The re-emergence of the Pac-12 came from a consultant’s financial proposal, but it quickly faced a rare circumstance in college sports and conference realignment: clear thinking and rationale from decision-makers.

When Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and UTSA announced on Monday that they would continue to compete in the American Athletic Conference for now, it was a significant victory for new conference commissioner Tim Pernetti. More importantly, it showcased the virtues of sound reasoning, financial insight, and realism.

This doesn’t mean these schools will stay forever. Memphis and South Florida, in particular, aspire to eventually join the ACC. However, there is a possibility that the Pac-12 might attempt to attract eight football schools (and possibly Gonzaga for basketball) into the lucrative television rights market, potentially making an offer to persuade a school like Memphis to join.

Nonetheless, this plan faces a significant limitation: Memphis, as one consultant mentioned to YSL News Sports, does not hold a much higher value for television rights holders compared to Utah State. Similarly, Oregon State and Washington State, the two original members of the Pac-12, are also not considered significantly more valuable than Memphis.

In essence, the newly reformed Pac-12 was unlikely to regain its status as a power conference regardless of which teams committed to join. The prospect of an approximate $12 million payout for each member, which had attracted Memphis (currently earning around $8-9 million in the AAC), was more hypothetical than real, based on estimates from the Pac-12’s hired consultants that lacked credibility across the collegiate sports landscape.

This also explains why the Pac-12 declined to cover Memphis’s hefty exit fees from the AAC; they recognized that financially backing a $20 million departure for a school that wouldn’t significantly contribute to the conference’s revenue wasn’t a wise business decision.

The financial analysis surprisingly favored the AAC maintaining its current structure, at least for now. What remains for the Pac-12 is the challenge of trying to recruit whatever it can from the Mountain West, starting with Utah State and UNLV.

However, if this is the outcome that Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould envisions, one must wonder: what was the goal behind all this?

A conference consisting of Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State, Washington State, Utah State, and UNLV would essentially mirror the very league these schools just opted to leave, albeit with a few lesser-performing teams removed.

While this structure is acceptable, especially from a geographical and cultural perspective, if television networks were paying around $5 million to these teams as members of the Mountain West, what justification is there for increasing that figure under the Pac-12 umbrella?

This is why, within college sports, the entire Pac-12 situation has been perceived as odd and illogical. Even among the few AAC schools considered for recruitment, there was more uncertainty than excitement about the kind of conference they might be joining.

Was there initial interest? Certainly. But there was also significant apprehension and outright disdain regarding the idea that schools in different time zones (and for USF, specifically the Eastern time zone) would regularly have to send their athletes on lengthy travel days for a league that wouldn’t be recognized or compensated as a power conference.

Memphis, according to sources close to the negotiations, had been in talks with the Big East last week to consider joining for basketball and other sports while pursuing a football-only membership with the Pac-12. However, due to the tight timeline, concerns regarding fit from the Big East’s perspective (as it largely consists of private Catholic institutions aside from UConn), and uncertainty about Pac-12 financial stability, Memphis found itself with no choice but to reaffirm its commitment to the AAC for the time being.

After being rebuffed by the four key AAC schools and with the Mountain West offering financial incentives to retain their remaining eight schools, the Pac-12 is quickly running out of time and options.

The best solution for college sports and the broader Group of Five conferences would be for the six remaining Pac-12 schools to pursue merger discussions with the AAC.

The AAC, which is exploring various private equity initiatives under Pernetti, had previously expressed interest in a merger with both the Mountain West (before the Pac-12 attempted to poach teams) and the newly formed Pac-12. Nonetheless, according to two insiders, these talks have never gained momentum.

A merger could be complex and sensitive, yet it might pave the way for a robust “best of the rest” conference with national reach, straightforward divisional arrangements, and manageable travel schedules.

Across the realm of college athletics, many administrators concur that fostering cooperation among the leaders of these conferences is essential for the Group of Five’s survival and success.

However, the past week has demonstrated that they are still preoccupied with attempts to undermine one another, revealing the strength and weaknesses of each conference.

The Pac-12 may once have been a dominant force, but the recent events have made it clear: it has lost its former significance.