Who will emerge victorious in the presidential race of 2024?

This question is on the minds of many as various forecasters—pollsters, academics, and international betting agencies—share their insights with voters eager for clues about a potential future Kamala Harris or Donald Trump administration.

The outcome on November 5 remains uncertain as millions of Americans have already voted early, with many more preparing to make their choices for the country’s leadership over the next four years.

There’s a palpable anxiety across the nation, fueled by a deepening political divide.

According to a report by the American Psychological Association released this month, over 70% of American adults view the nation’s future, its economy, and politics as a significant source of stress.

“People shouldn’t just sit back and watch. This election is crucial, and it’s natural that people want to speculate on the outcome,” stated Imani Cherry, a media and public affairs professor at George Washington University.

“Many critical issues are weighing heavily on millions of minds,” Cherry added.

As the unprecedented clash between Harris and Trump approaches its conclusion, experts caution against making predictions.

“Polls should be seen as a momentary glimpse, not a prediction,” emphasized Republican pollster Robert Blizzard. “My role is to use polling to support my candidate or client, not to forecast results.”

This tight race has remained unaffected by major news events, such as President Joe Biden’s exit during summer, ongoing economic challenges, Harris’ historic candidacy, and two assassination attempts against Trump.

Experts interviewed by YSL News noted that any predictions regarding Trump or Harris claiming the presidency are likely flawed due to the influx of last-minute polling and partisan surveys designed to sway opinions, alongside betting analysis featuring less credible sources.

Additionally, there has been a noticeable absence of quality swing-state surveys that typically characterize the last stretch of a general election, leading some to suggest a reevaluation of reliance on polling in news coverage.

“People need to stop riding the poll rollercoaster and realize it’s being manipulated,” argued Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, who played a role in Barack Obama’s campaigns in 2008 and 2012.

“Polls and their creators are not fortune tellers; we simply can’t predict the future.” he added.

Who Will Win the Race?

The U.S. hasn’t witnessed a landslide victory in a presidential election since 1984 when incumbent President Ronald Reagan won 49 of 50 states against Democratic rival Walter Mondale.

Since then, elections have been closely contested, such as the 2000 and 2016 elections where the Democrat won the popular vote but did not secure enough Electoral College votes. This cycle includes a highly competitive media environment and a burgeoning array of pollsters, commentators, and even gamblers eager to provide reassurance to either camp and undecided voters.

One of the main sources is FiveThirtyEight, recognized since 2008 as a preferred resource for strategists, journalists, and the public during the race for the presidency. They employ complex statistical models to predict results and currently give Trump a slight edge, simulating his victory in 51 out of 100 scenarios.

However, critics warn against placing too much emphasis on these models, citing the varying accuracy ratings among polling firms involved.

FiveThirtyEight highlights that Vice President Kamala Harris once had a higher likelihood of winning just weeks ago, noting that this could change if “a few good polls” emerge for her.

The platform explains that when a candidate’s chance of winning is in the 50 percent range, it is essentially a “slightly better than a coin flip” for that candidate. Nate Silver, the site’s founder, wrote an op-ed in The New York Times asserting that “50-50 is the only responsible forecast” for the current election cycle.

Historical election outcomes show that models are not always accurate. For instance, in 2012, President Obama contradicted predictions by defeating Mitt Romney. Similarly, in 2016, predictions favored Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, yet Trump won that election. Many analysts also underestimated Trump’s support in 2020.

Experts are concerned that in the closing days of the 2024 campaign, polling models might be swayed by partisan efforts that inflate a candidate’s polling averages. This situation raises concerns, particularly in an environment filled with misinformation, as supporters might prematurely assume their candidate is assured victory based on polling data or early voting trends.

Recent reports by The New Republic detailed a surge of polls aligned with Trump released during the summer, seemingly intended to sway the election forecasts in his direction.

For Trump supporters, there is a fear that a potential loss could trigger reactions similar to the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Blizzard, a GOP pollster, mentioned that although he hasn’t conducted any surveys for the Trump campaign this year, he believes that there are firms on both sides of the political spectrum that only promote favorable polling data while ignoring negative results.

“If I don’t recognize the pollster, meaning they lack significant clients, a transparent track record, or focus solely on horse race polling, I’m less inclined to value their numbers,” he stated.

According to Blizzard, most campaign polling has wrapped up by this point in the race, and credible firms are now using their data to strategize advertising and allocate resources.

Experts are more concerned about the potential for misinformation than bad actors trying to sway narratives, as many voters don’t realize a slight lead in polling is actually a statistical tie, which could swing either way.

Cheery, a professor in media and public affairs, emphasized the vital role the media plays in this issue because polling stories attract audience interest easily.

She argued that more focus should be given to the policy differences between Harris and Trump, rather than solely projecting outcomes.

Cheery aims to guide her students on fostering grassroots discussions among voters about the crucial factors in the presidential race and encouraging engagement in the democratic process, moving away from coverage that focuses on who will win.

“I’m not suggesting polls don’t have a place in political discussions, but too often they become overly narrow,” she noted. “This is particularly true when considering the numerous factors that will influence voter decisions. This leads to situations where people claim, ‘All the polls indicated (Trump) would win, but he lost—it must have been rigged.'”

‘An iffy and dangerous business’

As of 2024, around 34 million Americans have voted early, with Democrats slightly ahead, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab, which tracks daily voter turnout.

Currently, approximately 41% of early votes have come from registered Democrats, compared to 35% from registered Republicans. However, those who have studied American voters’ preferences for years cautioned against overanalyzing early voting statistics.

Early voting data often comes from states where voters register by party, and it should also be noted that the baseline comparison is against the 2020 election, during which ballot access was notably expanded due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cathy J. Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, has been researching Black and Hispanic voters through GenForward, a youth initiative at the institution.

According to her, many Americans are unaware of the limitations or complexities related to polling data, including aspects like sample size and methodology.

Cohen noted that various factors, including demographic representation and the phrasing and sequence of survey questions, significantly influence the results of any survey.

“There’s a considerable difference between individuals responding to a survey and those who actually take the steps to vote, like putting on a coat, getting in a car, taking a bus, waiting in line, and ensuring they are registered,” Cohen explained.

Political analysts should prioritize observing trends over an election cycle rather than anticipating specific outcomes. However, as more traditional polling organizations seem to be withdrawing for 2024, other groups have emerged to fill this gap.

Many international betting platforms, including Polymarket, the largest cryptocurrency trading site, have been mentioned by Trump and his supporters, predicting a second, non-consecutive presidential term for him. A trader from France is said to have wagered a total of $28 million through four different accounts on the Republican nominee winning.

Joshua Barton, a spokesperson for BetOnline.ag, remarked that interest in betting on U.S. election outcomes—including who will win and voter turnout—has grown dramatically in the last ten years.

“The total amount wagered is expected to surpass that of the Super Bowl because many high-stakes bettors want to place their bets on the election outcome,” Barton stated in an interview.

Some individuals may not bet on anything else for another four years, he added, but they still want to engage in the excitement around the outcome.

It remains unclear how predictive these metrics—like stock market performance ahead of presidential elections—are in forecasting who might win between Trump and Harris. This uncertainty troubles Cohen and other academic professionals, who believe that polling should focus more on understanding American public sentiment rather than attempting to predict outcomes or generate profits.

“While polls can provide a glimpse into predictions, one should be cautious about relying heavily on them to gauge future events,” she cautioned.

“Predicting human behavior is a tricky and uncertain endeavor.”