Is anyone shocked that our political climate is growing more contentious?

A fresh analysis from YSL News covering all 3,113 U.S. counties reveals a significant shift since 2012, with state partisan lines becoming more defined and clear, leaving only a few states uncertain about the upcoming Nov. 5 presidential election results.

This solidification of political divides has led to notable outcomes, including single-party dominance in the governorship and the state legislature in 40 out of the 50 states. As a result, there are starkly differing laws across the nation−even among nearby states−regarding abortion rights, transgender healthcare, pandemic responses, and various other contentious topics.

“Living in such a polarized time, I’m grateful to be in a solidly blue area,” shared Jane Crosson, a 67-year-old retired pediatric cardiologist and Democrat. Upon moving from Baltimore to Durham, North Carolina, she said, “we made this choice knowing we’d be surrounded by like-minded people. I must admit, we did choose to stay within our comfort zone, if you will.”

Crosson participated in a national YSL News/Suffolk University poll examining perspectives on the growing geographical division in U.S. politics. We administered similar polls in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, trying to gauge voters’ thoughts on having differing political views within their communities.

“Over the past 16 years, there has been a noticeable increase in the uniformity within counties,” remarked Ryan Enos, a political scientist from Harvard University focused on the confluence of politics, psychology, and geography. This trend has stemmed from both migration and changing party loyalty among certain voters, alongside a shifting electorate as younger individuals and immigrants become voters.

Views and actions

The poll revealed a balancing act.

A majority of Americans−55%−indicated that living in a community with shared political views is important to them. In fact, 7% acknowledged they had relocated to a community to be near like-minded neighbors.

Yet an even larger majority, 60%, expressed that it was very or somewhat crucial for them to reside in a community that embraces diversity, including differences in political opinions. Over 12% reported they had moved to a community seeking more diversity.

There was a partisan gap in those views.

Republicans were more inclined than Democrats to find it very important to belong to a politically homogenous community, with 24% versus 18%. Conversely, Democrats are nearly three times as likely to value living among diverse political opinions, with 30% compared to 11% of Republicans.

This nationwide survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted from August 25 to 28 using landlines and cell phones, has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

The responses from those who have chosen to live in more diverse areas included 18% of young adults aged 18 to 34, a demographic often in the process of deciding their future residence. This demographic also included 17% of Democrats versus just 5% of Republicans.

Roger Sierra, a 28-year-old independent voter in Miami who supports Republican Donald Trump, expressed concerns about how the wave of new residents is inflating housing costs and shifting Florida’s political landscape. He noted, “As more people with differing opinions move in, it could turn into something like New York or California, which I really do not want,” Sierra said in a phone interview following the poll. “I cannot stand those who just ‘vote blue, no matter who.’”

His family is contemplating a move to North Carolina, which he perceives as “a bit redder”. However, he also stated, “When it becomes a ‘vote red or else’ situation, that’s also not okay. I need some consistency.”

In Arizona and Florida, the greatest cited reasons for relocating were family (37% and 47%) and job opportunities (32% and 22%), with weather also being a significant factor for 23% in Florida.

A survey of 500 likely voters conducted by landline and cell phone in each state showed an error margin of 4.4 points. The Arizona survey was carried out from September 21 to 24, while the Florida survey took place from August 7 to 11.

Politics was a significant factor in these relocations.

Fifteen percent of individuals moving to Arizona stated that they believed the state aligned better with their values, compared to eleven percent of those moving to Florida who expressed a similar sentiment.

Conversely, 8% of residents in Florida indicated that they planned to relocate out of the state within the next four years. The main reason given was “Politics/DeSantis,” referring to Governor Ron DeSantis, with 40% citing this as their rationale.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Political Research Center, commented, “One must question whether these movements signify a new type of silent civil war. Not one with guns and militias, but a quiet divide from fellow Americans who live in neighboring states where lifestyles, laws, and political realities starkly differ.”

‘A completely different country’

Interactive maps illustrating voting patterns in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections reveal a growing expanse of bright red and blue regions across the nation. Many areas where presidential votes were closely contested are dwindling.

