The beer, spirits, and wine industries were already anticipating a drop in sales for 2025 when the U.S. surgeon general called for warning labels on alcoholic products related to cancer risks.

Adding to these concerns is the ongoing trend of Dry January and its counterpart, Sober October, alongside a growing preference for lower-alcohol and non-alcoholic options, particularly among younger consumers.

Moderation is becoming increasingly popular. According to a new survey from NCSolutions, nearly half of Americans (49%) plan to reduce their drinking in 2025, an increase from 41% in 2024.

Leading this trend are Generation Z individuals, aged 18 to 28, with 65% of them expressing intentions to cut back on alcohol next year. Furthermore, about 39% of Gen Z stated they would adopt a sober lifestyle in 2025.

In 2023, around 34% of Americans surveyed indicated a desire to drink less. Alan Miles, the CEO of NCSolutions, interprets this as a possible reaction to pandemic stress, where many turned to alcohol excessively. However, he now sees this change as a cultural movement toward healthier living rather than a moral judgment on drinking.

Gen Z and millennials are also leaning towards alternatives like THC-infused beverages, marijuana, and edibles. Miles pointed out, “People are still looking for escapism, but they are choosing options other than alcohol.”

Alcohol Sales Decline in 2024

This newfound interest in moderation has influenced consumer spending. Total alcohol sales, which include beer, wine, spirits, seltzers, and ready-to-drink cocktails, experienced a slight decline for the first time in three years, decreasing less than 1% to $112.9 billion in 2024 from $113.6 billion in 2023, according to NIQ’s analysis of various retail outlets up until January 4, 2025.

Rachel Lawson, an attorney specializing in alcohol and hospitality law, remarked that the pandemic drove heightened drinking habits as people coped with lockdowns, and we are now witnessing a natural decline from that peak.

In 2024, 58% of Americans reported consuming beer, liquor, or wine, down from 67% in 2022 and 71% during the period of 1976-1978, as noted by Gallup.

However, there is a silver lining for the alcohol industry: a recent YSL News/Suffolk University poll indicated that only 18% of individuals planned to drink less following the surgeon general’s warning about alcohol-related cancer risks. Overall, 86% of surveyed individuals did not intend to reduce their alcohol intake due to this advisory.

Still, the sober curious movement is exerting influence. Kaleigh Theriault from NIQ noted, “Consumers are opting for moderation, leading to the rise of non-alcoholic products, and various suppliers are rolling out lower-alcohol options. This moderation trend appears to be sustained.”

Rise of Non-Alcoholic Beverages

As alcoholic beverage sales stabilize, the market for non-alcoholic beer and drinks expanded significantly, growing by 27% in 2024. Consumers spent $829.2 million on non-alcoholic products that year, as stated by NIQ.

The bulk of this spending on non-alcoholic options is directed toward non-alcoholic beer, with sales increasing by nearly 25% to $699.2 million.

Among the newer brands in the market is Bero, a non-alcoholic beer line co-founded by actor Tom Holland, who shared that this venture helped him navigate his first year of sobriety. “With Bero, there is so much potential, not just to craft a great beer but to produce a product that makes pursuing a fulfilling life easier.”

Tom Holland’s endorsement, highlighted in an interview with Men’s Health, could position Bero against leading non-alcoholic beers like Athletic, Budweiser, and Heineken.

Notably, around 28% of Gen Z and millennials reported having tried celebrity-endorsed alcohol-free beverages.

Popular Non-Alcoholic Choices

Prominent breweries are now joining the non-alcoholic beer trend, with Boston Beer launching its non-alcoholic Samuel Adams Just the Haze IPA in 2021, followed by a Gold Rush lager two years later. Sierra Nevada Brewing has also expanded its non-alcoholic line with additions like Trail Pass Hazy IPA and Brewveza.

Most non-alcoholic beers have around 0.5% alcohol, but there is a growing number of completely alcohol-free options such as Heineken 0.0 and Bud Zero, with Michelob Ultra Zero set to launch soon.

For those who enjoy hoppy flavors, there’s even hop-infused water like Hop Water by Allagash, a new fizzy drink infused with hops and orange peel.

The variety of non-alcoholic spirits, wines, champagnes, and mocktails is also increasing, with 37% of survey participants noting that they have seen more bars, restaurants, and stores offering these options. Lawson expressed her surprise when establishments fail to provide a non-alcoholic choice, urging them to consider incorporating one quickly.

