The outcome of the upcoming fight between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul largely hinges on its duration.

Both fighters seem cognizant of this fact as they prepare for their eight-round heavyweight match set for Friday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Traditionally, the shorter the bout, the more it favors Tyson. At 58 years old, his endurance may pose a challenge.

Conversely, the longer the fight drags on, the more it benefits Paul, 27, as he could fatigue the former champion.

This led Paul to propose a $5 million incentive for Tyson if he could survive beyond the fourth round, a challenge that Tyson countered with a demand for $20 million. Should Tyson not make it past the fourth, Paul cheekily noted he would have to ink a tattoo that says, “I love Jake.” Although, it’s likely a more fitting tattoo would be “I fell for a really bad bet.”

What Happens If the Fight Ends Before the Fourth Round?

The initial rounds are particularly perilous for Tysons’ adversaries, as he tends to conclude fights swiftly.

Out of his 44 career knockouts, 22 happened in the first round. Seven occurred in the second round, while three in the third and two in the fourth. Notably, Michael Spinks was finished in just 91 seconds, and Marvis Frazier lasted only 30 seconds.

“He prefers not to take the long road,” Joe Cortez, who officiated Tyson’s last professional match against Kevin McBride, told YSL News Sports. While it’s true that Tyson is nearly two decades past that 2005 fight, it’s clear that Paul isn’t quite in the same class as Spinks or Frazier.

Additionally, recent training footage shows Tyson looking fit and determined, which could be critical given Tyson’s prediction that Paul will “run like a thief.” If he manages to corner Paul before the fourth round, Tyson might still possess the energy to land a decisive knockout.

“If Jake Paul can’t keep Mike Tyson at bay in the early rounds, it’s likely to be a quick night,” mentioned Ann Wolfe, a former champion boxer.

However, an early finish doesn’t guarantee a Tyson win. Paul has a potent right hand and has cautioned that he will unleash it if Tyson charges him. Teddy Atlas, who trained Tyson during his teenage years, speculated that Paul might throw a straight right simultaneously as Tyson attempts his signature left hook.

“Paul’s best punch is a straight right hand,” Atlas noted. “A well-timed straight right can overpower a left hook if they’re thrown concurrently.”

What Happens If the Fight Lasts Past the Fourth Round?

Tyson has achieved victory in 50 fights, but only nine exceeded six rounds. As boxing historian Mike Silver stated, “If a decent fighter pushed him past the fourth or fifth round, his effectiveness as a knockout puncher diminished.”

Tyson infamously ended his last pro fight by quitting on his stool after the sixth round, and Cortez noted that Tyson’s conditioning was an issue. Is it possible for Tyson to have better stamina now at 58 than at 38?

“I believe Mike will aim to finish (Paul) as swiftly as possible,” Cortez remarked. “He’ll recall how his last fight played out.”

This is precisely why Paul will aim to extend the fight into the later rounds. Wolfe wouldn’t find it surprising if that scenario unfolds.

“He’s improved his boxing skills far more than people realize,” she asserted. “Many underestimate him. Plus, he’s got the advantages of youth and a strong desire to win.”

A longer fight would not only frustrate Tyson but also test his endurance, which might expose him to Paul’s knockout capabilities.

It’s crucial to remember that Paul boasts seven knockouts in 11 matches and has knocked down each of the ten boxers he has faced.

Tyron Woodley, a former UFC champion, noted that Paul showed signs of fatigue during their second match. However, he added, “Even when he was tired and gasping for air, he could still clench his jaw and throw a powerful punch.”

Paul managed to knock out Woodley in the sixth round.

That said, facing Tyson in the ring is perilous at any moment. Out of his 44 knockouts, three occurred in the sixth round, two in the seventh, and one in the tenth.

“Mike Tyson might have a flashback,” Woodley reflected. “The longer he’s in the ring, the more likely he is to remember how to win.”