WASHINGTON – A prominent Senate figure is vying for re-election in Texas. Meanwhile, in Nebraska, an independent candidate is stirring things up in a state that typically leans Republican.

In Florida, a former congresswoman who speaks Spanish is taking on one of Donald Trump’s steadfast supporters in Congress. Concurrently, in Maryland, a Republican who opposes Trump is attempting to position himself in the political center.

As the 2024 fight for control of the U.S. Senate largely focuses on key presidential battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, other states, which might seem like sure wins for Kamala Harris or Trump, also have contests that could become competitive.

The chances that challengers will oust the frontrunners in these races are slim. However, with only three weeks left and mail-in voting already in progress, candidates are actively competing on debate stages and through TV ads, investing millions to broadcast their messages before Election Day.

The outcomes in these states may significantly influence which party has Senate control as both sides seek to establish stronger positioning in a nearly evenly divided electoral landscape.

Without a Senate guided by their party, the next president may find it challenging to implement the more ambitious aspects of their campaign agenda. The Senate holds exclusive authority for confirming presidential Cabinet members and judges, from federal district courts to the Supreme Court, where four justices are soon to reach their 70s.

Here’s a quick overview of the situation.

Texas

In Texas, the Democrats see a promising opportunity to flip a Senate seat this election. Currently, the position is held by Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who has previously worked in the George W. Bush administration and was Texas’ solicitor general before joining the Senate in 2012.

Cruz narrowly secured victory six years ago, with former Representative Beto O’Rourke coming close to defeating him by just three points in this traditionally conservative state. Democrats view that close race as a sign of potential success in Texas for 2024.

This year, they have nominated Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker turned Congressman, who is originally from Dallas and played for the Tennessee Titans for five seasons before entering the Obama administration. If elected, Allred would become Texas’ first Black senator.

Allred is aiming for a central position, championing Democratic principles like abortion rights while also distancing himself from party leadership and pledging to enforce stricter border security. In response, Cruz insists he has shifted from a confrontational partisan figure to a collaborative legislator, attacking Allred on issues such as immigration, the economy, and transgender policies. Despite previously opposing Trump during the contentious 2016 GOP primary, Cruz has since become an ally of the former president.

During their heated debate Tuesday night, both candidates sought to portray each other as extreme. A notable exchange saw Allred accusing Cruz of being “a threat to democracy” and claiming that Cruz was “hiding in a supply closet” when the January 6, 2021, insurrection occurred, following Cruz’s objections to the elections in Arizona.

Current polls suggest Cruz holds about a four-point lead over Allred, although this margin has slightly decreased as Election Day nears.

Texas does not have party registration for voters, but recent turnout statistics show Republicans retain an advantage: In the 2022 gubernatorial primaries, nearly 2 million Republicans voted compared to just over 1 million Democrats. Even in the 2020 presidential primary—when Trump faced little serious opposition and numerous candidates pursued the Democratic nomination—Republicans and Democrats turned out to vote in nearly equal numbers.

Democrats have not held a statewide office in Texas for three decades. However, as Montana seems increasingly unlikely to be favorable territory, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has decided to invest millions to support Allred, who has already outspent Cruz.

This race is now classified as one of the most expensive Senate contests in the nation, according to OpenSecrets. Cruz’s campaign and related PACs have accumulated $90 million this election cycle, while Allred and his affiliated PAC have raised $76.3 million.

Florida

In Florida, Democrats are optimistic that two statewide referendums—one aimed at safeguarding abortion rights and the other to legalize recreational marijuana—will mobilize enough liberal voters to help flip a Senate seat in a state that is trending Republican.

The incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott is facing off against former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Mucarsel-Powell, who emigrated to the U.S. from Ecuador as a teenager, worked in non-profits before serving in the House from 2019 to 2021. If she wins the race, she would become the first Hispanic woman to serve Florida in the U.S. Senate.

Scott, who previously held the position of governor before being elected to the Senate in 2018, has significant name recognition across the state. Having been the former CEO of a large for-profit health care company, he has invested over $8 million of his own funds into his campaign, significantly outpacing Mucarsel-Powell in spending.

Scott’s campaign and related political action committees (PACs) have raised $41.4 million this election cycle, while Mucarsel-Powell has raised $27.2 million. With growing concerns about races in other states, national Democrats have recently invested heavily in the Florida contest.

Senator Scott has been a longtime supporter of Trump, endorsing him in 2016 during a time when many Republicans were hesitant. In the Senate, he has emerged as a key figure among the most conservative senators and even challenged Mitch McConnell for GOP leadership last year. As McConnell steps back, Scott is now seeking to replace him, competing against fellow Senators John Thune and John Cornyn, who are allies of McConnell.

