Predicting periods of heightened hurricane activity weeks ahead may become more accurate, according to a recent study published this month. This study highlights that the formation of hurricanes is twice as likely to occur two days after large atmospheric waves known as Kelvin waves pass through, compared to the days prior.
Recent research indicates that more precise predictions of increased hurricane activity weeks ahead may be achievable.
Conducted by the U.S. National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR), the study reveals that the occurrence of hurricanes doubles two days following the movement of significant atmospheric phenomena called Kelvin waves. This insight could assist forecasters and emergency response teams in anticipating bursts of hurricane activity days to weeks beforehand.
The research team employed an advanced computer modeling technique to isolate the effects of Kelvin waves, which can extend over 1,000 miles in the atmosphere and influence global weather systems.
“If weather forecasters can identify a Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean, they can reasonably predict an increase in hurricane formation in the Atlantic a few days later,” explained NSF NCAR scientist Rosimar Rios-Berrios, the main author of the study. “This capability would enhance communication with emergency managers and local authorities, enabling them to prepare for potential hurricane outbreaks and inform the public. Ultimately, this research could save lives.”
The findings were published in Monthly Weather Review.
Aquaplanet
For many years, scientists have observed that hurricanes often appear in clusters, followed by extended periods with little to no activity. Although several studies have indicated the connection between Kelvin waves and hurricane surges, it was challenging for scientists to isolate these factors and establish a definitive link. To address this, Rios-Berrios and her team utilized an innovative mix of computer modeling tools to demonstrate that Kelvin waves indeed enhance hurricane formation.
The team used a simulation referred to as aquaplanet on NSF NCAR’s Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art computer model capable of simultaneously capturing detailed weather events and broader atmospheric trends. The aquaplanet configuration simulates a theoretical world like Earth but lacks land and seasonal changes, effectively creating a controlled environment to separate the impacts of Kelvin waves on hurricane development.
The simulations were executed on the Cheyenne supercomputer housed at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center.
To explore the relationship between Kelvin waves and hurricanes, the research team recorded the interval between the formation of hurricanes and the peaks of Kelvin waves. They found a noteworthy increase in hurricane development two days later, confirming that hurricanes were more likely to form in this timeframe. Since the aquaplanet simulations accurately reflect hurricane formation processes, these results imply that Kelvin waves directly influence hurricane activity.
This new study highlights the significance of prior research co-authored by Rios-Berrios and NSF NCAR postdoc Quinton Lawton, which emphasizes enhancing weather forecast models for better simulation of Kelvin waves.
“I initiated this research on Kelvin waves in 2017. It was a substantial project taking years to evolve from concept to scientific outcomes, emphasizing the value of this research,” Rios-Berrios noted. “There remains a significant lack of understanding surrounding hurricane formation, and studies like this help pinpoint areas of focus for scientists to deepen their understanding of these formidable storms.”
