The Colorado River serves as a crucial water supply for the Western United States, supplying drinking water for households and irrigation for farms across seven states. However, this vital resource is increasingly threatened by climate change and drought conditions. A new computational tool may provide assistance in adapting to the unpredictable future ahead.
The Colorado River is a crucial water source in the Western United States, offering drinking water for residences and irrigation for agricultural land in seven states, yet this basin faces growing challenges from climate change and drought. A new computational tool created by a research group, led by scientists from Penn State, could aid the region in adjusting to a complex and uncertain future.
The tool, known as the Framework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC), assists decision-makers in exploring various potential futures and identifying significant scenario descriptions—these are interpretations of what critical future circumstances may entail—to help planners effectively deal with the uncertainties and consequences of climate change. The team shared their findings on September 19 in the journal Earth’s Future.
“One way states like Colorado are preparing for the future is by devising plans based on existing science and feedback from different stakeholders,” explained Antonia Hadjimichael, an assistant professor in the Department of Geosciences at Penn State and the study’s lead author. “This scenario planning process acknowledges that forecasting the future involves many uncertainties related to climate and water requirements. Hence, planners must consider various potential scenarios, such as high-warming or low-warming conditions.”
Hadjimichael noted that both scientists and global decision-makers frequently utilize scenarios to illustrate what future conditions might resemble, but this method often focuses on only a few possibilities while overlooking other options.
Common scenario planning strategies typically utilize a limited number of scenarios—for instance, assessing drought conditions under different warming levels—and may not adequately reflect the complexity of all interacting elements.
Conversely, scientists sometimes employ exploratory modeling that simulates thousands to millions of conceivable futures to identify the most significant ones. Nevertheless, this method can be challenging for decision-makers to implement, the scientists indicated.
“We aimed to create a balance,” Hadjimichael remarked. “We wanted to craft something that merges the two approaches—one that acknowledges the complexities while also simplifying it to be more practical and less overwhelming.”
The FRNSIC tool begins with exploratory modeling to examine numerous proposed plausible future conditions. It then uses this information to classify and pinpoint relevant and locally significant storylines, according to the scientists.
“Our method essentially evaluates plausible future impacts and indicates, ‘for this stakeholder, this storyline is the most important—and for another stakeholder, there is a different storyline they ought to consider,'” Hadjimichael explained. “It’s about introducing more variety and subtlety in the establishment of planning scenarios.”
In the Colorado River basin, decision-makers are confronted with a complicated array of challenges, such as providing sufficient water for increasing populations and agricultural needs while ensuring they do not exceed their allocated portion of the river’s flow, Hadjimichael stated.
“The challenge is that there isn’t a single criterion that satisfies everyone and their priorities,” she noted. “Perhaps one person operates a large farm while another manages a smaller one. They may also cultivate different crops. Utilizing a single parameter to develop scenarios that would appeal to everyone—or frustrate us all—can prove challenging.”
The storylines generated by FRNSIC could be beneficial for future applications in the Colorado River basin—such as understanding the impact of drought events as populations adapt and evolve.
“This enables policymakers to consider various circumstances and assess how different interventions might influence the basin within each storyline,” Hadjimichael said. “These drought scenarios can clarify potential consequences, which can in turn assist in negotiations or when soliciting input from stakeholders.”
Contributors to the study included Patrick Reed, a professor at Cornell University; Julianne Quinn, an assistant professor at the University of Virginia; and Chris Vernon, a geospatial scientist, along with Travis Thurber, a software engineer, from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, under the MultiSector Dynamics initiative within the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program.
