‘I Was Mistaken’: Allan Lichtman Misjudges Election Results
He made an error.
At least, that’s what the voters decided.
Allan Lichtman, a historian renowned for predicting 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections, incorrectly forecasted the winner of the race for the 47th president of the United States.
In a surprising twist, former President Donald Trump triumphed over Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, to reclaim the presidency on Tuesday night.
“After a long night, I’m taking some time to reflect on why I was wrong and what lies ahead for America,” Lichtman told YSL News on Wednesday morning.
The professor from American University had believed that Harris would win the election narrowly.
Despite losing the 2020 election, Trump navigated numerous difficulties including two impeachments, a criminal conviction, and two assassination attempts.
During a nearly six-hour podcast hosted by his son, Samuel Lichtman, on Tuesday, the 77-year-old historian expressed his astonishment at the election results.
Join us Thursday for an analysis of the results
In a post on X later Wednesday, Lichtman expressed gratitude to “all the dedicated members, subscribers, and viewers of our live event,” and mentioned he would discuss his incorrect prediction later this week.
“We’re moving on and evaluating the results from last night,” he stated. “Be sure to join us Thursday at 9 PM Eastern for a recap of what transpired.”
‘At some point, the numbers just don’t add up’
The well-known forecaster insisted that his ’13 keys’ framework indicated a win for Harris.
With this system, Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 out of 11 presidential elections since 1984. His only other miss was in the year 2000 when George W. Bush, a Republican, triumphed over Democrat Al Gore.
Lichtman had noted that national exit polls indicated democracy was a key concern for voters, while the economy remained the top issue, followed by matters like abortion (14%) and immigration (11%).
“If she can win Pennsylvania, she’s still in the game,” Lichtman remarked just before the final hour of the program when Nevada results had yet to come in. “She is running out of votes.”
Pennsylvania was ultimately won by Trump.
“At some point, the numbers simply don’t add up,” his son commented toward the end of the interview. “This has been craziness. I think we both feel a bit surprised.”
‘I believe she has lost’
“I think she has lost,” his son declared in the last 10 minutes of the show.
“I agree,” Lichtman replied instantly, placing his hands on his temples. “Something extraordinary would need to happen. I’m still hoping for a Pennsylvania miracle, but I doubt it.”
“I’ve been receiving many kind emails,” Lichtman mentioned to his son, “expressing that regardless of the outcome, people respect my vote.”
“The math doesn’t add up,” Lichtman reiterated. “The figures are clear.”
“I can’t wrap my head around this,” his son replied. “I’m honestly in disbelief at the moment.”
To which Lichtman responded, “It is indeed hard to take in.”