The Republican dominance in Florida may not be as overwhelming as previously thought, according to a recent presidential poll.

A new YSL News/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters, shows Vice President Kamala Harris is surprisingly close to former President Donald Trump in Florida.

Trump is ahead of Harris by just 5 percentage points, a figure that is considerably closer than in earlier surveys and significantly less than Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 19-point victory in 2022. This gap falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4% and indicates the excitement Harris is generating among Democratic voters since she entered the race.

The survey indicates that 47% of participants back Trump, compared to 42% for Harris and 5% for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 5% remain undecided. This poll was conducted by phone from August 7 to August 11.

Florida’s reputation as a key battleground state has come into question in recent years, particularly after Trump won against President Joe Biden by 3.3 points in 2020, and DeSantis achieved a significant victory two years later, leaving Democrats trailing in voter registration.

Currently, there are a million more registered Republicans than Democrats in Florida, making it a challenging environment for any Democratic candidate.

“Given the circumstances, it’s surprising that Harris is just 5 points behind,” remarked David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

Warning Signs

While not an outright alarm for Trump, this survey serves as a warning for those who assume Florida will easily swing in his favor, according to Paleologos.

“What used to be a smooth ride through Florida now requires caution,” he noted, emphasizing that Harris is “still the underdog but is closer than expected.”

An unsettling trend for the Republican candidate is the level of enthusiasm among Harris’ supporters in Florida, which matches Trump’s, with 89% from both groups expressing excitement about voting for their respective candidates.

A June YSL News/Suffolk national poll revealed only 60% of Biden’s supporters across the country were excited to back him. Biden suspended his campaign last month, paving the way for Harris to lead the Democratic ticket.

Harris is also seen more favorably than Biden in Florida, with 44% of voters expressing a positive opinion of her, compared to just 39% for Biden, although this too falls within the margin of error.

Since taking the lead from Biden, Harris has revitalized the Democratic base, securing substantial funding and attracting large rally crowds across the nation last week.

Meanwhile, Trump is having difficulty framing his new rival and resorting to personal attacks that some within his party view as counterproductive. He faced significant backlash for remarks questioning the racial identity of Harris, the first Black and Indian American vice president, which could be detrimental given Florida’s sizable Black voter population.

Despite these challenges, Trump’s favorability rating remains higher than both Harris’ and Biden’s in Florida at 50%, and his job approval rating during his presidency is also superior to Harris’ current rating as vice president.

In the YSL News/Suffolk survey, Trump is losing leverage among independent voters in Florida, trailing by 7 points. In the 2020 election, he lost independent voters by 11 points to Biden but still won the state.

Voter Perspectives

Janie Brookbank, a 72-year-old independent voter, is enthusiastic about voting for Harris. A retired small business owner originally from Michigan, she spent a significant portion of her life in California before relocating to Florida a decade ago, where she is involved in voter registration with the League of Women Voters.

Once a registered Republican, Brookbank admires figures like Sen. Mitt Romney but no longer aligns with the party. She is strongly against Trump and previously supported his Democratic opponent.

The sentiment against Trump from some voters has remained strong since the elections in 2016 and 2020.

“He’s mean and cruel, particularly toward women. He lies and cheats. There isn’t a single part of him that I can respect—he’s simply terrible,” stated Brookbank.

While she wasn’t overly keen on voting for Biden, Brookbank was ready to support him to prevent Trump from returning to the White House. However, she feels much more enthusiastic about Harris. Although Brookbank was never a major admirer of the vice president, she was impressed with how Harris performed after Biden exited the race.

“She’s a powerhouse, full of energy and capable of instilling fear in her rivals,” Brookbank remarked.

Barbara Oppenheimer, a 79-year-old resident of Ocala, also expressed strong criticism of Trump, describing him as “dictatorial.”

She was particularly disturbed by the events of January 6, 2021, when a group of Trump supporters raided the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

“That was just wrong,” remarked Oppenheimer, a Republican. “He encouraged that behavior, and it should not have happened.”

Oppenheimer prioritizes abortion rights and doubts that Trump would safeguard them. This year, Florida voters will see a measure on the ballot that seeks to enshrine abortion protections into the state Constitution.

Although Oppenheimer voted for Trump in 2020 because she wanted to give him a chance, she now intends to vote for Kennedy. While she thinks Harris is “fine” and could serve well as president, she has a fondness for the Kennedy family, despite the fact that many of Kennedy’s relatives oppose his campaign.

Even with a considerable amount of anti-Trump sentiment existing in Florida, there remains a robust group of his supporters. Among them is David Pittenger, an 86-year-old retired physician from Clearwater.

Pittenger listed illegal immigration and inflation as his top concerns, praising Trump’s tactics on these issues. He feels Harris “has done nothing,” stating that he moved to Florida from Missouri in 2010.

“She claims to represent common people, but her actions have not demonstrated support for the average person,” said Pittenger.