Beer Trends: Modelo Especial Maintains Dominance

While total beer sales in the U.S. slightly fell in 2024, Modelo Especial maintained its popularity, overtaking Bud Light to become the top-selling beer based on revenue, with sales increasing about 7%. However, Bud Light remains the leading beer in terms of volume.

Overall beer sales at retail declined slightly to $56.8 billion in 2024, down from $57.2 billion in the previous year, according to NIQ.

Analysts suggest opportunities for growth with Modelo Especial and competition from other imports, indicated by Dave Williams from Bump Williams Consulting. “Constellation Brands, which owns Modelo and Corona, has another promising product in Pacifico, and there’s potential for growth in Central American imports like Famosa and Toña,” he noted.

Sales figures also include flavored malt beverages such as Twisted Tea, one of the beer subcategories contributing to overall industry sales stability.

category sales remain steady, according to Williams.

In addition to imports, popular categories include flavored beers and premium beers like Michelob Ultra, he noted.

A noteworthy trend in the beer market is the rise of lower-alcohol options, which aligns with the moderation movement. Dogfish Head is introducing a new 30 Minute Light IPA with an alcohol content of 4%. This beer joins their existing Slightly Mighty Low Calorie IPA, which has a 4% ABV and 95 calories.

Spirits: Ready-to-drink cocktails

In 2024, spirits sales saw a slight increase, reaching $33.3 billion, compared to $33.1 billion in 2023, as reported by NIQ.

While the spirits market has experienced stalled growth, ready-to-drink cocktails based on spirits, like High Noon, have maintained double-digit growth, providing a positive impact on overall trends, Williams stated.

Sales of prepared spirits-based cocktails soared by more than 18%, bringing in $3.2 billion in 2024, according to NIQ. Their presence in convenience stores has played a vital role in boosting sales, Williams explained.

Ready-to-drink cocktails, including flavored malt beverages categorized under beer, are expected to grow as they are quick to serve and come in diverse flavors, appealing particularly to younger consumers. “This is truly a favorite among them,” stated Emily Xu, senior vice president of e-commerce and marketing at RNDC, the second-largest alcohol distributor in the U.S.

There may also be growth derived from consumers opting for more affordable brands, moving away from pricier super-premium and premium spirits, Xu mentioned.

Additionally, as some spirits brands face stagnant sales, they might withdraw less popular products from the market. “Many brands are likely to revisit their portfolios,” she added.

The Wall Street Journal reported a surplus of bourbon, a situation that could escalate if the Trump administration implements tariffs on imports like Canadian whisky and tequila, along with beer produced in Mexico. This may result in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. bourbon and whiskeys.

Exciting developments are occurring in the spirits category this month. A new rule from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau took effect on January 19, establishing American Single Malt Whiskey as a new spirit category, the first addition in fifty years. The criteria include being made from 100% malted barley, akin to single malt Scotch.

American Single Malt Whiskey can be aged in various ways, as it does not require the use of virgin American white oak casks, thus allowing for a broader range of flavor profiles, noted Justin Aden, head blender at Stranahan’s Colorado Whiskey, who has been crafting American single malt for two decades.

The new regulation is expected to draw attention to this whiskey style. “We’re incredibly proud of this advancement  and we look forward to the increased curiosity and recognition it will inspire,” Aden shared with YSL News.

Wine sales see continued decline

According to NIQ, wine sales dropped by 2.5% to $22.8 billion from $23.4 billion in 2023.

“Wine is likely to keep experiencing declines, but it also holds significant opportunities, particularly for special occasions,” remarked Theriault from NIQ.

Similar to distillers, wine producers are broadening their offerings of lower-alcohol and non-alcoholic beverages, she added.

Wines in smaller 375 ml bottles, as well as spirits in smaller sizes, are witnessing “moderate growth” among certain consumers as this helps manage costs, Xu noted.

Nonetheless, within the alcoholic beverage sector, “there’s a correction occurring, to be frank,” Xu stated. “In general, the industry has seen a decline over the past few years. I expect continuous softness in the market.”

While some brands thrive, others may struggle, she explained. “The beverage alcohol market is expansive, and although consumer behavior remains, it is not consistently distributed,” Xu said.

Alcoholic beverages will “maintain their role as a social connector for many occasions,” Theriault remarked. “While some consumers may choose alternatives at times, a significant portion will still opt for alcoholic drinks for various events.”

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.