Will we experience a white Christmas? This question captures attention annually, but the likelihood of having snow during the holiday season is diminishing as global temperatures rise due to human-induced climate change, according to recent research and reports.

“As the climate warms, we can expect that in many regions, more winter precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow,” stated a 2021 report from Climate Central, a nonprofit organization focused on science and communication. “Climate change poses a risk to various aspects of the holiday season, including Christmas tree growth, winter recreation, and the comfort of warm beverages, as well as to Arctic wildlife.”

Furthermore, the effects extend beyond holiday customs: decreased snowfall and snow cover can impact water resources, transportation, travel, and recreation for millions, as noted by the Environmental Protection Agency.

Declining snow levels

Research indicates that as the planet heats up, overall snowfall is on the decline. From 1972 to 2020, the average snow-covered area in North America shrank by approximately 1,870 square miles annually—an area comparable to Delaware, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab.

In the United States, climate change is already influencing snowfall amounts across the nation. There have been notable declines in critical measurements of snow, including snowfall totals, snow cover, and snowpack.

Winter is heating up the fastest

“Winter temperatures are rising faster than in other seasons across most of the United States, especially east of the Mississippi River,” said Elizabeth Burakowski, a research assistant professor of earth sciences at the University of New Hampshire, in an interview with the American Association for the Advancement of Science earlier this year.

“Regions like New England and the Upper Midwest are experiencing significant winter warming. Cities such as Burlington, Vermont; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Concord, New Hampshire, have seen some of the highest rates of winter warming,” she added.

“Regarding snowfall, data shows that the balance of precipitation falling as snow versus rain has changed over time. Warmer temperatures will likely lead to more winter precipitation occurring as rain than as snow.”

Currently, only about a third of the contiguous United States has snow on the ground on Christmas Day, and this percentage has been steadily declining in recent years, according to FoxWeather.

The American Christmas tradition

“Average winter temperatures have risen more sharply compared to temperatures in other seasons, especially in the Northeast, where the image of the American Christmas originated and evolved in the 19th century,” stated Dagomar Degroot, an environmental history professor at Georgetown University, in comments to YSL News. He explained that extremely cold weather was more common during the mid-19th century, coinciding with the end of the Little Ice Age.

“The concept of a ‘white Christmas’ in American culture may have been shaped by the snowfall people experienced in the 19th century or could have emerged from a uniquely harsh winter,” Degroot noted.

Not all areas are experiencing change

However, Degroot pointed out that the overall average winter snow cover hasn’t decreased as much as one might expect since the 19th century. “In fact, some regions, such as the Great Lakes area, seem to have more snowfall now than they did before.”

He mentioned that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that even if the world warms by an average of 2.7 degrees compared to late 19th-century average temperatures, global snowfall may only decrease by about 5%.

“Several factors contribute to this. One is that a warmer atmosphere can retain more water vapor, often resulting in increased precipitation,” Degroot explained to YSL News. “In regions where winter temperatures remain below freezing, there may actually be more snowfall even as winter temperatures climb.”

Changes in NOAA’s white Christmas projections

It’s expected that there will be subtle changes between the 1981-2010 white Christmas map and the 1991-2020 version (shown below) that align with the long-term warming trends, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

More areas have seen a decrease in the likelihood of experiencing a white Christmas than those that have reported an increase. The most noticeable change is the growth of the dark gray regions, indicating less than a 10% chance of a white Christmas. This area has shifted significantly northward in the southern U.S. and has expanded along the ocean-facing mountain slopes on the West Coast.

What does a white Christmas mean?

For the National Weather Service, a white Christmas doesn’t necessarily require snowfall on December 25; it simply means there should be at least one inch of snow on the ground. A small trace of snow won’t be enough. Based on 21 years of data collected by NOAA, approximately 38% of the contiguous United States typically has at least an inch of snow on Christmas Day.

Since 2003, the percentage of snowy Christmases has fluctuated significantly, with only 17.6% last year contrasted against a high of 63% in 2009, as reported by Weather.com.

Trends in snowfall

◾ Overall snowfall has declined in numerous areas of the U.S. since comprehensive records began in 1930, with 57% of observation stations reporting a decrease, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. On average, snowfall has dropped by about 0.19% annually across these stations.

◾ Between 1972 and 2013, the duration of the snow cover season in the U.S. decreased by nearly two weeks on average, as reported by NOAA.

◾ From 1982 to 2021, roughly 86% of the locations where snowpack was tracked saw a reduction in the snowpack season length, with an average drop of about 18 days across all monitoring sites, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.