The number of COVID-19 cases is decreasing across the nation following a peak in early August, as indicated by surveillance data.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the rate of positive COVID-19 tests fell from 17.8% the week of Aug. 10 to 14.9% the week of Sept. 7. Walgreens’s national tracking of respiratory diseases has shown a similar pattern.

Emily Smith, an expert in infectious diseases and epidemiology at GW Milken Institute of Public Health, noted that major travel and gatherings in the summer often lead to increased COVID-19 cases.

However, she remarked that this summer’s surge “was particularly significant.”

“It’s challenging to make year-over-year comparisons because our methods of tracking cases have changed,” said Smith, who is also an associate global health professor. “Yet both the reported cases and wastewater data suggest this was likely one of the largest surges we’ve encountered.”

Despite the current drop in COVID-19 cases, wastewater monitoring indicates that the levels of the virus in sewage systems remain high across the country, according to data from WastewaterSCAN, a network overseen by Stanford and Emory University that tracks signs of diseases in wastewater.

Amanda Bidwell, a member of the WastewaterSCAN team, stated, “SARS-CoV-2 has been found in 99.8% of the samples collected over the last 21 days. Right now, the overall concentration of the virus in wastewater is slightly higher compared to the same time last year.”

Smith further observed that this summer’s COVID-19 wave peaked later than last year’s. As immunity from previous infections generally lasts around three months, this shift could potentially lead to an increase in cases later in the winter season. She anticipates a rise in infections around December, contingent on vaccination rates and the variants in circulation.

This timing allows Americans to prepare for the upcoming respiratory virus season by ordering free tests from COVIDtests.gov, which will be available by the end of the month, and by receiving the updated vaccine. The new mRNA vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna target the KP.2 variant, while Novavax’s protein-based vaccine focuses on the JN.1 lineage.

The JN lineage has nearly vanished, now making up 0.2% or less of national cases. According to CDC data from Wednesday, the KP.3.1.1 variant is the most prevalent strain, comprising approximately 57% of cases. Public health officials are also monitoring a newly identified XEC variant, which is a hybrid of KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 variants and is increasingly detected in Europe.

“We’re seeing cases in the U.S. that are rising at a similar pace as the KP.3 variants,” Smith reported. “That could be the next virus variant to watch.”

Health officials believe that existing COVID-19 treatments, including the antiviral Paxlovid, alongside the updated vaccine, will continue to offer protection against new variants.

It’s too early to determine the number of Americans who have received their vaccinations since the new vaccine was authorized by the FDA in August. However, a survey released on Wednesday by the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases indicates that less than one-third of Americans plan to “definitely get” the updated vaccine this year.

If the survey results come to fruition, the uptake would be a bit better than last year, where only 22.5% of adults and 14% of children got the 2023-2024 updated COVID-19 vaccine, as reported by the American Medical Association.

The new survey also revealed that approximately 45% of Americans will not seek vaccination, and 16% remain uncertain. Just half of those at an elevated risk for COVID-related complications express intentions to get the updated vaccine.

The main reasons for reluctance to get vaccinated include fears of side effects and a general lack of trust in vaccines.

“There’s significant work ahead for public health officials to make vaccination more accessible and to help people understand its benefits for their health and well-being,” Smith emphasized.