The race for the Senate has been complicated by recent hurricanes, Helene and Milton, which have devastated some areas and highlighted the need for federal assistance for victims. Both candidates have launched advertisements addressing the disaster’s impact and recovery.

In Florida, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by over a million, as reported by the state secretary. Additionally, about 3.6 million voters remain unaffiliated. Although Scott has led Mucarsel-Powell in polls consistently, recent surveys suggest that the margin may be closing.

Nebraska

Initially, Nebraska was seen as a secure win for Republicans this election cycle. However, independent candidate Dan Osborn is making the race more competitive with his populist campaign approach, potentially threatening the two-term incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer.

Osborn, an industrial mechanic and union leader, played a significant role in the 2021 strike at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha. He has not disclosed whether he would affiliate with Republicans or Democrats if elected and has moved away from the state’s Democratic Party. Nonetheless, liberal outside organizations are backing his campaign and attacking Fischer.

Senator Fischer, a cattle rancher with eight years of experience in the state legislature before her Senate run in 2012, has secured her last two elections by large margins, winning by 16 and 19 points respectively. She is emphasizing her endorsement from Trump while criticizing Osborn for his lack of a clear presidential preference.

Currently, approximately 50% of registered voters in Nebraska are Republicans, while only 27% are Democrats, with another 22% unaffiliated. Outside spending from national political groups has increased recently, leading both candidates to boost their campaign expenditures in the final stretch. Osborn’s campaign has raised $4.9 million so far, while Fischer has brought in $7.8 million through her campaign committee and associated PACs, and a GOP super PAC has invested $2 million in ads targeting Osborn.

Political analysts still favor Fischer in this race, but both candidates have released internal polls showing themselves slightly ahead, indicating that the competition could be closer than anticipated.

Maryland

Maryland, a state that usually votes Democratic, was expected to fill the soon-to-be vacant Senate seat with another Democrat. However, the entry of former Republican Governor Larry Hogan has made the race with Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks much more competitive.

Hogan is trying to attract some Democratic voters by separating himself from Trump and promising to uphold abortion rights if he wins. He has been openly critical of Trump, asserting that Trump’s leadership has been detrimental to Republicans. Additionally, he has stated he would have supported Trump’s conviction following the January 6, 2021, event at the Capitol.

Hogan’s reputation for inconsistency within his party is noteworthy, as his father, Lawrence Hogan, was the only Republican on the House Judiciary Committee to vote for all three articles of impeachment against President Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal.

Alsobrooks is keen to highlight that Hogan would still align with Republican values in the Senate, potentially impacting which party leads and sets the Senate agenda, regardless of his specific votes. She has positioned herself as a champion of abortion rights and economic issues. If she wins, she would make history as the first Black senator from Maryland.

Polls indicate Alsobrooks holds a substantial lead. Over 52% of registered voters in Maryland identify as Democrats, while only 24% as Republicans, with another 24% being either unaffiliated or part of third parties.

Nevertheless, this contest has turned into one of the most expensive in the country, as both campaigns and external groups invest millions in support of their candidates.

Up to now, Alsobrooks’ campaign and its associated PAC have raised $32.6 million, according to financial disclosures. Conversely, Hogan’s campaign and its PAC have collected $22.2 million, but he is also receiving support from an independent PAC named Maryland’s Future, which has raised $27 million and spent nearly $11 million by September.

Longer longshots

There are several other races that are not currently on the radar of major national political organizations, which are focusing on more accessible targets. However, campaigns in states like North Dakota, New Jersey, Missouri, and Minnesota are optimistic about their chances to unseat their more favored opponents.

In New Jersey, the resignation of Senator Bob Menendez due to federal corruption charges has opened a seat in a state that has historically favored Democrats. U.S. Representative Andy Kim, D-N.J., won a competitive primary within his party and will face moderate candidate Curtis Bashaw, who emerged victorious against a Trump-endorsed opponent in the primary. Early polling suggests Kim is in a favorable position.

In Missouri, Senator Josh Hawley, a first-term Republican, is up against Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce, a Marine veteran who has previously run unsuccessfully for Senate in 2022. Internal polling from Kunce’s campaign indicates he is trailing Hawley by just 4 percentage points in a state that leans Republican, but independent polling shows a larger gap.

Katrina Christiansen, a Democrat and engineering professor, is vying for the seat against Republican Senator Kevin Cramer in North Dakota. Christiansen’s campaign claims to have raised more money than Cramer and has narrowed the polling gap significantly, according to their own poll. However, recent independent surveys suggest Cramer maintains a significant lead.

Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., is defending her seat in a state that has historically voted Democratic but where Republicans see an opportunity this election cycle. She’s up against Royce White, a former NBA player known for his controversial comments who lacks support from the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Current polling shows Klobuchar with an 8 percentage point lead over White.