This week, as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season approaches its conclusion, it seems to be experiencing a temporary quiet period. Many are asking if the season, which saw major hurricanes like Helene and Milton, has come to an end.

As of Tuesday, there are no hurricanes or tropical storms in the Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center predicts no development is expected in the next week.

Nevertheless, AccuWeather meteorologists suggest there’s a moderate likelihood for a tropical depression or storm to develop next week. If that occurs, the next designated storms for the 2024 season would be named Patty and Rafael.

Is a storm on the horizon?

“We believe there’s a chance for another tropical depression or storm to form in the western Caribbean around the middle to later part of next week,” stated Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief on-air meteorologist.

The exceptionally warm waters that have contributed to tropical development throughout the season persist, particularly in the Caribbean. When paired with minimal wind shear, these conditions may favor the formation of tropical cyclones.

“A large storm system or gyre could again emerge near the western Caribbean, which, alongside the warm waters and low wind shear, might encourage the development of a new but gradual system,” noted AccuWeather.

In case a storm develops and heads toward the U.S., there’s some reassuring news: “Long-range forecasts predict very severe wind shear across Florida and the east coast of the U.S. into the first week of November, which would shield us from any potential disturbances in the coming weeks,” remarked meteorologist Michael Lowry from WPLG-TV.

However, it is still too early to discuss potential storm paths.

“The trajectory of any new tropical system in the Caribbean will rely on its exact place of formation and the overall strength and behavior of non-tropical systems further north in the United States and western Atlantic,” AccuWeather elaborated.

Overview of the Atlantic hurricane season: Is it rare to have storms in November?

The Atlantic hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30. November typically is a quieter month as the season comes to a close.

Since the start of official record-keeping for Atlantic storms around 174 years ago, almost 600 storms have impacted the U.S. coastline. Of these, only about a dozen have made landfall in November, according to Lowry.

“On average, named storms affecting the United States in November occur roughly once every 15 years. They are quite uncommon, but when they do happen, they almost always hit Florida,” he explained.

Why are meteorologists keeping an eye on tropical waves?

Meteorologists will be monitoring tropical waves in the Caribbean in the upcoming week and beyond. AccuWeather’s senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski mentioned that 85% of all tropical storms originate from tropical waves.

In simple terms, a tropical wave is a cluster of clouds and thunderstorms that typically move from east to west, also referred to as an easterly wave by the National Weather Service.

If the conditions are suitable, a tropical wave can evolve into a tropical depression or named storm, and potentially develop into a hurricane.