“Having relocated from Maryland to Ohio has been quite a change,” shared Liesl Semper, 58, a human-resources professional now residing in Akron. An independent voter, she supports Democrat Kamala Harris for president. “Ohio feels entirely distinct from Maryland, which is very, very blue, while Ohio is not.”

“I had various other reasons for my move,” she noted, “but I’ve found myself in a vastly different environment.”

Here are some noteworthy statistics:

• From 2012 to 2020, 73% of counties became more partisan, comprising 224 counties that turned bluer and 2,050 that became redder. (This discrepancy in numbers is not as pronounced as it appears, as red counties are generally found in sparsely populated rural areas, while blue counties are situated in densely populated cities and suburbs.)
• A total of 40 states exhibited increased partisanship, indicating that partisan inclinations intensified in over half of their counties. The exceptions included Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina, Utah, and Vermont. Alaska was excluded from this analysis since it reports by election districts instead of counties.
• Fewer than 20% of counties, specifically 19%, exhibited decreased partisanship over this period, shifting less blue (264 counties) or less red (317 counties). In essence, there was nearly a 4 to 1 ratio of counties becoming more partisan rather than less.
• Only 8% of counties experienced a change in political leaning, with 50 red counties turning blue and 208 blue counties shifting red.
• An even smaller fraction, just 5% of counties (161 in total), were decided by a margin of 5% or less in the 2020 elections, making them relatively competitive.

This sorting by state has rendered most regions of the country irrelevant in the fierce battle for the White House.

Throughout the fall, both Harris and Trump campaigns have concentrated on only seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the upper Midwest, along with North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada in the South and Southwest.

Results in other states are generally seen as settled.

This marks a historic shift. Political blogger Paul Radar’s calculations indicate that 33 states have consistently voted for the same party in every presidential election over the past two decades, from 2000 to 2020. In contrast, from 1960 to 1980, no state consistently voted for the same party across all presidential elections.

The ramifications of this trend extend beyond presidential elections, leading to less competitiveness in state and local elections as well, which further diminishes opportunities for dialogue and cooperation across party lines.

“There is reason to believe that one way to bridge divides—whatever they may be—is simply by interacting with different people,” remarked Enos, who heads Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies. This holds true for religious and racial diversities, and some scholars suggest that similar effects could apply to partisan lines. “Facilitating interactions is crucial, and the more we are segregated geographically, the more difficult this becomes.”

Crossing state lines

This trend presents a classic chicken-and-egg scenario.

The dominance of a single political party in most states—23 under Republican control and 17 under Democrats—has resulted in purely conservative policies in some red states and purely liberal ones in certain blue states. Consequently, many Americans indicate that these conservative and liberal policies have motivated their decisions to leave politically isolating environments or to seek locations where their views are more prevalent.

“My decision to relocate to California was partly influenced by the desire for safety and the comfort of being among more liberal and progressive individuals,” explained Kristina Calvert, 39, a Democrat who moved from Chicago to Sacramento, although she admitted it felt “strange” to regard politics in that context.

Routt County in Colorado, which is trending toward a more liberal stance, borders Carbon County in Wyoming, a state moving in the opposite direction. In the 2020 elections, Democrat Joe Biden won Routt County by 27.6 percentage points, while Trump won Carbon County by 53.5 percentage points.

The two Mountain West states have implemented vastly different policies over recent years.

Last year, the Wyoming legislature passed a groundbreaking law banning abortion pills, which was signed by Republican Governor Mark Gordon. The state also restricted abortions to instances of rape, incest, or severe risk to the mother’s health. (These laws are currently on hold pending legal challenges.) Additionally, the governor signed legislation in March prohibiting gender-affirming care for transgender minors.

In stark contrast, the Colorado legislature, in 2022, enacted a law, endorsed by Democratic Governor Jared Polis, that prohibits any governmental restrictions on abortion. Colorado became the first state to mandate that private insurance cover transgender care, and it also permits young individuals from other states to access gender-affirming care.

That is, to cross state lines.