Hurricane Milton’s landfall location will determine if Tampa Bay faces a massive flood or an unusual water retreat.

The peculiar “reverse” storm surge, which uncovers sand, silt, and debris that are usually submerged, is a particularly quirky outcome of hurricanes, especially in Tampa Bay, according to experts.

Similar occurrences happened in Florida during Hurricanes Irma and Ian, and there’s a possibility of it happening again if Milton strikes south of Tampa Bay, as indicated by WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Milton’s center tracking towards land south of Tampa Bay, but this could change as the storm approaches.

What is a reverse storm surge?

Typically, when a hurricane or tropical storm approaches, it pushes water towards the coast, leading to severe flooding in coastal and bay areas.

In contrast, reverse storm surge occurs during larger storms, explained AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok after the impact of Hurricane Ian in 2022. “The water can be pulled away when the wind blows from land to the ocean,” he stated. “The intensity of the wind plays a significant role.”

This results in exposed ground in some areas, especially near the coast, according to Pastelok.

This unusual occurrence can happen during any hurricane, whether it hits the eastern U.S. coast or the Gulf, as noted by the National Weather Service office in Tampa Bay.

What causes it?

Typically, storm surge impacts areas near and to the right of where a storm makes landfall, but a reduction in water levels can be seen to the left of that location, according to weather service meteorologist Ernie Jillson from 2022. For instance, Tampa Bay was impacted on the left side when Hurricane Ian struck and winds were blowing from the northeast.

The shape of the waterway influences this phenomenon, and because bays are often enclosed on three sides with land, they are particularly prone to being “emptied,” added Jillson. “Bays are akin to a bowl; that’s why they’re so vulnerable,” he told YSL News.

The severity of this effect can vary significantly based on the strength of the storm, according to Pastelok.

Describing the experience

When the reverse storm surge occurred in Florida during Hurricane Ian, one resident described the empty Ochlockonee Bay as “it was just like a bathtub letting the water out,” said Donna Bourgeois. “It just disappeared.”

On social media, Tammy Young shared her astonishment, saying, “The fact that all the water disappears from #tampabay before the storm comes is mind-blowing.”

In St. Marks, Florida, Kathleen Spehar reflected, “If the sea became a desert, what would that look like? That was the feeling being out there.” She described it as “beautiful blue skies, yet eerie.”

“It was somewhat unsettling that the storm had enough force to completely dry out the bay area,” she noted.