin. Other teams that were positioned behind Tennessee and BYU last week should see a two-position rise in the rankings, making this week relatively straightforward for the committee.

 

1. Oregon (11-0)

Oregon managed to maintain its No. 1 ranking even if they had lost to Wisconsin, owing to their earlier victory over Ohio State. Their 16-13 win against the Badgers marked the Ducks’ second close matchup with a Big Ten team this season, in addition to victories against Ohio State and Boise State. This powerful combination of wins is tough to rival.

 

2. Ohio State (9-1)

As Ohio State approaches Saturday’s game with Indiana, a pressing question arises: can the Buckeyes afford to lose and still secure a playoff spot? This dilemma is complex and hinges on how other SEC teams perform. A close loss might still showcase Ohio State’s ability to compete against top-tier teams in the Big Ten, marked by their victory over Penn State. This may open the door for four Big Ten teams to make the playoff cut.

3. Texas (9-1)

Texas stands as the highest-ranked SEC team since they are currently the only one-loss team in the conference. However, it is essential to address their relatively weak schedule, which might endanger their playoff aspirations if they lose to Texas A&M during the season finale.

4. Penn State (9-1)

Penn State has positioned itself well for an at-large bid, bouncing back from its loss to Ohio State with two dominant wins over Washington and Purdue. Their upcoming road game against Minnesota, which faced a setback against Rutgers after a four-game winning streak, is crucial as it could present challenges on their path to the playoff.

 

5. Indiana (10-0)

Flipping the question, would a loss to Ohio State eliminate Indiana from contention? This too is complex. A close loss could maintain their eligibility for an at-large bid, considering the committee respects their unbeaten record. However, a significant loss may prompt scrutiny of a schedule with only one win over a team currently above .500.

6. Notre Dame (9-1)

Notre Dame’s standing is somewhat shaken by Louisville and Navy’s recent downturns, but this will only matter if they falter against Army or Southern California in the season’s final games. The Irish have been prolific in offense, averaging nearly 43 points per game during their eight-game winning run.

 

7. Miami (9-1)

Clemson’s victory over Pittsburgh has reinforced the need for Miami to win their remaining games against Wake Forest and Syracuse to qualify for the ACC Championship. Without a significant win, the Hurricanes are unlikely to earn an at-large bid unless they compete for the conference title.

8. Alabama (8-2)

Alabama remains static after a less-than-inspiring victory against Mercer. They won’t surpass Miami, nor will they drop despite likely shifts involving Missouri and LSU. With Tennessee’s loss behind them, Alabama stands a good chance of contending for the SEC championship, provided they avoid setbacks against Oklahoma and in the Iron Bowl against Auburn.

 

9. Mississippi (8-2)

Florida’s resurgence against a challenging schedule benefits the Rebels, who need to enhance their standing by securing more wins against top bowl-eligible teams. Both South Carolina and their previous matchup with Georgia have set them on a path toward postseason participation, while teams like Florida, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are close to bowl eligibility with one win needed.

10. Georgia (8-2)

Georgia’s win against Tennessee should elevate them back into the playoff discussions as they approach upcoming games against Massachusetts and Georgia Tech to finish the season. While they may not reach the SEC Championship, they could end up in third place within the conference standings and potentially host an opening-round playoff game.