Is it true that all relief pitchers are just unsuccessful starters?

In the case of Billy Wagner, absolutely not.

This powerful left-handed pitcher never started a game in the majors (although he did in the minors). It’s possible Wagner could have been a starting pitcher in MLB, but his effectiveness in the bullpen made that unlikely.

Drafted as the 12th overall pick by the Houston Astros in 1993 out of Ferrum College in Virginia, Wagner had an incredible fastball, especially considering he was just 5-foot-10 and weighed 180 pounds. After making his MLB debut in 1996, he began to overpower hitters right away and quickly took on the role of the team’s closer. He earned his first of seven All-Star selections in 1999, posting an impressive 1.57 ERA alongside 39 saves, finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young voting that year.

Wagner played nine seasons in Houston, becoming the franchise’s all-time leader in saves before being traded to Philadelphia in 2004. He was later selected as an All-Star while with the Phillies, Mets, and Braves, concluding his career after the 2010 season.

Over 16 years in Major League Baseball, Wagner recorded a 2.31 ERA, 422 saves, and 1,196 strikeouts across 903 innings. Will these achievements be sufficient for him to secure a spot in Cooperstown during his final year on the BBWAA ballot?

Why Wagner Deserves a Hall of Fame Spot

If one word could sum up Billy Wagner, it would be overpowering.

He ranks among the best in baseball history for both striking out hitters and preventing hard contact. For all pitchers with at least 900 major league innings, Wagner is ranked first in the history of MLB for both strikeouts (11.9) and hits allowed (6.0) per inning.

His level of dominance made him a reliable asset at the end of the bullpen—especially from 1997 to 2008, when he maintained an ERA below 3.00 and secured at least 20 saves in 11 out of 12 seasons.

With seven All-Star selections, Wagner is on par with Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman. However, Wagner’s stats are even more impressive, despite Hoffman having 153 more appearances and 179 additional saves. When looking at WAR, Wagner (27.7) and Hoffman (28.0) are nearly identical.

Arguments Against Wagner

A common metric for evaluating relief pitchers is their total number of saves. Hall of Famers Hoffman (601) and Mariano Rivera (652) lead the all-time list, with Wagner in eighth place at 422 saves and trailing active players like Kenley Jansen (447) and Craig Kimbrel (440), as well as fellow ballot contender Francisco Rodriguez (437).

There’s also the question of the significance of a player who typically only plays for one inning every couple of days. Should Wagner really be compared to Hall of Famers like Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, and Bruce Sutter?

Additionally, Wagner lacks a defining moment in his career. His teams only won one out of eight playoff series, and his performance did little to help.

In his 11 and 2/3 postseason innings, he surrendered 21 hits and 13 earned runs, resulting in a 10.03 ERA.

Trends in Voting

According to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker, as of January 16, Wagner has appeared on 84.7% of the publicly revealed ballots.

Wagner’s candidacy has gained notable traction in recent years as the very crowded ballots slowly began to thin out, allowing for a closer examination of his qualifications.

• 2016: 10.5%
• 2017: 10.2%
• 2018: 11.1%
• 2019: 16.7%
• 2020: 31.7%
• 2021: 46.4%
• 2022: 51.0%
• 2023: 68.1%
• 2024: 73.8%

Realistic Prospects

As the leading returning vote-getter for the 2025 ballot, Wagner appears to have a strong chance of being inducted into Cooperstown during his last year of eligibility.

Though it has taken some time for voters to appreciate Wagner’s excellence fully, his impressive numbers clearly demonstrate how dominant he was over a lengthy career. With only a handful of true relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame, Wagner is deserving of a spot among the finest.

(All statistics, including WAR, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com)