The forecasts for the 2024 hurricane season were alarming, especially with the early emergence of Category Five Hurricane Beryl which heightened fears that these predictions would come true. And then came a lull

Since August 12, there have been no named storms. Phil Klotzbach, a senior hurricane scientist at Colorado State University, noted that it’s the longest period without hurricane formation in this timeframe since 1968.

Scientists are now perplexed by this inactivity, given the earlier forecasts predicting an extremely active hurricane season. Initial predictions suggested as many as 25 named storms, yet only five have formed to date, with just three making it to hurricane status.

However, activity might soon pick up.

The National Hurricane Center’s map from Thursday indicated five areas in yellow where storms could potentially develop. Yet, none were forecasted to exceed a 30% chance of formation within the next week, and meteorologists anticipate that the absence of tropical storms and hurricanes could continue for a few more days.

Even though 2024 might not be extremely active as once feared, experts still believe the season will be busier than usual. The typical peak is around September 10, leaving 12 more weeks until the season closes on December 1.

What’s Next?

Dan Harnos, a meteorologist from the Climate Prediction Center, mentioned, “From our current view, everything seems to be on schedule.”

Conditions remain supportive with much of the Atlantic experiencing above-normal sea surface temperatures, Harnos explained. “There is a lot of warm water, which means things could shift quickly.”

“I don’t think anyone anticipated such a still spell in late August,” Harnos stated. “However, we have seen some activity, and I believe this will increase eventually. The question is how significant it will be.”

Although the current pause has generated discussion, the average date for the formation of the 5^th named storm is August 22, and Ernesto developed 10 days prior to that. The average date for the third hurricane is September 7.

A typical hurricane season features 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. Even if the period up to September 9 remains inactive, and the rest of the season sees average activity, the overall season would still resemble the upper range of what is considered normal, according to a report released by Klotzbach’s team at Colorado State.

While seasonal forecasts provide a broader picture of hurricane activity, predicting the timing within that season is still elusive, noted Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanic Meteorological Laboratory.

Hazelton stated, “We won’t know for a few weeks if this situation is merely a lull or a longer break that may lead to lower activity than anticipated. Given that water temperatures are well above normal, we likely just need to wait for the conditions to align.”

“Perhaps in three or four weeks, the conditions might converge perfectly,” he speculated. “It may lead to a later peak than we originally thought, but still a significant one. The specifics remain uncertain.”

What Occurred During Hurricane Season in August?

Craig Setzer, chief meteorologist at Royal Caribbean Group, explained that the high activity seen in a hurricane season can’t be traced to just one individual factor. “It’s usually due to a combination of elements that work together to create an unusual weather pattern.”

The seasonal outlooks predicted a combination of key factors—record warm ocean temperatures and a vigorous monsoon season—that suggested this year might mirror the 27 named tropical systems of 2005 or even the 30 from 2020.

Despite the ocean temperatures still being extremely warm or near-record levels at the surface and upper layers, meteorologists have observed other changes this week.

Nevertheless, alterations in the monsoon pattern, dry air present, Saharan dust, and elevated temperatures in the upper atmosphere have altered the overall conditions, according to Setzer.

These various factors will be examined as scientists analyze the season, according to Hazelton.

Warmer Upper Atmosphere Is Hindering Storm Development

After the emergence of Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 storm, there was immediate concern that this would signal an incredibly severe season, Setzer remarked. However, the atmosphere started to warm significantly at higher altitudes.

For tropical storms to develop, a mixture of warm air at the surface and cooler air above is necessary to create the instability needed for cloud formation. This summer, the warming air higher up has created a more stable environment, which Setzer notes has hindered storm development.

The conditions necessary for thunderstorms to develop have not been present this year.

This year, the upper-level temperatures have been warmer than any previously recorded year, which may indicate that ongoing warming tied to El Niño, or human-induced climate change over decades, could lead to more stability issues in the future, according to Colorado State University.

West African Monsoon

The West African monsoon trough typically triggers hurricane activity in August. Waves from the monsoon move off the west coast of Africa and can often develop into storms as they travel across the Atlantic. However, this year these waves have moved off the continent at higher latitudes and into drier air coming from Europe, which has slowed storm development.

According to Hazelton, “The African monsoon has been exceptionally strong, and these waves are emerging from such a northern position that they are almost too far north to develop.”

The analysis from Colorado State indicates that “the trough has shifted so far north in 2024 that easterly waves are forming over the cold waters of the northeastern Atlantic, west of Mauritania.” The highly warm ocean temperatures in the main area for storm development in the Atlantic, combined with cooler sea surface temperatures near the equator, may have contributed to pushing the monsoon waves farther north.

Saharan Dust

More Saharan dust than expected has been transported off Africa and across the Atlantic due to trade winds. This dust, consisting of sand and minerals, often suppresses storms that rely on moisture to develop.

Harnos noted that scientists are still working on effectively forecasting the timing of these dust plumes.

Is it still possible to have an active hurricane season?

Yes, there is still potential. However, meteorologists caution that it may not be as active as initially forecast. Despite the early arrival of Hurricane Beryl and the persistently high water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, experts are not dismissing the possibilities for activity in 2024.

As fall approaches and the air cools, two things are expected to happen. The Atlantic will remain “extremely warm,” which can enhance instability that leads to storm formation, while cooler temperatures are likely to encourage the monsoon waves to shift southward into a more favorable environment offshore.

Additionally, conditions are predicted to move towards La Niña, which typically results in cooler winds along the equator west of South America, while reducing wind shear in the Atlantic, creating more favorable conditions for storms.

Historically, every hurricane season that has had a storm in the tropical Atlantic before August 1 has ended up being above normal, according to data from Colorado State.

Dinah Voyles Pulver reports on climate change and environmental issues for YSL News. With over 30 years of experience, she covers hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe weather. Reach out to her  on Twitter @dinahvp.