In a weeklong effort to overshadow the Democratic National Convention, former President Donald Trump visited Michigan on Tuesday to criticize Vice President Kamala Harris for being lenient on crime.

But wait a moment.

Your first reaction might be, “Why would a convicted felon like Trump target a former prosecutor like Harris regarding crime?”

The answer lies in Trump’s limited use of statistics and a nationwide sentiment that often exaggerates crime as a critical issue. Therefore, let’s lay out some clear facts:

Crime rates in America have been decreasing since the early 1990s. However, there was a notable spike, particularly in murders, during 2020, coinciding with Trump’s final year in office amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. After Trump left office, crime rates started to decline again.

This is beneficial for the country, but it undermines Trump’s continuous overdramatic assertions that America has turned into a dystopia, claiming the only solution is his return to power for peace and prosperity.

That’s false. Here’s why.

Trump cherry-picks data from a complex crime narrative

During his speech, Trump asserted that Harris oversaw a “43% increase in violent crime” while serving as vice president.

His campaign later clarified that he was referencing a Bureau of Justice Statistics report showing a 42% rise in nonfatal violent crime in 2022. This September report, nearly a year old, also pointed out that this specific crime rate had just reached “a 30-year low” during President Joe Biden’s first year in office.

Not surprisingly, Trump omitted that information during his address.

In the U.S., crime statistics are compiled in two primary ways: the FBI gathers reports from local law enforcement, while the Bureau of Justice Statistics carries out annual surveys involving a nationally representative group of about 240,000 individuals.

This week, Trump heavily relied on the second method. Why? Because the first method, managed by the FBI, contradicts his claims about America being trapped in a long-term crime wave.

The FBI’s data shows a decline in crime rates for 2022. The bureau’s report for 2023 is set to be released this October.

Naturally, Trump attacks the FBI for reporting accurate crime data

If you’re Trump and the data from a federal agency counters your assertions, what’s your move? Attack the agency, of course.

Trump has frequently dismissed the FBI’s crime data as “fake numbers,” criticizing changes made in 2021 regarding how these reports are compiled. This alteration was planned well in advance but occurred during the pandemic, causing some law enforcement agencies to hesitate in adopting the new reporting methods immediately.

Ames Grawert, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center For Justice, explained to me that the FBI faced “a data hiccup in 2021,” but rectified it by collecting data under both the old and new systems for 2022 and 2023.

According to Grawert, the murder rate serves as a reliable metric in this context since, unlike many other crimes, “murder is almost always reported.” He added that “murder is one of the offenses experiencing the fastest decline nationwide.”

“We have strong evidence to believe that violent crime is significantly decreasing in 2023 and 2024, which counteracts much, if not all, of the uptick in violence we witnessed in 2020,” Grawert stated. “President Trump’s comments (in Michigan Tuesday) do not weaken that conclusion at all.”

The reality is that crime data is reported more slowly than political claims

Facts won’t deter Trump from spinning a terrifying narrative. On Tuesday he implied that the average American, just out to grab a loaf of bread, is at risk of robbery, assault, or even worse.

Do you currently have a loaf of bread in your home? If so, did you endure a dangerous quest to get it?

Trump is capitalizing on a common American belief that the national crime rate is far worse than it actually is, despite the fact that most people don’t see crime as an immediate threat in their local areas.

According to John Gramlich, an associate director at Pew Research Center, this long-held belief tends to be stronger among Republicans.

However, there has been a noticeable shift towards bipartisan concern over crime, even as statistics indicate that crime rates are decreasing.

“Typically, Republicans express more worry about crime compared to Democrats,” explained Gramlich. “What’s noteworthy is that both parties have intensified their concerns since Biden took office.”

A possible reason for this could be the delayed availability of crime data. With politics constantly evolving, Gramlich noted that a temporary absence of data might lead to “misconceptions filling the gap.”

“Elections represent a dynamic dialogue about current events,” he stated, adding that the time it takes for data to be released can be filled with misinformation or anxiety, among other factors.

Is it safe to buy groceries?

This is why Trump visited Michigan recently, asserting that Harris “will bring crime, chaos, destruction, and death” if she becomes president.

Until last month, he seemed to have a strong lead in the race, but that changed when Biden ended his campaign and backed Harris.

Now, with Harris gaining momentum, Trump has been countering by predicting dire consequences for America. The former president, who once said “only I can fix it,” is now testing out the idea of “only I can save America.”

While crime rates rose during his presidency in 2020, he does not attribute blame to himself for that occurrence. It’s unlikely he would take responsibility for any issues.

Currently, Trump is attempting to link one piece of data to Harris as she gains ground in the presidential campaign. Consider this and then ask yourself: Do you personally feel safe while grocery shopping in your neighborhood? If so, it’s worth noting that many people across the country might share that sentiment.

Follow Chris Brennan, YSL News elections columnist, on X, previously known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan