Water shortages pose a significant risk to the sustainability of hydropower and agriculture. A recent study in the Andes recommends sustainable irrigation and reforestation as effective solutions.
A recent study conducted in a remote area of the Peruvian Andes, where the Amazon River begins, provides key insights for hydropower managers and farming communities around the globe: working together on sustainable land management is crucial for ensuring the long-term stability of their operations and communities. Additionally, it creates chances for the revival of damaged ecosystems. Research from Stanford’s Natural Capital Project (NatCap), published in Communications — Earth & the Environment, presents an innovative high-resolution modeling method that combines hydropower activities with watershed dynamics and climate forecasts for the Huallaga River Basin, located upstream of the Chaglla Dam. This study illustrates how climate change will likely worsen water scarcity and identifies investments in upstream reforestation and sustainable irrigation as the most promising strategies to tackle these issues.
“This research is groundbreaking as it merges climate change, hydropower, and land management strategies into a comprehensive decision-making framework,” said Zhaowei Ding, a postdoctoral researcher at NatCap and the principal author of the study. “Previously, studies looked at either the links between hydropower and deforestation or hydropower and agriculture, but they didn’t connect these dots. Now, we can map water distribution in the basin and refine our management recommendations.”
Water shortages from climate change increase pressure
Even with significant social and environmental consequences, hydropower continues to be a critical source of low-carbon energy in many regions, particularly in Latin America and Asia. However, hydropower facilities have a minimum water flow requirement to function effectively. As climate change leads to decreased rainfall, the situation will become increasingly challenging. Less rainfall during the vital growing season will force farmers located upstream of hydropower plants to adopt irrigation methods to secure their livelihoods, which in turn will reduce the water availability downstream. Such shifts could intensify conflicts between the energy sector and agriculture.
Waldo Lavado, a co-author of the study and researcher at the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru, emphasized the vulnerability of water resources in the Peruvian Andean-Amazonian basin to land use changes and climate variations. “For the first time, this research scientifically documents potential outcomes of these changes — a necessary step in understanding the water-energy-food-ecosystem relationship in Peruvian basins influenced by human activity.”
The research team evaluated thousands of scenarios for land and water usage and found that there are no straightforward solutions for balancing the needs of water, energy, food, and ecosystems. Unregulated expansion of irrigation in this area could significantly disrupt the functioning of hydropower plants during dry seasons, which is when they are most needed for Peru’s energy supply. Concurrently, numerous small-scale farmers who have historically depended on rainfed agriculture for their food security and contributions to the national market are finding it increasingly challenging to adapt. Under these circumstances, irrigation offers a way for farmers to manage rising uncertainties.
Nature provides a means for damage control
However, the findings indicate that the adverse effects on both the energy and agricultural sectors could be mitigated by adopting nature-based strategies. By investing in reforestation and establishing protected areas, farmers can be incentivized to plant trees instead of crops, thereby increasing water availability downstream for hydropower, while also reducing the need for irrigation. Forests play a crucial role in soil retention, which helps decrease erosion and sedimentation that can hinder dam operations. The modeling identified low-yield farming areas where excessive irrigation does not lead to proportionately high crop production, indicating prime regions for such transitions. This strategy could be paired with improvements in irrigation efficiency, such as drip systems, in remaining agricultural areas to sustain or boost local food production.
“This information can help local stakeholders in their development decision-making,” said Andrea Baudoin Farah, an assistant professor at Colorado State University, former postdoctoral researcher at NatCap, and co-author of the paper. “Local farmers and communities recognize the importance of conserving the ecosystems that underpin their production, but they face significant challenges in an increasingly volatile environment.”
Baudoin Farah pointed out that communities in the Andes possess rich insights into the connections between ecosystems and food production, even though they are often situated in the most challenging terrains and receive little infrastructural support. “Climate change is compounding their already precarious situations. Research like this underscores the importance of directing funding to assist farmers in soil conservation and adopting sustainable production practices.”
Applying this approach to other areas
“This study illustrates that natural capital strategies, such as investing in ecosystems to secure water resources and minimize sedimentation, are vital at the intersection of food, energy, climate, and water,” stated Tong Wu, a senior scientist and associate director of the NatCap China Program, which collaborated on this work. “They serve as a central hub through which various solutions can connect. It’s not a singular answer — it represents the most effective solution.”
The authors hope this research encourages discussions between hydropower operators and stakeholders upstream throughout Latin America. With Asia housing the world’s largest dams, there are ongoing dialogues with key figures in the hydropower sector there about scaling up these nature-centered approaches to combat the forthcoming water crisis.
As climate change progresses, the significance of water will escalate, leading to heightened competition for this precious resource. “For hydropower operators to sustain their income, they will need to boost investments in natural resources upstream of their dams,” noted Rafael Schmitt, the senior author of the study and lead scientist at NatCap.
“Our modeling framework is a crucial advancement in defining eco-compensation methods — such as financially supporting farmers to refrain from farming or identifying where to establish protected zones — in a scientifically solid manner, despite the considerable uncertainties brought about by future climate changes,” Schmitt added.
The Natural Capital Project operates within the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, alongside the Woods Institute for the Environment, and the Stanford School of Humanities and Sciences. Co-authors from Stanford include Héctor Angarita, Jesse A. Goldstein, Natasha Batista, and Dave Fisher, all affiliated with NatCap. Additional contributors include Christian Montesinos Cáceres from the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru and Hua Zheng from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
This research received funding from the Moore Foundation.
