After almost four years under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, it seems many Americans are ready for a change.

At least, that’s the impression they’re leaving.

Recent events show some serious issues: a nearly uncontrolled southern border, rampant spending, soaring prices for everyday goods, questionable actions by the executive branch, and concerns about the president’s competence.

It’s clear that the economy and immigration are top priorities for voters this election cycle. Despite Harris aiming to present herself as a candidate for change, her current position in the administration suggests otherwise.

All signs point to what could be an outstanding year for Republicans, and numerous recent polls support this view.

However, there’s a significant hurdle that could hinder GOP success in November.

Donald Trump.

Republicans are in a stronger position than they’ve been in a long time

A recent survey by Gallup shows that many key indicators leading up to the election favor the Republican Party.

According to the report, “Key factors include Republicans having more support among U.S. adults, the perception that the GOP can better handle critical issues than the Democrats, and overall dissatisfaction with the country’s current status under Democratic leadership.”

For the first time in ages, a greater number of U.S. adults identify with or lean towards the Republican Party (48%) compared to those who identify with or lean towards the Democratic Party (45%). Gallup notes this is the first time Republicans have held a clear advantage in party affiliation during a presidential election year’s third quarter.

The survey also indicates a Republican advantage (46%) in handling the nation’s major challenges, including the economy, inflation, and immigration, over Democrats (41%).

Additionally, a YouGov poll revealed the Republican Party is favored over the Democratic Party in managing immigration (44% to 32%) and the economy (43% to 31%), with a clear edge on inflation too (42% to 28%).

As if that weren’t enough, recent CNN polling indicates significant support for the Republican presidential nominee among working-class voters. For instance, Trump has a striking 31-point lead among vocational school graduates and trade workers.

He’s also gaining traction with union households and has improved his standing among voters of color without college degrees, climbing 17 points since 2020. In 2020, Biden had a 45-point lead in this demographic, which has now narrowed to a 28-point lead for Harris.

“Trump has an unprecedented level of working-class support compared to any GOP presidential candidate in decades,” noted CNN’s chief data reporter Harry Enten.

These figures could pose challenges for Harris in essential swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, which were pivotal for Trump’s victory in 2016.

Trump at the helm may jeopardize the GOP’s chances

All of this is promising for Republicans, and for Americans eager for new leadership to tackle pressing issues.

However, I have concerns that having Trump as the leading candidate might derail any hopes of a significant Republican wave. Recall his influence during the 2022 midterm elections, where many candidates he endorsed performed poorly.

While it’s true that Trump maintains a loyal following among his base, he also carries significant baggage that could alienate moderate Republicans and independent voters. His constant controversial remarks, ongoing legal challenges, and repeated claims regarding the 2020 elections may be off-putting to many.

Democrats may have exaggerated the risks that Trump poses to democracy, leading some voters to perceive the Democratic Party as a greater threat to the nation.

For example, a recent poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov among registered voters in Georgia revealed that 63% expressed significant concern over whether the U.S. would maintain a functioning democracy in the coming years.

Interestingly, in a state where Trump’s attempts to interfere with the 2020 election were most evident, 45% of voters believe that his policies would strengthen democracy, compared to 42% who favor the approach of Vice President Harris.

Many Americans are dissatisfied with the current trajectory of the country and seem more inclined to support Republican candidates than they have been in recent years.

Is Trump likely to make a misstep?