A recent survey of climate scientists indicates that most believe the Earth is on track for a significant increase in global temperatures, surpassing the targets set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed for a rise of 1.5 to well below 2 degrees Celsius. The survey also demonstrates that around two-thirds of the experts think that achieving net zero CO2 emissions is possible in the latter half of this century. This shows a hint of optimism that our efforts to reduce emissions might be starting to shift the trajectory toward what is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
A recent survey of climate scientists indicates that most believe the Earth is on track for a significant increase in global temperatures, surpassing the targets set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed for a rise of 1.5 to well below 2°C.
This study appears in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment. The findings indicate that two-thirds of those surveyed—who are all contributors to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—believe that reaching net zero CO2 emissions might be achievable in the second half of this century. This reflects a sense of hope that our efforts to mitigate climate change could begin to steer emissions in the right direction to meet the Paris temperature objectives.
Furthermore, a large number of participants recognized the potential for CO2 removal from the atmosphere, with a median belief that technology could eliminate up to five gigatons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) annually by 2050, which falls on the lower end of what is considered necessary to fulfill the Paris targets.
“We aimed to gather insights from leading climate experts concerning their views on possible future climate scenarios,” stated Seth Wynes, the lead author of the paper and a former postdoctoral fellow at Concordia, now serving as an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo.
“These researchers also play a crucial role in climate change communication, meaning their sense of optimism or pessimism can influence how policymakers interpret information about climate issues.”
More action is essential to prevent disaster
The 211 experts surveyed mostly felt pessimistic about achieving the Paris targets under existing policies, with 86 percent predicting warming would exceed 2°C by the year 2100. The average anticipated increase was 2.7°C, a rise that could lead to severe consequences for the planet.
Co-author Damon Matthews, a professor in the Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, clarifies that these interpretations do not confirm that such warming will necessarily occur.
“These responses are more about capturing perceptions within the scientific community than making specific predictions about future warming. The findings align closely with earlier forecasts regarding the impacts of current climate policies without increased ambition, ranging between 2.5 and 3°C.”
In addition to questions about possible climate outcomes, the participants were asked to assess what they believed their colleagues would respond to similar inquiries.
“There was a noticeable connection between individual beliefs and perceptions of their peers’ beliefs,” Wynes noted. “Many participants tended to view their own views as reflective of the broader community’s perspective, which could suggest an overconfidence in their positions. This presents a valuable opportunity for them to reconsider what their peers actually think.”
Data-driven decisions are vital
As an IPCC contributor himself, Matthews acknowledges that while scientists’ insights into climate scenarios are important, a broader array of perspectives on climate change issues is essential for slowing its progression.
“Climate scientists clearly have expertise in climate dynamics and transitions in energy, but the actual reduction of emissions will depend on policy enactment and societal changes,” he remarked.
“Ultimately, the address of the climate challenge lies in the hands of policymakers and the public they represent, and all possible outcomes are still very much on the table.”
