New studies indicate that there are limitations to how fast we can increase the technology needed to store massive amounts of carbon dioxide beneath the Earth.
Research from Imperial College highlights the restrictions on rapidly expanding technology for storing gigatons of carbon dioxide underground.
Current global strategies designed to keep climate change under 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century depend on technologies that can extract CO2 from the atmosphere quicker than humans emit it. This targets a removal rate of between 1-30 gigatons each year by 2050.
However, prior estimates regarding the speed of deploying such technologies have been largely conjectural. Recent research led by scholars at Imperial College London suggests that existing forecasts may not be achievable at the growth rate currently anticipated.
The findings indicate that by 2050, it might be feasible to store up to 16 gigatons of CO2 underground annually. Yet, achieving this goal would necessitate a significant boost in storage capacity and expansion in the forthcoming decades, which isn’t expected given the current levels of investment, development, and deployment.
As the UK Government strives to establish the country as a leader in clean energy and enhance investment in carbon capture and storage, the research emphasizes the need to align ambitious programs with realistic timelines for safely storing CO2 underground.
The findings are published today in Nature Communications.
Setting Realistic Objectives
The research team from Imperial’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering constructed models to assess the rate at which carbon storage systems could be developed and implemented, taking into account factors such as geology availability, and technical and economic growth limitations.
While the results indicate that large-scale reductions in CO2 emission is achievable, they also imply that the pathway to this goal and the contributions from vital regions might deviate from current models, including those provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Yuting Zhang, the lead author from Imperial’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering, stated: “Many variables influence these projections, such as the speed of filling reservoirs and various geological, geographical, economic, technological, and political factors. More precise models, like those we have created, will aid in clarifying how uncertainties in storage capacity, differences in institutional capabilities across regions, and developmental constraints may influence the climate objectives set by policymakers.”
Co-author Dr. Samuel Krevor, also from Imperial’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering, noted: “Although the storage of between six to 16 gigatons of CO2 per year is technically feasible to address climate change, these high estimates are significantly more uncertain than lower ones due to the lack of concrete plans from governments or international agreements to back such a large-scale initiative.
“Nonetheless, achieving five gigatons of carbon storage is still a substantial step towards mitigating climate change. Our models equip us with the tools to refine current projections and establish realistic objectives for the development of carbon storage over the upcoming decades.”
Current Projections Are Unlikely to Be Realized
The researchers identified that the IPCC has included results from integrated assessment models (IAMs) — tools that merge various data to predict the potential impact of carbon storage strategies on climate and the economy — which often overstate the volume of CO2 that can be stored underground.
The analysis indicates that IPCC projections for Asian nations like China, Indonesia, and South Korea—where current development is limited—assumed unrealistic deployment rates, rendering existing projections potentially unreliable.
Co-author Professor Christopher Jackson, also from Imperial’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering, mentioned: “While IAMs are vital for assisting climate policymakers, some assumptions made about the capacity for substantial underground carbon storage seem overly optimistic.”
A Global Reference Point
The research team’s calculations suggest that a more feasible global benchmark is in the 5-6 gigatonnes of storage per year by 2050. This estimation aligns with how similar technologies have been scaled over time.
Their modeling approach incorporates growth trends observed in real-world data from various sectors, such as mining and renewable energy. By analyzing past growth in these industries and merging current storage data with a versatile framework for exploring different scenarios, the new approach offers a dependable method to produce practical long-term forecasts for underground CO2 storage, which could be very beneficial for policymakers.
Dr. Krevor added: “Our research is the first to use growth patterns from established industries to project CO2 storage capabilities. Existing forecasts often stem from speculative assumptions, but by relying on historical data and trends from other sectors, our model provides a more realistic and viable approach for estimating how swiftly carbon storage can be enhanced—facilitating more achievable targets.”
This study received funding from the Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC, part of UK Research and Innovation, UKRI) and the Royal Academy of Engineering.
