The tropical storm currently in the western Caribbean might not seem like a big deal yet, but history warns against underestimating it. The Gulf of Mexico can quickly transform systems like this from minor wind events into powerful storms under the right conditions.

In this instance, the water is already warm, which is expected to enhance the storm’s winds, potentially reaching 75 mph by Thursday morning.

The system is predicted to become Hurricane Helene by Wednesday, with winds possibly increasing to Category Three strength at 115 mph or more as it heads toward Florida’s Big Bend by Thursday, according to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

The storm is likely to strengthen significantly in the Gulf due to a phenomenon known as rapid intensification. This has happened in the past; most of the most severe hurricanes have undergone this rapid growth, as stated by Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, in discussions with YSL News.

Recent examples include Hurricane Michael, which impacted Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle in 2022, and Hurricane Ian, which hit Florida’s southwest coast in 2018.

The official storm forecast remains below estimations from some computer models. Experts in hurricane research suggest that if the storm forms a typical tropical cyclone structure before entering the southern Gulf of Mexico, we could see higher-than-expected winds and lower pressure.

While forecasting such swift transitions in storms has improved, correctly predicting them is still a challenge, described by meteorologist David Roth from the Weather Prediction Center as “the wild, wild west.”

What Does Rapid Intensification Mean?

This term refers to a phase when a storm’s wind speeds increase sharply. Technically, it’s defined as a rise of at least 35 mph within 24 hours, but storms can heighten more dramatically or continue to gain strength for longer times under favorable conditions.

Rapid intensification often occurs when a storm moves over warm waters. Sufficient moisture combined with warm temperatures supplies the energy hurricanes need to develop tall cloud formations, adding to their strength.

According to Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, the Gulf’s water temperatures are currently at a record high for this time of the year.

As the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, wind shear is anticipated to decrease, which lowers the chances of strong winds tearing apart the high cloud tops.

An earlier storm, Beryl, utilized the warm waters in the eastern Caribbean to become a Category 4 hurricane with winds reaching 130 mph, increasing by 95 mph in just a little over 42 hours, ranking among the most rapid intensifications ever recorded.

Why Is Rapid Intensification So Hazardous?

The surge in wind speeds during rapid intensification leads to two main issues, making evacuation planning and enforcement more complicated. Many have gone to bed during prior storms believing they were facing a weaker hurricane, only to wake up to a much stronger one.

An example is Hurricane Otis from last summer, which saw wind speeds increase by an astonishing 110 mph in just 24 hours, leaving residents of Acapulco, Mexico, stunned.

The combination of stronger winds and lower pressure is intrinsically more damaging, and the increased wind speeds also push more water forward in storm surge, a serious concern in the Gulf of Mexico where the continental shelf elevates the height of the surge as it reaches land.

The west coast of Florida, particularly Tampa Bay, is especially at risk for storm surge, as noted by Jamie Rohme, the deputy director of the hurricane center, on Monday.

Which Hurricanes Have Intensified Rapidly?

Out of the ten hurricanes with wind speeds of 150 mph or more that hit the United States over the past century, all but one experienced rapid intensification.

In 2022, there were two significant occurrences of rapidly intensifying winds, with speeds peaking at 155 mph as the storm approached Cayo Costa in Southwest Florida on September 28, 2022.

Hurricane Andrew, the destructive storm that hit parts of Southwestern Miami-Dade County in Florida in 1992, also saw a quick intensity increase. It escalated from a weak hurricane to winds of 175 mph within just 36 hours, with its central pressure dropping by 72 millibars as it neared the Bahamas. When it made landfall in Miami on August 24, wind speeds were still at 165 mph.

In 2021, Hurricane Ida exhibited a rapid increase in intensity as it approached Louisiana’s coastline. Its wind speeds surged from 85 mph to 150 mph in just 20 hours, marking it as one of the fifth-strongest hurricanes to ever strike the U.S. mainland.

Are meteorologists getting better at predicting rapid intensification?

Enhancements in data gathering through hurricane hunters and advancements in technology, such as dropsondes and drones used by the aircraft, have yielded more comprehensive data for the predictive models used in forecasting hurricanes.

A decade ago, the National Hurricane Center was not equipped to accurately forecast rapid intensification, but there has been notable progress since then.

“We had a good track record with Idalia,” said Center Director Michael Brennan in an interview with YSL News earlier this year.

However, as noted by Roth, Brennan, and others, accurately forecasting rapid intensification remains a complex task. Both Beryl and Otis caught forecasters off guard with how quickly they intensified.

Is climate change a factor?

Many scientists affirm that it is.

Tom Knutson, a senior scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, has previously expressed that while the long-term effects of rising temperatures on tropical cyclones remain uncertain, it is anticipated that rapid intensification will become more frequent in a warmer climate.

Some researchers argue that climate change is already apparent in the rapid intensification events witnessed in recent hurricanes.

In a recent study published by Princeton University researchers in February, it was concluded that rapid intensification instances are “already more dangerous than standard cyclones, and future climate change is expected to significantly increase the likelihood of (rapid intensification) near coastal areas.”

Dinah Voyles Pulver writes about climate change and environmental issues for YSL News. She has been covering hurricanes, tornadoes, and extreme weather for over 30 years. You can  follow her on Twitter @dinahvp.