Tropical Storm Francine, which is on the verge of becoming Hurricane Francine, has been gradually gaining strength since its formation on Monday in the Gulf of Mexico. As of Tuesday morning, its winds are estimated to be around 65 mph. A key question remains: How strong will Francine become prior to making landfall?

The National Hurricane Center has indicated that steady to rapid intensification is anticipated as Francine nears Louisiana, with a landfall expected on Wednesday evening. The latest forecast suggests sustained winds of 90-95 mph near the storm’s center, categorizing it as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Due to the unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Francine may experience what meteorologists define as “rapid intensification,” which is when a storm’s wind speed increases by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.

Impact of Warm Water and Wind Shear

While warm waters are plentiful for intensification, strong winds in the upper atmosphere might hinder this process:

“The tropical cyclone is likely to be over very warm waters prior to making landfall; however, the presence of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely to increase,” the hurricane center stated in a forecast update on Tuesday morning. “This environmental condition will probably restrict Francine’s intensification.”

Wind shear disrupts tropical cyclones by breaking them apart, thus inhibiting their formation and strengthening.

Projected Wind Impact Areas

“Severe and dangerous hurricane-force winds are anticipated in parts of southern Louisiana on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued,” the hurricane center reported, with gusts potentially reaching up to 115 mph.

Residents in the affected areas should ensure all preparations for safety and property protection are finalized by tonight, as tropical storm conditions are expected to begin early Wednesday.

Potential Damage from Francine

Though Francine is forecasted to be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, the hurricane center advises communities in its projected path to prepare for impacts typical of a Category 2 storm. According to the center, very dangerous winds could lead to significant damage during a Category 2 event. This damage could include:

• Serious damage to roofs and siding on well-built frame homes.
• A large number of trees with shallow roots could be uprooted or snapped, obstructing numerous roads.
• Widespread power outages are expected, potentially lasting from several days to weeks.