For many individuals currently imprisoned in federal facilities across the nation, Donald Trump’s recent election as president signifies more than just a political change; it represents a potential opportunity for freedom.

Hundreds have been incarcerated over the past four years due to their involvement in the violent uprising at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. Now, with the alleged instigator of that uprising preparing to resume his presidential role, many violent rioters are hoping for Trump’s promised pardons, which he has described as coming from “a day of love.”

Trump has often labeled the jailed rioters as political prisoners who have been treated unjustly. Although he has suggested some ambiguous conditions could affect his choices for pardons—informing a gathering of Black journalists this past summer that he would “absolutely” release rioters if they were “innocent”—the likelihood remains that he could choose to pardon all those imprisoned for the January 6 events on his first day back in office.

This action, or even a more selective set of pardons, would electrify the far-right landscape in America, encompassing white supremacist factions, armed militia groups, and conspiracy theorists associated with movements like QAnon, experts told YSL News.

Observers of extremist organizations are closely monitoring the extent of Trump’s clemency efforts regarding January 6. Even a few pardons would signal to the far-right that their criminal actions on that day were validated, experts explained. A sweeping presidential pardon, on the other hand, would deliver a strong endorsement and a sense of redemption to the individuals and groups involved in the assault on democracy, according to Joan Donovan, founder of The Critical Internet Studies Institute, who has been tracking extremist responses to Trump’s election.

“This could signify a very dangerous situation—not just for the U.S. but perhaps even leading to a civil conflict,” Donovan stated. “If Trump decides to pardon some of the more serious offenders from January 6, it sends a clear indication that he is creating a private army.”

If Trump pardons key leaders from extremist groups involved in the insurrection, who are currently serving lengthy sentences, it would revitalize these organizations that have faced significant challenges due to legal actions targeting domestic violent extremists, Donovan added.

“A decision to pardon individuals aligned with those groups would likely lead to a spike in recruitment efforts,” she noted. “Additionally, we might witness a rise in factions rebranding themselves as right-wing movements.”

Can Trump Grant Pardons to January 6 Rioters?

Trump possesses broad powers concerning pardons for the January 6 rioters, explained Jeffrey Crouch, a law professor at American University and an authority on the pardon process.

“Clemency is a power guaranteed by the Constitution, and the president can exercise it at will,” Crouch remarked.

While Trump can only pardon federal offenses—not those charged by state authorities—this will cover anyone prosecuted by the Department of Justice for their actions on January 6.

Currently, 663 individuals have been convicted and imprisoned for their roles in the insurrection, according to Luke Baumgartner, a researcher at George Washington University’s Program on Extremism. As of now, 200 individuals remain in prison on charges related to January 6, not counting those who have been sentenced but have yet to report to incarceration.

Crouch noted that Trump might consult with the DOJ’s Pardon Attorney’s Office; however, he is not obligated to do so. On his first day back in office, Crouch elaborated, Trump has the option to issue extensive pardons to anyone charged in connection with the insurrection.

Although a presidential pardon would not erase the criminal records of those affected, it would secure their release—essentially instantaneous. Importantly, for leaders and members of armed militia groups, a presidential pardon is the only avenue through which a federally convicted felon can regain the right to possess firearms.

Awaiting News on Pardons

Among those still incarcerated for crimes related to January 6 are individuals serving short sentences for minor offenses, alongside the leaders of extremist factions like the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, who are facing 22 and 18 years in prison respectively for their involvement in a seditious conspiracy.

The Trump campaign has not provided specific information about whom the future president intends to pardon.

When asked for more information on two separate occasions, a Trump spokesperson informed YSL News that the president-elect “will evaluate pardon decisions on a case-by-case basis.”

Social media communications from accounts associated with imprisoned insurrectionists offer some insight into how those still in custody perceive the pardon procedure. For instance, the official Telegram channel of the Proud Boys has been motivating its members to avoid any actions that could jeopardize the chances for their incarcerated comrades:

“While your intentions may seem noble, and you feel that without your efforts DJT won’t make good on his promise to release the hostages, it could very well have the opposite effect,” reads a post from November 7.

