(This article has been updated to include the latest information.)

As voters headed to the polls on Tuesday, betting markets indicated an increase in the likelihood of former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election across various offshore platforms.

This past weekend, on Kalshi, the largest regulated betting exchange in the U.S., bettors reduced Trump’s chances to as low as 49% by Saturday evening. However, by Tuesday at 10:30 p.m., Trump’s odds rebounded to 82% on the same platform.

According to Polymarket, a crypto trading site, Trump’s chances of winning were at 88% on Tuesday at 10:30 p.m. EST. Two major UK betting sites, Sporting Index and Betfair Exchange, placed Trump’s winning odds even higher at 92%.

Changes in Betting Markets during October

On Polymarket, the chances of Trump and Harris winning were even at 49% on October 3. Following this, Trump’s odds surged to their highest point last week since July 21, the day President Joe Biden exited the race.

Trump’s increasing odds in October matched a slight rise in his polling numbers in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania. Some observers, however, expressed skepticism about the abrupt spike in his winning probability, suggesting that a wealthy bettor or group of bettors may be influencing the odds. Polymarket officials are examining these allegations.

Just last week, the difference between Trump’s and Harris’ winning odds equalled the gap observed between Biden and Trump in the 2020 election. Those odds are now closer together, even as polling results in critical states have remained stable. In 2020, Biden’s polling lead was nearly three times greater than the current margin between Trump and Harris.

Bettors Elevate Trump’s Winning Chances Compared to Past Elections

At the beginning of the week, Trump’s odds of winning were several percentage points lower than the peak he achieved at the start of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, his chances of defeating Biden exceeded 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

A study published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2004 notes that the leading betting favorite in the month leading up to the election has only lost twice, in 1916 and 1948. Additionally, betting markets were inaccurate in forecasting Trump’s victory in 2016.