The rising use of GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Wegovy is expected to contribute to a decrease in calorie intake by a staggering 10 trillion kilocalories for U.S. adults by the year 2030, as suggested by a recent report.

This anticipated reduction in total calorie consumption marks the first significant decline since the 1960s and comes from a report produced by Impact Analytics, which was released on October 9. The findings were based on grocery retail sales data from several regions across the U.S., including the Northeast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest.

According to the AI-driven data group, by 2030, the average American adult is projected to consume between 100 and 800 fewer kilocalories each year, resulting in a total reduction of around 10 trillion kilocalories annually for most adults.

Presently, the average American consumes approximately 3,864 calories daily, based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture that was updated in early 2023.

The report anticipates that this average will decline to somewhere between 2,800 and 3,500 calories per day for many adults.

One of the key reasons identified for this shift includes the increased use of GLP-1 medications, along with public initiatives aimed at improving health, such as calorie labeling and soda taxes, and a growing awareness regarding the importance of health. This overall movement towards healthier eating habits and distaste for overly processed foods is expected to change how grocery stores will present their products, as outlined in the report.

Sales of healthy foods have increased recently

From 2022 to 2024, the sales of healthy food categories in the U.S. have shown growth, rising about 5-8.7% annually, according to the report.

“We’re moving away from sugary, processed foods towards more nutritious options,” said Prashant Agrawal, CEO of Impact Analytics, in an interview with YSL News. “GLP-1 usage is influencing this trend. Additionally, there is growing concern among consumers about ultra-processed foods.”

Among the regions, grocery stores in the Midwest are experiencing the highest growth in healthy food sales, averaging increases of 10-22%, while the Northeast has seen a shift of 0.5-5% away from unhealthy food options.

There is also rising demand for fresh fruits and organic products, with fresh fruit sales up by 12.4% and vegetable sales increasing by 9.2% from 2023 to 2024.

Agrawal further noted that he anticipates changes in grocery assortments and store layouts within five years as a result of this shift.

The rise in GLP-1 drug usage

Since the FDA approved Wegovy (semaglutide) for chronic weight management in 2021, the use of GLP-1 medications has skyrocketed in the U.S. This marked the introduction of the first chronic weight management drug for overweight or obese adults since 2014.

Consumer interest in GLP-1 receptor medications has surged, with quarterly sales exceeding $1.1 billion by mid-2023, as per a report from the Congressional Budget Office.

According to the American Pharmacists Association, last year, one out of every 60 adults received a prescription for a GLP-1 medication, and this figure is predicted to continue rising.

This story has been updated to correct an earlier inaccuracy.