Attorneys for Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, who is currently serving an 18-year sentence, expressed cautious optimism regarding the potential for a presidential pardon.

“Stewart was found guilty for things he said, and although he said many things, none breached the law,” stated Rhodes’ lawyer Ed Tarpley. “I believe Stewart could be prioritized for a pardon; however, we’re uncertain about how this will unfold.”

Moreover, Rhodes’ estranged family, who have accused him of years of psychological and physical abuse, are anxious about the possibility of his return and the potential for him to seek retribution against them in their small Montana community.

“I’ve been hiding from everyone. It’s just overwhelming,” Rhodes’ ex-wife Tasha Adams conveyed in a text message to YSL News. “I feel at a loss for how to proceed.”

Potential Pardons Could Revitalize Far-Right Movement

In recent years, America’s extreme far-right groups have been relatively quiet.

During the first term of Trump’s presidency, a burgeoning white supremacist movement known as the “Alt Right” emerged, gaining notoriety in 2017 and 2018 through events like the violent “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, VA, which featured clashes between far-right factions and leftist counter-protesters.

The COVID pandemic brought about a merging of far-right elements, including armed militias, conspiracy theorists, and white supremacists, who gathered at protests against government restrictions and vaccines across the nation.

The apex of this extreme far-right movement occurred on January 6, when tens of thousands of individuals, including armed militias, white supremacists, Christian nationalists, and conspiracy theorists, stormed the U.S. Capitol in a bid to prevent Congress from certifying the 2020 election results.

While conservative leaders and pundits have since downplayed the Capitol riot, branding it as a peaceful protest despite over 150 police officers being attacked, the Justice Department and FBI have pursued and charged more than 1,200 individuals involved in the riot. Prosecutions continued right up until the recent election.

The result of these prosecutions, coupled with a Democratic administration’s goal to confront far-right extremism, has led to the fragmentation of once-popular groups such as the Proud Boys. The Oath Keepers, once boasting tens of thousands of members, many of whom were active or former military and law enforcement, have also faded into relative obscurity due to the incarceration of their leaders.

Despite the decline of these prominent far-right entities, the underlying sentiment that fueled their rise remains intact.

Throughout the Biden era, American far-right extremists have sought to redefine themselves, rallying around newer cultural conflicts like those involving trans rights, all-ages drag performances, and the exclusion of LGBTQ+ topics from educational content.

While the arrests following January 6 have dissuaded public displays and protests from far-right extremists, the possibility of presidential pardons could have the reverse effect, according to Katherine Keneally, head of threat analysis and prevention at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

“It certainly has the potential to alleviate concerns about joining these groups, and those pardons will also attract significant public attention,” Keneally explained. “This visibility, along with media coverage, could influence recruitment efforts.”

Rachel Carroll Rivas, who serves as the deputy director of research, reporting, and analysis at the Southern Poverty Law Center’s Intelligence Project, pointed out that her organization has tracked extreme right and anti-government groups for decades.

According to Carroll-Rivas, when Trump began his presidency in 2016, he had backing from the far-right factions of American politics, but he did not explicitly endorse that support. In recent months, however, Trump has increasingly aligned himself with his most extreme supporters, which include QAnon conspiracy theorists and Christian nationalists. A potential pardon for the January 6 rioters would clearly communicate his acceptance of these groups, she noted.

“This sends a message that such actions are permissible and that he is open to these views as part of his coalition,” Carroll-Rivas explained. “While Trump may not echo every sentiment of these groups—he often shifts his stance—their presence and importance in his coalition is unmistakable.”

Carroll-Rivas also mentioned that during political campaigns, candidates frequently make various promises. There is a chance that Trump may reevaluate his intention to pardon the January 6 rioters or only provide clemency to a select few who did not engage in violence.

However, if Trump follows through on his promise, he will be sending a strong signal about his political direction, she added.

“A pardon conveys that this is more than just a campaign ploy; it reflects his identity and vision for governance,” she said.